You are currently browsing the tag archive for the ‘Trump’ tag.
Despite the newest attempt to open the email controversy again, and the bumbling attempt by FBI Director Comey to throw cold water on Hillary’s red hot sizzling run for the gold, this is not the time to panic. It is not even the time to worry. She’s got this…
We know that of the 270 electoral votes required to win, all of those come from states where Hillary’s projections are above 93.7% to win… To lose those states it would have to drop 43.7% points to 50% which could still happen, but so could a meteor materialize and slam into earth.. Don’t laugh, it happened 65 million years ago!
Currently polls show Hillary holding at 333 electoral votes. This is created by averaging all the polls together and using that average for each state, and adding all those Clinton states together. Some of those states are in the high 80%, the 70’s, the 60’s.. and some are around 55%… States lower than 55% are not counted in the totals because they are too close to call….
Now these aggregate numbers are two weeks old because the polls have to come out first, and then they have to all be totaled together. But the candidates themselves all do live polling which means they have real time data. Trumps data confirms to the that of Nate Silver’s 538 according to an insider interview in a Business Insider article. He knows he’s lost.
Today, David Plouffe tweeted all to relax, 300 was rock solid, which means the live polling being done all day Saturday, is showing that people are not changing.. Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona can all stay red and Hillary still coasts in without any problem…
But of course we want to run up the score.. So stay cool, don’t panic and work up the score. Being Sunday it is easy to allude to a NFL game in the last minutes of the 4th Quarter. We were up 3 touchdowns and about to put in the 2nd string, when the FBI leakage counted as one for their side. They still have to get 2 more before the clock runs out, and even if they do, they still have to go through overtime…
Now, we have seen great games where that does happen, and it may make us nervous to see them rejuvenated after we thought they were put away.. But, if you remember what always happens in those great comeback scenarios, is that the winning team has a turnover error which results in a touch down for the other side.
Turnovers come about when you panic. There is no need to panic. In fact , a return touchdown on our part, will literally suck ALL the wind out of their sails..
She’s got this.
Here then is what you just told me….
1) You want to be ruled, not governed….You want a dictator in the style of Putin, which pretty much makes you anti-American.
2. You have no class…. Mocking a disabled person, telling your crowd to beat on a protester, and tweeting innuendo at 3am is your idea of being a real classy guy…
3. You are definitely not someone to do business with….. Words like truth, integrity, honor, and duty, mean nothing to you… To you good business is cheating someone and getting away with it….
4. You are either a racist, or at best, have no problem with racism….. Dude, stop denying it… You’re racist…
5. You have an issue with women….. “#*#$%!&*^%$% b/tch!!! ” Ahhh. you feel at home now….
6. You aren’t really Christian….. Being a bully, who only made his money on casinos, who has had several wives and several affairs, who cheats those he contracts to do services for him, is not someone a real Christian can stand behind. …
7. You don’t believe in the Constitution Get a copy from Mr. Kahn and read it…Shutting down mosques, curbing free speech, denying legal representation, and punishing the Press for disagreeing with you, are the opposite of what the Bill of Rights requires us to do. What you do support is the governance model for the old Soviet Union, Mao’s China, or Fidel’s Cuba….
All the above mean to us that whenever you criticize Hillary or Obama it is meaningless…. You might as well be criticizing them from inside Putin’s Russia… You certainly aren’t using American values for your criticizing…
The more with which time passes, the more one sees how some things always stay the same.
This is something unrealized by youth… I certainly couldn’t see it, though many elderly tried to project their insight into me.. I simply lacked enough background to understand.
But seeing the return of things you fought to vanquish and were once successful, as well as expanding ones knowledge-base across many cultures, times, and distances, one tends to see a larger pattern in effect that probably is conducive to our survival…
Here is how it relates to conservatives and liberals, democracy and our ultimate survival…. .
No matter who you are, when you are, or where you are, if you are comfortable in your position, you tend to lean towards conservatism… Why wouldn’t you? It’s what enabled you to get and keep what you have… On the other hand, when you have nothing but dreams listed as your assets, you’ll insist on change, or newness, or something better than what you have.. Why shouldn’t you? Who would want to stay in the same decrepit conditions one finds themselves when they don’t have to?
And so democracy is simply a mechanism that allows for the ebb and flow of fortunes to change policy so parity is maintained for the most part…
When a majority of people are doing better than those who are not, then keeping what is working now is best for that society as a whole. On the other hand if it it not working, then changing ones course is better for that society. That makes so much sense, does it not?
