You are currently browsing the tag archive for the ‘Russia’ tag.
If I said… “Hey, dude, what happened 100 years ago today?”…. about 4 out of every 25,000 of you, would know and answer back with a question…. “Are you sure you are not talking about 100 years yesterday?” You would be officially right of course… June 28th…. But I would be “politically” right, I guess, (struggling for an adjective to describe the rightness I would be..).
To fill in the rest of the 24,996 of you…. yesterday marked the 100th anniversary of the shooting of the Archduke of Ferdnand,,,,
“Who the fvck is that?” say 24,996 people all at once…. (People in Oklahoma hear that rumble as another frack quake..)
Since reality is 100% of reality, I’ll take that on….
In 1914… there were 5 nations that mattered. One of the nations that didn’t matter back then would have been the United States; others: China, and Japan… The 5 nations that were relevant back then actually included Russia, believe it or not…. with Germany, France, Britain, and Austria-Hungary rounding out the full 5… This last nation, I always think of as a joke, and say so sometimes… (“What? Austria’s Hungry? What a joke!”) That is because I tend to ignorant of anything southeast of Germany… I’m an American, you know…
Austria Hungary was called the Dual Kingdom… Can you guess why? One was Austria, the other was Hungary. Austria ran Austria/ Hungary ran Hungary, and a couple of times a year they got together to coordinate… Those episodes resembled today’s divided Congress. Neither side would accept the provisions of the other…. and stalemate meant each could go their own way with little interference from the other… However on security matters they were conjoined… Austria had the military; a standing army of 900,000.. and Hungary bordered Russia from where any major attack would come…
To the south the ancient empire of the Ottoman Turks was decaying from its inside. Recognizing that most of the Empire’s attention had to be focused inside of Turkey proper, all 5 relevant nations begin eyeing the Balkans and Dardanelles and sizing each other up… Significantly, Russia was very nervous over the Dardanelles because the wrong person owning that property, could bottle her navy inside the Black Sea…
Austria had, in just a very few years before, annexed Bosnia, roughly the same size as it is today, by marching in and calling it their own… Serbia, had wanted the same, but was too small to do anything about it and no one came to their aid…. But people inside of Bosnia who had wanted Serbia to control it, had financial resources made available to help make that happen…
The archduke was the next in line to the Austrian emperor, who himself was getting quite old. Both the archduke and emperor were primarily pacifists who didn’t believe that war was profitable. But like any nation, within their cabinet as well as in charge of their military, they had well-spoken ministers who argued that a “shock and awe” first strike was always the best option…
Unfortunately for the world, it was one of those two pacifists who was assassinated 100 years ago today…. along with his wife… killed by what today would be considered a terrorist cell of about 5 people total… working independently… meeting in secret. etc. etc. They botched their previous attempts and by today’s standards were almost comical, until they finally got lucky on number 3…
Some people got the word 100 years yesterday… June 28th. Who these were, were mostly heads of state, many of whom were on summer vacation so telegrams had to jump all over the country, and in some places be put on skiffs and rushed out to meet the heads of states floating in the Baltic…. No one at first predicted what this assassination would preclude… Those who firmly believed in war, thought it precluded war. However most thought that was too unreasonable and assumed everyone would of course get mad first, then settle down and make certain arrangements and life would eventually go on as normal….. After all, worse crises had been settled such….
There were two small problems… One involved the signing of treaties, some secret and some not, that tied promises of reaction to any military invasions of one of the signatories… The other, was the Victorian mode of character which dictated that one dutifully filled out one’s signed obligations, regardless if they had been originally made in error… One filled out ones obligations and damned the torpedoes.
In efforts to preserve a peaceful Europe, (which had been effective for 40+ years, and probably a world record at that time)…. alliances had been made loosely between Britain, France, and Russia… With the two extremes of East and West appearing united, this left vulnerable those who could get crunched in the middle, so they formed an alliance too: Germany and Austria-Hungary….
But no one ever thought they’d be used. Ever! Europe was one chummy place. The heads of England, Germany, Russia were all related, and met for state weddings and funerals regularly. Vienna was one of the playful destinations in Europe, and socialites from all 5 nations frequented there every summer… It and Paris vied for the Art & Music capitols of Europe… Tension was not like during our Cold War at all. Europe was very open and much like international relations today, where one could travel freely, where all the big powers meet occasionally and decided how to deal with each of little tweaks and interruptions….
So 100 years ago today, people woke up to this assassination story …. Today (yesterday) is the real beginning of the count-down-clock because for the first time in European history, the populations inside the nations were to have a profound impact on the upcoming events to come… (even though the structures of the governments were very closed to all but the upper crust of society…) Public opinion primarily through the growth of large metropolitan newspapers, had become an influence that had to be “reckoned with”.
