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I’ve commented on a lot of local blogs today. There is a common theme that needs pulled up for discussion.
Can we trust today’s polls?
Chart Courtesy of Michael Brogan, Political Forecaster(right click for full view)
I say no.
First, the numbers being given do not match the 80% support Obama has on the street.
Second, with today’s technology, it is rudely simplistic to assume that polls aren’t being tweaked. Even as simply as choosing who to call, That one factor can throw a poll off the deep end. And don’t think, you’re cookies don’t tell everyone how you vote…
Hmmm, who should we call to represent Delaware… kavips? … or Ms. Evans?… it is that easy.
Third. The average national poll consists of 700 people. That means 7 people can throw a percent; 4 people throw it, if you round up or down. And you tell me you can’t “randomly” find 4 more conservatives than progressives, or vice-versa?
Fourth. The polling organizations are companies that pay out dividends to someone. People buy stock; they want results. Obviously reporting that a race is over in August, does little to generate more polls. More polls equal more revenue. There is considerable pressure to keep a national race appearing closer, than it really is.
Fifth. Who checks the veracity of pollsters? No one. There is no watchdog exacting penalties over fake results. So how do we trust it is real? Exactly. We can’t…
That is enough. Polling is only believable if it fits in with the general scheme of things as we see it.. If 80% of the population is hopeful this recovery is real, and happy about YAY! JUST PAID UNDER $3.50 FOR A GALLON OF GAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, then any poll not showing Obama leading 80 to 20 is simply a fabrication of one’s imagination…..
And in local elections? Forget it. Ask your neighbor who their county commissioner is? Yep. Exactly.
If an EMP went off right now, what would happen? Let’s say it was caused naturally, and not from an earthly application… Just stop for a second and imagine if in one split second, all electronics got fried…
What could you do? You would initially do just what you do when the power goes out. You would get up, open the door, look at all your neighbors opening the door looking back at you, say a few words, and go back into wait for the power to come on…
You might get suspicious when your cell phone wouldn’t turn on, or not being primed to consider what the possibilities were, you might just think your battery picked that interlude to die…. You might likewise get suspicious when your car wouldn’t show life. You might curse your luck that the power went off, your cellphone battery died, and your car now needs a new battery, all in the same afternoon… You couldn’t get a hold of anyone to help, and so you walk over to your neighbor. He’s out back trying to get his generator started. It won’t work either. He’s mad as hell and is taking it back to Lowes where he bought it.. and he finds his Ford Pickup battery has died too… Oh the terrible luck …
So you walk to the store and see no one is open, everything is temporarily closed until the power kicks back on….
Only it won’t come on… ever.. I mean ever… Well at least in your life time…
Why? simply put, every electrical component, every magnet, every fuse, every connector, will have to be replaced from your house to the nearest power plant. .. Even if somewhere a power plant opened, and produced, that would leak all over the country unless someone actually got up and cut the wires to keep that power from dissipating and becoming too weak to do any good…
So new power plants would have to be built. New wires strung, new transformers built, forget about the ones on the shelf for emergencies, they’re shot too. Everything would need to be rebuilt from scratch…
And we would have no access to the information that told us how to rebuild….
This is how civilizations disappear rather quickly.. They become so specialized, that no one can put everything back together. It mimics the Tower of Babel accounting.. “There once was a great civilization, that evaporated instantly” is how most scholars view the accounting of that story today…
To survive, you would have no heat.. unless you had either a fireplace of wood stove. Everything else is electrical unless your unit dates back before 1990…. You would have no transportation. You couldn’t buy a working car. The first cars to be made would have to be created from scratch, at a factory, that unfortunately had no power.