So being a liberal in a time of economic well being is, how should we say politely, being “very forward thinking”?… Likewise being a conservative in a time of turmoil, could be rather dangerous, being so outnumbered so… you better hope you are “well liked”….
It is rare that events outside the human experience impact us on a large scale. Most of what affects us drastically (wars, Depressions, power grabs) usually comes from mankind’s own doing:… acts where we consciously chose to go a certain route, and more or less, damned all the torpedoes that got in the way.
Today we are in a bru-ha-ha of our own making…. Most of it directly came from our choosing to go towards giving the top 1% all of our money and keeping less for ourselves… It was a conscious decision on our parts. We elected enough Republicans to allow them to do what they told us they would do. It was no secret. We made a bad decision.
The experiment failed. They kept all the money and none trickled down, at least here within our borders… Our wealth actually built up China, which is great for them, but that hasn’t helped us much.
When one finds out one is losing something important, one hangs onto it harder… Which means someone has to try harder to take it away, right?… This gives insight into the harshness and lack of decorum in politics today… The ugliness we see today in Conservatives, and the hard clenching tenacity we see in Liberals, we’ve seen before in this country. We had it in the 1820’s between the old guard wealth of the Eastern Seaboard, and the wide individualistic wealth newly available across our national heartland. We saw it in the 1850’s as slavery hit the hot button and both sides became bitterly entrenched as support for slavery evaporated into a cauldron of gunpowder. It only took one spark. We saw it in the 1890’s as the capitalists grabbed up more and more companies, crushed workers rights, and the workers in cities became less and less empowered. Finally Republican Progressivism broke out of the chokehold. Then WWI flipped the scales back to big business and an investment boom followed by a Great Depression again created the necessary environment for another total sweep of old for new. That “new” lasted 60 years until it succumbed to having been so successful so that so many numbers who had previously benefited from liberal policies switched allegiances to keep their assets to themselves… And that leads to today, where our individualistic efforts to improve ourselves simply were not enough to balance ourselves comfortably against wealth and power and we are again looking at more government interaction…
So rawness and candor have always been part of politics. Always will be. Some things never change. (Some of us love it, btw.)
So what is happening today is that the post Republican Depression economy has made mockery out of those “traditional” Republican values and the only thing they have to hold on to power right now, is their appeal to the prejudiced. Against this direct solicitation, Progressives continue to offer a new vision of hope to millennials, or the return to the old vision of what actually worked well for 60 years to those still alive who actually lived it.
The conservatives count the votes and know their time is numbered. Population trends have pointed this out for many years. Which readily explains why they focus on ways and methods to limit large numbers of those voting, and have vacated all plans to appeal to new members… No surprise here.
In this election conservative policy has been reduced to stem complete annihilation of their party… For whereas they have failed over the past 16 years, Progressives have succeed across that same time. By going hog-wild on bigotry, they are using the only tactic with which they know how to keep some members in their party from flipping…
Bigotry is a “thing” unfortunately… And right now…. it is the only “thing” Republicans have to garner one single vote this November… Unless of course, it is ….. “wild hair”…
I really do appreciate Donald Trump… Historians will look back and mark his presidential run as the necessary step required to get America moving again… As all know, things have been stale ever since the last Clinton left the White House…
But Donald has stripped all cloaking off the Republican Party and unmasked it for what it always has been… If you are a bigot, it IS the party for you… Relax! Feel at home there…
And basically that has been his entire appeal though he is not at all a bigot himself. He actually invited the Clintons to his wedding. But he chose to be direct in his hostility to others and that truth and honesty has rendered all the former Republican cloaking devices inoperable…
If you are a bigot…. the Republican party is for you. Now donate, advocate, and GOTV your fellow bigots to get out and vote…..
Not sure if you’re a bigot? Need an example of bigotry?…. “Gosh, I hate Spongebob.. I want someone to just shred him into a 1000 pieces… Gosh, he makes me vomiting sick…That stupid giggle..’Heh, heh, heh”. I wish I could pull that little bent nose right off his face…”
If you feel that way about any class of beings, the Republican Party is YOUR HOME. All the people left there now, are JUST LIKE YOU….
And that is refreshing. It calls a spade a spade. It actually cuts through the polite discourse of having to use euphemisms to explain the secret racism endemic in the Republican Party while using bent-over-backwards political correctness… Now you can flat out say, in public, right out loud, “I’m a proud Republican and I ‘effin’ HATE everyone with brown skin!!!….”