For Austria Hungary was hot! You can imagine if Joe Biden was killed. Though some here love him, and some here make fun of him, … were he assassinated, this entire nation would demand retribution…. So Serbia got blamed…. In Austria-Hungary, with one pacifist dead, and the other now solo against a cabinet calling for an invasion, the call to go to war with Serbia came quickly…
Serbia appealed to their soul mate Russia. There had always been a deep Slavic bond between the two nations… and the head of Russia, when confronted with the fact that his people would rebel against him if he ignored his brother nation’s plea, said Russia would attack Serbia’s attacker if Serbia were attacked by Austria Hungary… Military philosophy at this time dwelt solely on the benefit of a quick attack. All armies were trained to attack, not defend. Simply put, the philosophy was that if you attacked quick enough, you always won… And all nations suffered from this delusion, though reality had showed it certainly hadn’t worked in all the proxy wars (Boer, Sudan, Balkans)…. As Austria began to mobilize her troops towards Belgrade, Serbia’s capital, Russia began mobilization to send it’s troops to the Austria-Hungarian border….
Austria Hungary had the second largest standing army in Europe (Russia had the largest due to its gigantic size relative to European nations) but even still, Austria-Hungary could not both defend its border, and attack/occupy Serbia simultaneously… Therefore they appealed to Kaiser Wilhelm to promise an attack on Russia if Russia attacked The Dual Kingdom… Previous handshakes had sealed the deal long before, and the Kaiser promised he would….
Now this caused a dilemma within Germany’s army. Their plan had long called for first attacking France … France was the more dangerous of the two, so it made great sense to defeat France first and then attack Russia, instead of attacking Russia and have a fit France barge in through the back door… No one had ever considered the option that perhaps a minor limited war with Russia could happen first without French involvement. But plans were plans and the detail in them was so meticulous that there was really no option to opt-out and siphon off troops to the Russian Border…. (all the trains would be tied up and busy carrying soldiers to the West) until after France and fallen and signed their surrender… The surprise Russian build-up now meant it was more imperitive than ever that France surrender before Russia could mobilize to march into Prussia proper….
France was insistent that it would not make the first move. They tried to dissuade Russia to stand down, but Russia’s people felt a personal insult (and a rational fear of internal overthrow) if Serbia fell, so that didn’t happen. The French who were the villains of the last European War( the Franco-Prussian War that ended in 1870… a quick war, which France had lost, and been paying repatriation upon for a long time), were very squeamish about being considered the aggressor again, and so they mobilized defensive forces and fortified their common border with Germany, just in case.
Britain’s Prime Ministe firmly believed in making alliances but also keeping them secret so both his allies and enemies would be left guessing… He was so good at it, that the Kaiser was convinced upon invasion, that Britain would definitely not interfere and that Paris would fall quickly as had long been planned (across twenty years)….
The accidental player in this scenario, turned out to be the tiny little neutral nation of Belgium…… With no real army and a reputation for being a peaceful take-what-comes population, its future role had been dismissed by Germany, France and Britain… Germany simply assumed that it being a neutral nation, it would take the gentlemanly course and let the German’s pass through unopposed to attack France where it lacked defenses. Britain and France had assumed due to its neutrality, Belgium would be off limits for any German advance….
As troop deployments began to show the German’s hand, four nations raced to shore up that area…. Belgium said it would not allow German passage and began to mobilize its defense…. (This infuriated the Kaiser who apoplectically raged how dare that tiny nation not fall in line with Germany’s plans; who did they think they were?)… which shows how reality and clear thinking often had little voice in governments at that time…. Assumptions made by whomever was annointed head of state, tended to always carry the heavier weight.
With everything ready and the impetus on the Axis (Germany/Austria) to strike quickly and the Entente (Britain, France, Russia) to wait and only fight defensively, all pieces were in place for what everyone thought, would be a short little war… Most analysts assumed everyone lacked resources or the will to fight in order for it to carry over 2 months… “By Christmas all the troops would be home” each nation’s people were promised….
What impressed me most upon looking back from a 100 years’ perspective and I guess it is true with any war, was how life went on normally for 99.999% of the world’s population while this crises brewed… Future weddings were planned, meetings between future adversaries were scheduled, treaties and statements of purpose continued to be signed between the future enemies… At any point, if anyone powerful enough had said, “STOP! let’s talk about it”, (as is done so often today it now seems like an extra step), this war would have been prevented… If Russia had not mobilized, this would have remained a local conflict, taking place only on Serbian hillside whose outcome have been very quickly settled. Or if Britain had been forthright, stating that it would come to France’s aid and attack German interests, then the cost of war would have risen to where the Kaiser would have backed down from attacking France first and would have made a deal with Russia… If Germany had not been locked so deep into its own plans, so that once the order was given to mobilize it started everything which precipitated the next step automatically like a line of dominoes. …. if any of these occurred prior to the First World War , history would be far different today; The First World War would not have happened…..
The suddenness is simply mind boggling. How could Europe go from congeniality and peace and prosperity and hope, to an all-out brawl. Like a bar fight that erupts instantly leaving lifelong scars?
It would be like today… if we opened our paper and read the news that one of Putin’s emissaries was assassinated in Sevastopol, Crimea…. And… by this upcoming Saturday (July 5th), Russia had asked China if it will help fight and China agrees. .. and exactly two and a half weeks later on July 23, Putin’s Russia surprises the world with an ultimatum to Ukraine designed to be so harsh that the Ukraines cannot possibly accept it. The world holds its breath, and the 5 day deadline passes, and Russia declares war on the Ukraine…. July 28th, exactly on month from today!