Your world would shrink to where you could walk. There would be no news, unless someone walked to tell you what they saw in Wilmington. And what someone from Philadelphia had told them when they had walked from there, and rumors that had been told from those who had walked from New York, and from New Jersey, and up south from Washington and Baltimore…
Was any of America working? NO one knew… Once a military fighter roared overhead, and it was the first sound heard since the event, and all raced outside to cheer… But that was it.. Hope was that someone, somewhere out there, was in charge, and was working to make our lives return to normal…
But years went by…. Most people moved from the cities. Many died of disease, and starvation, and life became involved of defending oneself and ones property from those that wanted to take it… To live, you really had to sell yourself to an Overlord, who was intimidating enough that no one moved into your neighborhood because of him.. Most of what you made, he took as payment for protecting you. It included your children.
The once great civilization, was erased. No one knew about Rome. No one knew about Babylon. No one knew about Greece… unless it was from the old Bibles kept in decorative cabinets. Some books existed, but most had been burned to keep warm that first winter…
Just like that… Our huge skyscrapers, began to fall, one by one, each time covering the streets with an overbearing dust cloud.
Nature began to reclaim her own. The ice caps grew back. The seas lowered. The flora and fauna multiplied as people perished. The children heard stories, about the world being round, and names like China and Japan that could be found on old artifacts. But, without any reinforcement, they gradually faded from all knowledge…
The question I want to raise is this. Is our education system as it stands now, capable of continuing civilization as we know it, in and if, such a natural event were to occur? Or non natural event?
Do we currently teach enough basics so anyone can build a computer, build a electronics kit, and repair cars, generators, home electrical appliances, were such an event to occur?
It is not hard; the hard part is that no one knows how to do it.
If everyone knew simple basic electricity, and how things worked, we’d have power in some places within a week, and withing three months, we’d be 50% back to normal. We would be back to normal within three years.
Our current educational system is teaching us the wrong things…. We are focused on the wrong items. We test for the wrong items. We do not teach the basic knowledge our life needs right now…
It should be: A: fixing your phone/ and or computer.
B: fixing your generator.
C: fixing your vehicle.
This knowledge is vital for national security. It needs to be taught to every man, woman, and child… 3 x 6 equaling 18 doesn’t do much.. Nor does Black History Month, or proper English Grammer, or American History, or Economics, or ………….
Our first grade needs to begin…. “Ok, kids…. this is a 1… this is a 0…… All of life revolves around those two numbers…”
As we come off the summer and plunge into perhaps the most eventful Autumn of our lives, the fall election season begins getting underway at full steam. This time they are a full year too early.
Iowa and New Hampshire, as it stands now, are 5 and 6 months away. It is now do or die for political hacks supporting all candidates…….
Instead of fishing about for a candidate who I think could lead this nation forward, and then get caught up in their game of having them try to impress me………..a better approach would be to publish what I am looking for, and perhaps all of you can see how your candidates stack up against real standards: not other candidates……
This time I am looking for a person who has made mistakes. No big deal….I make mistakes. And when someone asks me how I know whatever it was (that I fooled them into thinking) I knew, I smile, dodge the question, and move on because I wish not to revisit my memory of falling flat on my face when I was so young. Mistakes, I think, build character. I fear those who are so timid of making a mistake that when they inevitably do, they cover it up. Me? I respect someone who says ‘Yeah, I messed up,” and then goes on to say….”and afterwards this is what I learned fromt it…..”
I am looking for someone who talks to me and is honest to the American people. I am skeptical of anyone who says he speaks for the American people, when his campaign treasure chest is stockpiled with corporate contributions. I would rather see one ad that tells me a great person is running, than twenty voice-overs on a flag waving background…….. Money is not important; character is.
I am looking for someone with wisdom. Having suffered the lack thereof in the White House for the last seven years, to finally have someone who will make decisions based on logic, and not on impulses from alien spaceships, would be a refreshing change.
I am looking for someone who will support the middle class, not with words or pap legislation, but with real changes that return the balance of power now held by global corporations, back to the people themselves.
I am looking for someone who has his eyes on the future, and his feet firmly planted in the past. Energy needs to become cheaper. Someone tough will have to do it. Our health care needs fixed. Someone tough will have to do it. Our insurance system is broken. Someone tough is needed to fix it.