What that means is that if an unfortunate majority of people also feel that way, then that is what America will become… That is not likely.
Almost giddily, many of us are interested in seeing how the numbers actually do stack up in order to better gauge the psyche of the American people. Marketers are especially foaming at the mouth to see the county by county breakdowns of poll results in order to understand each locality’s psychology. ..
Trump is doing America a great service…..(provided he doesn’t win, of course)…..
Here’s the problem….. He’s the elephant in the room so no one can talk about anything else… As one personal example, I was just thinking back over the past two weeks and asked myself, what do I know about Clinton after the convention? Answer? Her race speech… That was it… To that I could tell you 30 things about Donald Trump these past 3 weeks.
But the real dilemma here is in its local impact… Recently a power grab took place by deputies in the Delaware Department of Education, to take money from public schools and give it to charters. The Secretary of Education himself was kept in the dark until Exceptional Kevin at Exceptional Delaware broke it into the open… A few people got irate, and if Delaware Liberal is any indication, the few standard commenters all went “tsk, tsk”, and returned to talking about Trump….
This should have been huge… Like the coup in Turkey… (btw, what’s happening over there, anyway, haven’t heard anything lately)…… See?
And it is hard to get excited over a direct theft of taxpayers’ money (supposedly earmarked to the teaching of America’s children) by some personal friends of the Governor, when you have an orgy of pot-bellied old men flagellating each other on your front lawn… You kinda have to talk about the deviant behavior first and then work your way backwards…
What’s happening is that their is SO MUCH DEVIANT BEHAVIOR you never reach what is truly important….
Which means…..
Now is the time to commit crime because
- a) no one is watching.
- b) no one will listen if someone actually does see and tells,
- c) who really cares! THERE ALL THESE OLD MEN FLAGELLATING EACH OTHER ON YOUR FRONT LAWN….
So…. as you can guess, that is a problem… because sooner or later those naked old men will be gone, and the grass will grow over the stains of their sins, but the reality of our lives, will be forever changed for the worst…..
In real life, there comes a time when that person in your life who is always cutting up for attention becomes a nuisance…
WE are there, now….
Trump needs so start a party called the Trump Party..
If he can pull his current total of 33% of Republican votes out of the Republican Party, then at last presidential elections’s levels that would amount to 59,142,004 X .33 = 19,516,861… (Which would leave 102,240,549 left to be split between all 3 candidates…) The winner would need 40,585,803 to claim victory of the popular vote. Which means Trump would only need to pull 21,068,942 more from either Republicans, Independents, or Democrats to win the whole thing… But as the sole Republican nominee, if chosen, he will need 60,878,705 to win the popular vote… and will have to completely earn every one of the Republican votes given Romney in 2012, plus an additional… 1,736,701 from those who voted for Obama… To be clear, as the Republican nominee, he will need zero defections (not likely) plus 1,736,701 pulled over from die-hard Obama supporters.
Numbers alone, say his chances are far better to start up the Trump Party….. For if he does, even if he loses, he makes more money as a star commentator than he ever would as president under a capped salary… Considering everything he owned currently carries the Trump name, Trump Towers, Trump Taj Majah, Ivana Trump, I think the name Trump Party is very fitting with his personality and would resonate with lots of voters. You would not be voting for a status quo president if you supported the Trump Party. No question there.
Based on how well he’s doing so far, when he sees these numbers I’m betting he goes back on the worthless pledge he made and creates the Trump Party to win the thing outright….
But of course, the electoral college presents a whole different ball game… Which states would give him a majority, we lack data at this early time frame….
I was going to end there but am now intrigued by the electoral possibilities… Of the 538, he would need 179 to clinch a three way race….
I’d give him Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Arkansas, provided a business class type moderate takes the Republican nomination… That would be 139 electoral college votes.
The big question is Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia….. all swing states. If Donald is enough of an iconoclast all the way up to election day, then many of those who don’t vote because they think everyone is the same, may vote for the first time in large enough numbers to overcome the urban majorities that make those states blue…. If those three flip narrowly… then respectively he gains 29, 15, 13 for a total of 196. Since he only need 179, he could lose either Virginia or North Carolina and still become…President elect Trump…..
And it’s all because of his strong stance against all immigration… I don’t think he can win in a two person race, but it is possible that he wins as the third party spoiler candidate….
(originally posted on Allan Loudell’s blog)
kavips 