NATO mobilizes, beginning with their declaration… . All NATO units are then put on full reserve and active units are then moved into Turkey, Uzbekistan, Poland, and Finland, positioned along their borders with Russia….
On the last day of this month, July, China calls upon the NATO to stop its mobilization…. NATO says no; it is mobilizing solely against Russia and for only the protection of the Ukraine people…. Then on August 1st, China declares war on NATO, including the US….
The very next day, August 2nd, China bloodlessly rushes in to occupy North Korea … China then demands of South Korea to let them use its seaports to facilitate their landing craft invasion against Japan. They promise that after hostilities are over, all Korea will be free and promise it can under them become one nation again…
The very next day, on August 3rd, China declares that the state of war now exists between it and Japan, Taiwan, North Vietnam, and the Philippines, and moves their navy into blockade those ports… All those nations plea for help from the US and the US promises it….. South Korea to the Chinese surprise, announces despite overwhelming odds, it will NOT grant permission for China to enter peacefully, NOR allow Chinese military hardware into its country…. A brief testing skirmish occurs on the 53 parallel between US and Chinese troops becoming the first engagement of the war…. On this same day unknown to almost everyone, China and most Latin America nations sign a secret treaty…. relating strictly with the US and stating that if China is attacked, Latin America will side with China in order to protect their massive investments there….
The very next day, August 4th. China swiftly invades South Korea and quickly over runs Seoul and commandeers all the ports on the peninsula. China’s massive merchant marine of commercial cargo ships out of nowhere suddenly gather outside all of Korea’s ports. The US protests. calling for China to leave Korea. China flatly says it won’t. The US declares war on China…. The Chinese merchant marine begins loading up the 2 million troops and lands them on the remote undefended section of north-western Japan… Within 7 days, 2 million Chinese are moving towards Tokyo….
The very next day, August 5th… Latin America surprises all and closes shuts down all commerce with the US, closing it’s borders… All US firms have their property confiscated to be nationalized and the Panama Canal is closed to all but Latin American and Chinese traffic…
The very next day, August 6th… Putin’s Russia declares war on the US and NATO….. and for what it is worth, the Ukraine declares war on China….
The very next day, August 7th… The first US troops from Okinawa, land in Japan and rush north to engage the advancing Chinese… Battles ensue and the Chinese throughout the next week, till the 13th, win all of them…
The very next day: August 8th… NATO and the US finally declare war on Russia…
For the next week, all eyes focus on China’s advance to Tokyo. Then one week later, August 15th… Ukraine counter attacks a Russian outpost on its border, and regains control of the entire border area… The Russians run back across the border. It will be the first allied victory of the war…
Two days later… August 17th… The US and NATO forces invade Russia proper upward from Uzbeckistan, and upwards from Turkey through Sochi, and eastward into Belarus from Poland, and towards Leningrad from Finland….
==========
4 years later, 2018, the armistice will be signed, leaving 37 million souls dead…. 93 million wounded for life…. and 34 million people simply missing… never heard from again…. And the borders between most of the big players will primarily remain just as they are… ( Hopefully all parties refrained from nuclear weapons….. or citizen causalities would be uncountable.) Unsettled emotional antagonisms will continue to fester, and won’t be settled until after the next great war beginning in 2039…..
=========
This is how life changing that event was 100 years ago…. Literally it came out of nowhere….. Just take a moment to consider the breathtaking speed with how fast this occurred and stretch your imagination wide enough to take in us being in a full fledged real world war equivalent to WWI in less than one month and 5 days from today, as you read this and the News Journal and fret over Greg Lavelle… ….. Maybe this could happen today, maybe not. You and I need to make sure the “not” wins out…. were such a crises to occur.
The lessons of yesteryear are so lost on us today, as I’m afraid they are on every new generation. I only share interest because of a personal bond with a relative, who was called to France in 1918. So unlike most today, this history to me is something very real. Upon my passing, there will then be no one to remind us of how stupidity can sometimes take over an ruin a world of good… But for the rest of you, 100 years ago today you would be just reading about this life-changing first step in the paper…. (yawn) another assassination in Crimea… possibly thinking “awwww… how sad”… but never dreaming it would within four years time, cause you to lose your entire family in the same amount of time that briefly passes between two World Cups….
Life should never be taken for granted. Lesson. Always be vigilant against war. Always.
Sometimes one of the exercises one must go through in executive training is a workshop where one puts oneself in another’s shoes. This exercise broadens the perspective of a budding young exec and gives them the rare view not often allowed, of seeing his own problems from his adversaries’ perspective…
Since one is too often, too deep in one’s own crises to think objectively, the formula is to take one’s own fears, correlate them in a fabricated parallel situation, and then role play…. The lesson is that things are often not as simple and clear cut as one naturally assumes, where one sees themselves as good, thereby making all against them, evil…
So, with your indulgence….