Experience is part of my equation. As this country free falls through the next four years, I want someone who has had his hands on the nylon ropes before, and can steer the chute to nail its target. Not someone learning the ropes for the first time…..
I want someone who reaches out; not reaches in. Whenever he has to make a command decision and the choices are between awfully bad, and terribly bad, I want someone who will allow any idea that works to be considered, without worrying from which party it came.
I want someone with dignity, who can return that aura to the Oval Office again. Someone older, no longer plagued by youthful indiscretions. Someone who remembers how average Americans view their president and can live up to those expectations.
I want someone who will balance the budget.
I want someone who will return more of my income back to me, so I can spend it on things I want to buy, not have to pay through the nose just to survive.
I want someone who will employ thousands of Americans to build projects that are sorely needed. We have bled parts of our society for too long. It is time for a transfusion.
I want someone who remembers that America was once not a country, just a vague area across the ocean. The difference between then and now, is borne on the backs of those who build. Whether through work with their hands, through service to others, or through smart relationships, America did not just happen. It was built. I want someone who remembers that and rewards those who do the work…………
I want someone who is moral. But who is wise enough to divorce the government from trying to determine what is moral, from that which is not. We have other systems to decide those issues. Perhaps after we have fixed our economy, our quality of life, our imploding budget, our stature among the world, we can return again to the playfully fun, if not unproductive, arguments of what “morality” really is.
I want someone who will protect me. But will protect the Constitution even more.
Finally I want someone who understands the economy. Without it this country is sunk. But I want someone who remembers that the economy is also for the people, of the people, and by the people. To have a successful economy, all citizens must benefit from its growth, not one or two.
So tell me now….how does your candidate stack up?
Recently in Delaware, a well know auto parts company did a comparative study and decided that Delaware was ripe for expansion. The acquisition costs were low, taxes low, and competition was archaic and outdated. They received the required financing and moved in.
They built a new store every 120 days. Gradually they had received all but the most loyal of its competitor’s regulars. They began to set the standards of how business could be run. Were one to write a textbook on how to succeed in acquiring a new market, they would have been the most quoted source. Comparatively their service times per transaction were faster, their customer satisfaction results the highest, and their return to the bottom line was better than those same company’s stores in other states.
Every opportunity was met with success. Investors as well as customers were happy they had moved in.
Then, almost inexplicably, the upper management decided to buy a local strip club that was up for sale. They tackled the purchase with meticulous detail. They wined and dined, then cold shouldered the prospective seller, until he, desperate to unload the property, gave it up for a song. No one is certain as to why this company would go into a venture half-cocked. Some thought it was for reasons, deep, secret personal reasons, that guided the chief executives decision. But for a song, the place was acquired and a great party was thrown to celebrate the new diversion. It was even whispered by some, that all entertainment costs charged to the auto parts conglomerate, would be at cost, if even charged at all. Those few who fearlessly stood up to the executive and challenged him to explain his weird choice of action, were chastised publicly and told not to worry, it would pay for itself ten times over……
But no one knew how to run it……Apparently upper management was so concerned with the acquisition and the possibility of future profits, that in their rush, they had failed to plan for its management.
“Don’t worry. We will do it” they said. They chose a bright young parts manager and put him in charge. Since the facility was intact, they placed want ads for employees and prepared to open their doors. But being new to the porn arena, caused many of the local entertainers to become a little leery of signing up. “Let’s wait and see” was their approach.
Desperate, because of upper management pressure to get something done immediately, the young part’s manager asked some of the company’s most loyal employees to moonlight for him in their off hours………Opening day was a flop.
Jeers, hoots, holla’s were shouted at the dancers. The locals treated them with contempt. Who pays to see a middle aged pot bellied male clerk, dance around in a thong? Not only did the employees get shouted off of stage, but they failed to receive tips as well. Desperate, the young parts manger made deals from his car’s window with hookers off of Route 13. He asked them to come in and fill his roster. The hookers would do so only if he stipulated that they could ply their other trade within the club’s walls. He felt he had no choice but to agree.