May 1st, 2014….
A flash mob of armed farmers stormed the Capitol building in Harrisburg today and took control of the building. The police officers were disarmed and allowed to leave. Hostages are still inside.
May 2nd.
The police of Harrisburg have surround the capitol, but are dwarfed as crowds approaching a million have spontaneously poured in from across Pennsylvania’s countryside in support of the demonstrators inside. The police are taunted and are awaiting reinforcements.
Late afternoon riot police from Philadelphia, with heavy machinery, have arrived. They are expected to storm the building at dawn. The Governor of PA has now officially called this an illegal takeover and has stressed that the supporters give up and go home.
May 3rd. At dawn the Philadelphia police storm the building and with guns blazing, meet fierce resistance. They pull back. The crowds have grown larger as Patriot Groups across the nation have sounded the alarm. Volunteers are pouring in from all over the United States. The Tea Party is now calling for the overthrow of the entire government of PA and the formulation of a new one, more closely aligned to the needs of the country music loving people of rural Pennsylvania….
May 4th. The governor again calls the meeting illegal but the crowds are bigger than the police. It is a stalemate.
May 5th. The federal government has negotiated an agreement between the governor and the demonstrators. The demonstration will be dismissed, and the governor will listen to the needs of the Tea Party and the patriots.
Late afternoon, Sheriff Arapao from Hokey, Dokey Arizona, has called for the elimination of the governor, to be replaced by a constitutional sheriff as head of an interim government.
May 6th. Shots were fired into the crowd by unknown assailants. 100 demonstrators were killed. In the morning the crowd, angered, stormed the capitol to find it empty, doors and files all unlocked, and computer running. No one has seen the governor or his officers.
May 7th. Still no sign of the governor. The head of the Harrisburg Patriot Group declared himself as head of the interim government. and his followers to be the legislative body. In rapid succession they passed several measures…. Taxes were abolished. Slavery of the Negro reinstated. Government welfare abolished. English only could be spoken. No restrictions on buying or selling weaponry of any kind. All questions of legality would be handled by the interim government. And it was also deemed legal to kill any man, woman, or child, for not going to what was considered a “true Christian” church on Sunday morning…
May 8th. Rejoicing erupts spontaneously in the mountains and countryside of PA… South-eastern PA is in shock. Particularly among the dominant Afro-American population, Hispanics, Asians and Muslims. City leaders governing Philadelphia and surrounding counties, say they will respect the interim government’s authority as being that of the state, and try to hold Pennsylvania together… “We are still one state” they say “and will work within the framework provided.”.. There is considerable angst among the blacks however…
May 9th. The US Navy pulls into the Philadelphia Shipyard, where hundreds of mothballed ships lie. The US says it is simply protecting its assets. Civic groups call for the US to send in additional troops to protect Philadelpians. They say they would rather remain in the US than become part of this new Pennsylvania run by Tea Partiers gone amok.
Sheriff Arapao calls on the US not to interfere or intervene and says doing so will be seen as an act of aggression toward the patriots and the US will suffer dire consequences if they do.
The US responds that an Arizona Sheriff has no jurisdiction in Philadelphia.
May 11th. Reports that multiple convoys of armored personal carriers have crossed the Walt Whitman and Ben Franklin bridges and have now entered Philadelphia. Conveys were also reported seen along I 95 in Delaware and heading north upwards through Chester, and also up from Maryland along Route 1….
May 12th… The US reports it is not acquiring Philadelphia, but is merely setting a perimeter to protect its new base in the shipyard. Sheriff Arapao is calling on the complete removal of all troops except for the original ones originally located in the shipyard. The US responds that given the violent antics of the Tea Party in Harrisburg, they simply don’t have the trust factor with this new regime to do so.
May 12th. The ousted governor of PA surfaces and holds a press conference in Washington DC and calls for the reinstatement of his government, calling the coup an illegal use of force and an action condoned by no laws or precedents.
Citizens in Philadelphia hold massive demonstrations along the Ben Franklin Parkway in support of a future US occupation. Tea Partiers are holed up in their militia armories, blockaded and surrounded by US forces. There has been no bloodshed reported.
May 13th. The interim government of Tea Partiers has called on the US to leave. The US now has said it is there to stay…. Sheriff Arapao contends that the US is planning to take over all of Eastern PA. The US says that should be decided by referendum, the people have the right to choose with whom they wish to be governed. Sheriff Arapao says that is unfair because everyone knows that in such a vote, most of urban PA would side with staying in the US and not elect to be under the rowdy independence of a sheriff and his posse….
May 14th. Local Tea Party citizens not affiliated with the interim government descend upon the Mexican community of Hazelton and set fire to houses of Mexicans and burn their cars…
May 15th… African communities across the state of PA, and particularly in Pittsburgh, reported sightings of armed men in white robes and several crosses were burned in Three Rivers Point. There were also reported incidents of bricks thrown through windows of minority businesses.
May 16th. Breaking. The interim government just issued a proclamation on sheepskin that declares that no Afro-Americans, no low income, and no Mexicans will be hither allowed in public schools or public buildings. They use is only for white people.
The US immediately calls on them to change, staying those with colored skin that is darker than white, also have rights as well. Sheriff Arapao says the posse do, what the posse do. That is what freedom is… sometimes.
May 17th. The US puts 40,000 troops along the extended border of PA. Is says it is for field training Sheriff Arapao calls it provocative and sends out a call for patriots everywhere to matriculate into PA to fight the US imperialists.
May 18th. Armed personal waving US flags occupy the West Chester Courthouse this morning . There was no blood shed. All participants appearing to be afro-Americans, were masked, well organized and said wore American flags on their logos.
The interim government called it an act of war, and from a hill top of Arizona, Sheriff Arapao called upon Americans to abandon their diets and all drink milkshakes, to apply pressure by shaming the ineffectiveness of Michelle Obama’s healthy diet plan. The US laughed at that retaliation, but Sheriff Arapao claimed it would be highly effective for it would piss off the real power inside the White House…
Meanwhile the interim Tea Party government said it was in a financial crisis. It had no money to pay anyone, it was unable to maintain any governmental services.
May 19th — Early this morning Delaware County courthouse was stormed by what they said were local separatists but all had the same markings as did those in West Chester. The courthouse was quietly taken over, as well as the water plant and sewer.
In West Chester, members of the wealthy neighborhoods who tended to support the Tea Party’s call of no taxes, demonstrated in front of the occupied West Chester courthouse… They were soon outmatched, and overrun by counter demonstrations of relatively poorer African Americans who quickly took control of the street.
May 20th Demonstrators took over the city building in Montgomery PA today. Tea partiers with the help of the PA national guard surrounded the building and set fire to it, after boarding the doors to prevent escape. 48 pro US demonstrators died.
Sheriff Arapao blamed the deaths on the US, saying they were creating the demonstrations and thus forced these 48 to die. The US countered saying most Afro Americans are very concerned that the official potion of the Pennsylvania government is to have them enslaved, and has already banned them from public schools and public buildings, and in this case who were basically doing what was done by the Tea Party originally at the capitol building in Harrisburg.
Sheriff Arapao called the US a liar and called upon all Americans to punish the US by not eating broccoli this time… (Take that Michelle)….
Meanwhile the neighboring states of New York, Ohio, and New Jersey have been working on a deal with the Tea Partiers and the US government. It would involve PA’s borders remaining intact, but give autonomy over each region to that regions’ inhabitants, based on their choices in that election. It would give US control over Philadelphia.
The Tea Party says no deal on elections or future government will be made until the US is completely removed from their territory. The US replies that they will stay until the Tea Party can show they are responsible citizens, willing to let others have rights too.
May 21– The Tea Party with the help of their patriot Vietnam vets flying confiscated national guard helicopters, attacked the strongholds in eastern PA taking over all. 8 people died in the gun battles, several innocent bystanders hit by stray fire. The total dead is over 50. The separatists loyal to the US, quickly retake the buildings after the air power has left.
May 22 — Sheriff Arapao and the interim government call upon the US to move its troops back from the border. The US replies it has, but Sheriff Arapao says his patriots tell him it is not so….
=====
And that is where Ukraine as seen by Russia is today… It is ironic and sad that due to normal human nature, simply because we Americans been told that Putin is “bad” by people (Sarah Palin) who we don’t really know well, or don’t know if we can trust even at all (Fox News) , how quickly it taints us to jump to that very conclusion, with no supporting facts… Anyone who states an cautionary opinion otherwise, quickly gets pooh-poo’d by the tiny little minds here in the US..
But when roles are reversed, Putin’s own account seems very plausible. As we go forward, we must ask ourselves why the US today in our real world is now playing the role of Sheriff Arapao in the pretend one above… Is it because there are many moles of Sheriff Arapao replicated and buried within our real government, today? People who perhaps, don’t really care about being right or wrong, … but just want a war they’ve been planning in such detail all these years… to finally happen?
Did you ever notice how a fight starts on a elementary school playground? A stare down, and obviously neither wants to do it. but neither wants to hear the taunts of “chicken” either… It starts with one bystander… “Fight, fight, fight, fight,” and gets picked up by his accomplice, “fight, fight, fight, fight,”,,, and then his toady joins in… “fight, fight, fight, fight,” and then innocent bystanders flocking to the sudden outburst, who really have nothing to win or lose but just want some relief from their boredom, find themselves captured and joining in… “fight, fight, fight, fight,,,”…
Maybe they will fight; maybe they won’t… but usually when they don’t…. it is only because an adult stepped into the fight zone and took control…..
The real problem today, is those yelling “fight, fight, fight, fight” inside our nation’s beltway…. They will always be there too. Whether to push Kennedy into the Bay of Pigs, or the US and NATO into a war with Russia.
For them, it is all the same.
It appears that Obama’s plan is working. Even with T-90 tanks on the border the economic sanctions against Russia are taking effect.
If you only follow America’s three lettered media… here are some things they have kept from you:
- Hope of recruiting Beijing as an ally to blunt Western sanctions looks doomed
- China did not stand behind Russia in the UN Security Council vote on Crimea, as it had over Syria.