Costs were running 200% more than anticipated. They had underestimate the clientèle. Southern businessmen, these locals were not. Heroin was sold openly.
They had bitten off more than they could chew. Those who had supported the diversionary financial venture, began to come under fire by stockholders. Over and over the CEO reassured them that all would work out.
Close it down to stop the financial bleeding he was told. No he insisted. That would be a failure. He would not do that. Instead we will staff it with all our employees. Every employee will work half a day at one of the stores, and the other half would be at night, inside the strip club.
As the staff levels increased, operations stabilized. However the client base hemorrhaged. Most nights were devoid of customers. Occasionally a group would arrive from out of town. The strip club soon sucked up more profits than the auto part’s stores could afford. For the first time, the company dipped into the red. It never recovered…………
Then came the vice squad. Arrests were made and prostitutes and management were incarcerated. Fines were levied against the holding company. There was no money left to pay them. Under court order, the doors were closed.
For whatever the reason, whether it was due to loyalty, or trust in his past brilliance, or personal fear, no one stood up to the CEO. All who came to advise him, left with head hung, hat in hand……No one pushed back…at least not hard enough…….and as the result,…..the entire enterprise was eventually auctioned off to pay the creditors no more than 18 cents per dollar invested……….
Moral of the story: Extravagant adventures sometimes end where you least want to go……Planning make perfect……
Relevance of the story: I’m sure you are smart enough to have figured it out by now.
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HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 144th GENERAL ASSEMBLY
HOUSE SUBSTITUTE NO. 1 FOR HOUSE BILL NO. 186 |
AN ACT TO AMEND TITLES 9, 22 AND 30 RELATING TO LAND USE AND THE APPLICABILITY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO UTILIZE THE STATE’S ATTORNEY GENERAL’S OFFICE TO ENFORCE ALL APPLICABLE CODES RELATING OF ENFORCEMENT OF LAND USE ISSUES |
BE IT ENACTED BY THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE:
WHEREAS: Most businesses related to the Capano family have, in the past, shown enough and considerable disrespect to the codes, rules, and regulations passed by this legislative body, and those regulatory commissions representing this state’s three counties, the Delaware General Assembly does hereby with the passage of this bill, forbid any business, corporation, partnerships, or any other open-ended arrangement that can be construed as being a Capano business enterprise, to be allowed to occur within the jurisdiction currently covered by this legislative body, as outlined within the current Charter of the State of Delaware.
WHEREAS: Due to the various damages caused to this state’s historical and natural resources by various divisions of the Capano organization, all rights to profit from or do any business within this state, will be rescinded as of 12:01 am on July 1st, 2007.
WHEREAS: Due to the lack of credibility this Capano organization has shown to all past government codes, rules and regulations, this Bill will give the Attorney General’s office of the State of Delaware, the immediate right to freeze all assets connected with any or all Capano enterprises, holdings, or interests within this state, should any violations of this law be deemed to have occurred.
That was fun. Although it has legal implications that go way beyond where most of us want our government to intrude, many within this state will argue that our state government already intrudes in many more places for much of a less cause.
But, according to the Delaware State Charter, for this theoretical event to go into effect, all that has to happen, is that a majority of both bodies of the General Assembly pass this make believe legislation and that the governor sign it. Then,…………. it will be done.
If you haven’t read Jud’s Rant or Nancy’s commentary, then you probably do not see the need. But considering the bi-partnership that my previous sentence implies, and the two decade spanning history that this family enterprise has had at saying “screw you” to all of our governing bodies, this course of action would be a grand exercise in having the people of Delaware utilize their given right to pressure both their representatives and senators, and insist that those office holders ignore those all those contributions that the Capanos have previously slid to them. and instead, vote to make this happen.