- Its foreign ministry stated that “China always sticks to the principle of non-interference in any country’s internal affairs and respects the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
- Turkmenistan’s gas used to flow North, hostage to prices set by Gazprom. It now flows East.
- in Kazakhstan, where Chinese companies have taken over much of the energy industry.
- It is surely unlikely that imperious Xi Jinping will throw away the great prize of G2 Sino-American condominium to rescue a squalid and incompetent regime in Moscow from its own folly.
- Enough of Europe’s gas pipelines have been switched to two-way flows since 2009 to help at least some of the vulnerable frontline states
- Officials have been ordered to draft plans within 90 days to break dependence on Gazprom… Imports of Russian may be slashed by half within a decade.
- Russia’s central bank cannot defend the rouble without tightening monetary policy, driving the economy deeper into recession in the process.
- Russian banks and companies must roll over $155bn of foreign debts over the next twelve months in a hostile market, at a premium already over 200 basis points.
- Any sanction against any oligarch linked to any Russian company could shut it out of global capital markets, potentially forcing default
- The price of oil is poised to fall — ceteris paribus — as Iraq’s output reaches a 35-year high, the US adds a million barrels b/d a day this year from shale, and Libya cranks up exports again. The International Energy Agency says global supply jumped by 600,000 b/d last month. Deutsche Bank predicts a glut. So does China’s Sinopec. Mr Putin needs prices near $110 to fund his budget. He may face $80 before long.
====
So in attacking Ukraine, Putin has lost China, lost middle Asia, lost Merkel, and unless it is immediately taken by force, lost all attempts to woe Ukraine back into the union.
He’ll attack shortly for domestic consumption. if he doesn’t he is done at home. The US should announce 20,000 troops are headed to Ukraine, and they should be stationed in reserves for military reasons; … to prevent them from being taken out in an opening sneak attack. If we could convince the Chinese to join us, we could quite possibly have decades more of peace in our times…..
That will depend on Obama.
Dear fellow members of the Human Race.
I speak to you now from the heart. People are people. Some have good souls and some do not. You know as well as do I that no nation is composed of all of one type or all of the other… Each of our nations have both good and bad people in them. With every choice of direction taken, we must analyze if either of our nations are making a correct or incorrect step…. In fact across every life, each person must daily battle over whether what they are doing, the course of action they are pursuing, is indeed the correct one they should be upon….
This is coming to you from the heart. Your nation’s course of action is puzzling to me, to my nation, and to your fellow members of the human race now scattered across the planet. Your nation has come so far since the 1992, You are a highly respected member of the international community. You recently awed us by your mastery in hosting the entire world at your Olympics in Sochi.
With all that behind you today it is puzzling that your nation is embarking on a course of action that negates all that. One that makes you appear to be less of a great power in this world. Instead of greatness one would expect from the pageantry of Sochi, the very nation that beget Tchaikovsky and Tolstoy, we are getting the behavior of a warlord existing in a land in which there is no law and there is no order.
Among our species, there will always be disputes. There will always be disagreements between nations for as long as there will be disagreements between individual people. But civilized people have forged a means that deal with such. We have institutions that we respect and that we trust will not side with either one or another solely because of personal favoritism, but decide what they do, because they honestly think their decision will make the world a better place. For one to take a course of action because one has a superiority of force, is not conducive to a better future for anyone.
For it will cause my side to react. It will cause your government to react to our reaction. It will cause us to react to that new threat imposed on us by your reaction to what we did…. in all regards, further continence on the current path will be a step backwards for the world community, and for the entire species of man… It will be a return to the Cold War Days, where as one of your diplomats stated, “our tanks are again on your front lawn.” I hope you can see that if your nation’s current threat of force is continued, and that if this old retired idea that taking sovereignty from other nations were again to become the norm of Russia’s international behavior, then our nation and allies will have no recourse but to implant ourselves on the soil of those nations bordering next to your great country, for only the sole purpose to keep each of them from becoming the next Crimea.
This will of course intensify an arms race for both our nations. A race of resources that will have great negative economic consequences for your country, as well as ours. We are prepared and capable of undergoing it again, and you the Russian people should not doubt, that based on a comparison of our two economies, all global experts predict our side will win, again.
I hereby ask you to challenge your ruler, who seems bent on pursuing this destructive action. And one can make no mistake that it parallels a course our nation chose a decade ago when we wrongly under the guise of protecting our national interests, did something similar. However there are vast differences between our past, and this present. We tried diplomacy first; we used the UN weapons’ inspectors; we took our case before our own people, then to the United Nations, and from both we got a consensus of support. Unlike us, your nation just moved in.
To your nation’s credit, there has not yet been violence. You have acted far more civilized than did ours. There is still time for your nation to chose to return to the previous status quo of two weeks ago, then make your case to the UN, the US, and the EU. As is all diplomacy among civilized human beings, nothing will be dismissed out of hand.
You are a great nation. one that has come far. I ask the Russian people to consider whether going backwards in time, returning again to a Cold War, is truly the best option available to your nation… Isn’t cooperation, as was seen in the Olympic games held on Russian soil, a far more productive, a far more fruitful enterprise of action, than exerting one’s will through military occupation?
The stakes are not high. Yet your leaders hold them much higher and stress them far more important than most others think they seem to be. We simply ask that your nation returns to your rightful bases; that the referendum is postponed and allowed to be done properly with adequate international observation solely to provide credibility to its results. Our intelligence tells us the outcome is not in question; the numbers seem to be in your favor. However by rushing the referendum and having it take place in occupied territory, certainly will cast a shadow over many decades to come, of whether or not those results were indeed legitimate. As Russian people you should have no fear of legitimacy.. You have spawned many new nations since 1992, because those people chose through elections to be independent from Russia. It would certainly be fair in the eyes of the international community, if a nation or part of one, wanted to come back in…
But there needs to be legitimacy. It needs to be done in a certain way, under certain guiding principles, with the approval of the global community… Being wrong in the international community’s eyes is a costly endeavor; one of wasted investment. Again, many in the world community likewise disapproved of my nation, the United States’ military intervention into the Mideast now over a decade ago. Many Russian people were among them… I ask you now, speaking from the heart, if it was wrong for us, and it was, why would it not be wrong for Russia to do exactly the same thing?
There are many commonalities between the Russian people and those of the United States of America. We both have children, and grandchildren. We both want what is best for them probably more than we care about ourselves… The collision course our two nations are headed towards now, is not good for either of our progeny, no matter where they call home….
We have no quarrel with where Crimea itself wishes to end up. My only concern is how that gets determined, and whether I have to expend expensive resources to make sure that no other nation with a border touching Russia, ever has to worry about the same thing happening to them… Western Europe is thriving and prosperous today, because of actions that the US took 70 years ago. Indeed our investment back then has paid off handsomely. We are prepared to do it again if we must. However our doing so, does not help your children or our children, have the better future which they could have, if our two nations were to always work within the structure and framework provided by, for and to the global community, in order to achieve our interests and build to better future…
I ask all Russian people to make their will known, that they as we suspect, would also prefer a peaceful world, a civilized world, a world whose future is based on the best intentions of mankind, to one day hand over to both our children…
There is still time for Russia to act magnanimously; if there is the Will. …By the grace of the God present in us all on either continent, we pray for the sake of the civilized future of both our nations, that deep within every Russian, that Will is still there….
It’s a job for Dad. The girls are upstairs fighting over who knows what but it is in the stand off stage and like little girls, no blows have been thrown. But the bigger, older sister has taken the stuffed animal and is holding it,… You walk into the room….
That is Obama’s predicament. How do you solve, diffuse, absolve a pie fight without far more serious ramifications stretching as far as the eye can see, from bubbling out from your best attempts?
Like a Dad, you have to realize they are just kids. They are looking at you to solve the problem…
Like a Dad, it is what any dad of girls has to do from time to time……
A) First take control… Ok, Give me the bear….
Obama with the world community behind him, needs to take temporary control of the divisive issue. In this case, it is Crimea, or more particularly, who controls Crimea. The US and international arbitrators need to take control over Crimea. It can be handled like this… We put a neutral nation’s troops between the Ukrainians and the Russians. Second step is we ask both sides to stand down. Russians to their side of the room, Ukrane’s to theirs.
B. Now we begin the talk… Ok, Russia, you go first, Ukraine, you’ll have your chance, Don’t interrupt.
Russia talks…
Now, Ukraine. Your turn, Russia? You got to say what you wanted without interruption, Now it’s Ukraines turn. If you have questions we will discuss them later… Go Ukraine.
C. Ok. we say.. Here is a list of what you disagree upon.
Recognize you agree on a lot, This is a small list. Looks like we can do something here….
D. Discussion.
Are we agreed now on rules to keep the bear?
Yes? OK, here it is…. follow the rule.
E. If I have to come here the next time, neither one of you are going to like it ….
==
There are certain ways things should be handled. Even then, they don’t always work out to plan. But if you execute the plan, knowing the plan works 95% of the time, and they still spiral beyond you, you did everything you could…
That is all that matters… If it spirals outward, we then will deal with it, consequences be what they may….
In any regards, the absolutely wrong approach is to barge into the room screaming and yelling, throwing out idle threats with pure abandon, pointing fingers before anyone has a chance to talk, or picking sides without finding facts and feelings out first. Yet a lot of parents act like this. It is sadly why we have so many kids who act that way as well. The United States should not be taking directions from our Conservatives and act like Ghetto mom. The United States needs to continue to act like the Super-Dad it is….
Photo courtesy of the EPA.
That would be my advice. Truth is, we quickly make Russia into a demon. They do the same to us. If there is anything we have learned over 100 years since the Great War started in August 1914, it is that going to war, should be the last resort…
Back in the early ’90’s upon being given the privilege to look over the Soviet’s intelligence when Communism fell, we were shocked that all their aggressive actions were seen in their eyes as defensive moves against possible aggression being planned by us….It is best represented by a young officers story from the cold war. I’ve long forgotten the source, if it comes up later I’ll tag it in…
But a young officer was in charge of a section of the German fence, and on his first shift, received a request for orders and told the reconnaissance brigade to go 5 more miles along the fence past where they usually turned around. They called back to say they’d stumbled on fresh movement of troops being maneuvered to that gap on front line we never had bothered to inspect.. After finding our troops were now outnumbered by their new response, this young officer ordered another brigade to move up from the south. That brigade also discovered another large number of troops moving in from the eastern reserves to that same point… The officer began to sweat. Was he witnessing on his watch, in his territory, the beginning of the long-feared invasion of Western Europe by the Soviets? He called up two more brigades and ordered them to dig in around that point. The Soviets brought up tanks, and lined them up for an invasion… The young officer then picked up the phone… Far away, the head of command looked over all the evidence… Finally he gave this advice… Pull your troops out, by ten miles…. he did, and the Soviets pulled theirs back as well. Ok, came the next order. Resume normalcy. And soon, everything again was routine….
For those that don’t understand war, the point of the story was, that the young officer caused the crises. The whole Russian buildup, was because of him. He made a move the Russians didn’t understand, and since they didn’t understand, they prepared for an attack. As we brought up more, so did they. They were simply matching our moves… Fortunately someone wise enough to understand that he Russians really didn’t want to go to war, stepped in and averted a possible WWIII start-up incident…
As if on cue, already dumb John McCain is rattling swords and demanding we nuke Moscow. Soon Lindsey Graham will follow as Tweedle Dumb always follows Tweedle Dee… Likewise, Putin will also have his exact same crowd (probably riding Harleys), his group of idiots, clamoring for war as well…
The Western press has already begin its war talk, leading with the condemnation of the Russian Government… But really, isn’t that a bit premature? No one has died. Far less than anything that happened in Kiev earlier this week….
Let’s wear Putin’s shoes for moment….
What if the predominantly Mexican population of San Diego wanted to be aligned with Mexico instead of the USA, all because we couldn’t get Republicans to pass immigration laws.. What if they gathered en masse in San Diego to protest, stayed, burned down government and private buildings. What if we tried to make them stand down, and it roused up even more Mexicans to their defense. What if the Mayor fled to Yuma, and camped out in a sanatorium. … …
What would the US do. OUR entire Pacific Fleet rests in San Diego… We would probably act prudently. and move outward to expand our perimeter. We would probably commander all airports and ship docks in that area in order to be able to land reinforcements if necessary. We would probably park a couple of gunboats facing the city as an intimidating force reminding the Mexicans we had forces they couldn’t get to, so their behavior should keep that in mind. We’d probably block access roads leading into the port, so an invasion army wouldn’t be able to charge in unannounced…
Just to play devils advocate, what might happen if we took no action to defend ourselves? As most Americans are asking the Russians to do? We saw the Mexicans had little respect in town for law and order. There are a lot more of them than there are of us… What if 10,000 of them just walked on to the base, armed with shotguns, hunting rifles, and a few semi automatics. What if they boarded all our ships, our subs, and put our sailors at gunpoint into the brig, and announced they were in charge of the Baja Mexican Navy… Now the 2nd largest navy in the world. What would the US do? Would we sail into our own harbor as did the Free French and blow what used to be our own ships up out of the water?
Of course the Mexicans would say we are invading their new country. Of course every Spanish tonged nation South of our border would be condemning us for invading Mexican California… despite the fact that a lot of gringos, maybe even a majority, live around San Diego and support our American troops being there and keeping the masses of Mexicans from turning on them….
Point is, we would ourselves, do what Russia just did...
So how can we condemn them, when we have contingency plans to do exactly the same thing?
There is further evidence this is not like Sudetenland, . One, no one has died. It was a smooth peaceful quiet takeover, textbook by American Standards. Two, action is isolated to the port and Crimea. Three, all evidence points to these actions solely for the purpose of controlling access to the base.
As Americans we would laugh at Europe, Russia, and China telling us to abandon San Diego. There are a lot of similarities between that and the Russian base. The number one move now appears to be: for the Kiev Ukraine government to insist that the base will forever stay Russian, and guarantee the safety of all Russians living on Crimea… Second, it should state that the current administration insists there will be no change for those who like having Russians close by. For that select group, there will be only two options. Life goes either goes on the same; or it gets better. The third option that it may get worse, is forever off the table.. .
It would be the equivalent of that American young officer calling off his men, and telling them to retreat backwards 10 miles.. it would be the opposite of what happened 100 years ago, where threats begot threats and soon rigid plans took effect and not one leader had the chutzpah to stop it from going forward. 6 million soldiers died, 15 million civilians died, and a whole generation of young men was wiped out. Girls had to marry men their father’s age.. and in the end Western Europe’s borders were right back where they were before the whole event started.
Cool heads must prevail. Of course the McCains will spout off. They don’t matter. What matters is that we treat the Russians with respect just as we would like them to do for us, if the shoe were on the other foot and we were fighting the battle of San Diego…..
kavips 