At the most, it would freeze their assets until the courts could amble around to make a final decision. Considering how long their hotel stood vacant overlooking Churchman’s Marsh, this state is poised to shake them down for a long, long time…………..
The Environment is at risk. Global warming has iced the cake but even on a small scale, species by species, mankind has erased incredible bits of genetic coding, compiled over millions of years. The damage done is just being realized these past few years.
The missing tree frogs, butterflies, and now honey bees have, like the canary in the coal mine, quietly keeled over dead. Satellite photos show large swaths of wilderness that existed ten years ago, now gone from areas so remote that most Americans could not identify by name. Great deserts devoid of life now exist in our seas from scooping everything alive from out of a hundred mile circle of ocean. Even native fishermen are forced to put up their nets, after the big boats have come by
Local species such as the horseshoe crab, have profound medical uses based on the genetics of their blue blood. Likewise we’ve been hearing of the rain forest’s destruction for decades now, and have said “how sad” but now, closer to home, we face our own desolation of species. Bulldozing a forest for houses, has consequences almost as severe as global warming to some of the indigenous species that happen to call those woods home. Changes need to be made.
Those of you with kids know first hand that teenagers and young adults are treated differently than one treats infants and toddlers. That is because teenagers being larger and now “driving”, they present a greater danger to society should they choose to misbehave or act irresponsibly. Well, the growth of man over these last few decades, has presented the same scenario, just on a different scale. We now have become more dangerous through our technology and numbers, and must, like a teenager, behave and act responsibly.
One would never expect a teenager to say, “I used to run around naked when I was two, why can’t I do it now?” but, one can and should expect developers to offer their twist on the same argument. When they do, society needs to shut them down, flat and simple.
Some of us still remember the fear that the world would end in a nuclear conflagration caused by some of man’s weaker tendencies. But through communication, we discovered that our adversaries, though threatening us as we were threatening them, really didn’t want to end the world either. We worked out a plan and are still here, proving it worked. The same needs to occur on a global scale unprecedented in human history.
The story of Noah’s ark is being relived in our generation. Like a car being driven down an open highway, we can choose to slowly apply the brakes, upon seeing flashing lights ahead, or we can choose to slam them at the last minute and hope our calculations of skidding distances are accurate. The warning signs are there, are we listening?
Solution: freeze development . Reuse renewable resources across the entire globe.
Need fish? We will raise them ourselves .on fish farms Need wood? We will replant logged areas and reuse the secondary growth. Need plastics, Recycle. Need more houses? We cut a few trees, allowing the wildlife to shift a few feet away, not the impossible distance of miles.
Probably no environmental impact has struck the global consciousness more than global warming. Our actions upon this planet, rival the extinctions of comets smashing into earth. Each year the temperature rises. Action needs to take place sooner rather than later. The waters are rising, almost imperceptibly at first, then slowly culminating in a rush of rising ocean. All of us are responsible. All of us need to realize, to paraphrase a Disney song, that we have the whole world in our hands. It is a small world after all.
Pulled this comment out from a response to Mike’s Merit Bound Alley, regarding the War on Drugs. I’ve noticed this topic, particularly Mandatory Drug Sentencing , has been getting attention lately. Below is the comment. My apologies to those who have seen it before.
I have been working on this problem for a while.
The solution came to me in a Wal*mart. To keep myself from falling asleep while shopping with my wife, i challenged myself to think through our drug policy and find a workable solution.
For some reason I decided to look around and create a thought model that said, what if everything here was a recreational drug, how would that work……….
Simply put. ( the real argument is much fuller) Q & A style.
Q: Drugs are addictive. Addicts MUST have it
A: So is food. We don’t kill for it.
Q: Would you kill for food if someone was preventing you from getting it?
A: Hell yes.
Q: Drugs are bad. They distort reality.
A: So does mixing alcohol and television. But we survive.
Q: What is the fastest way to stop smuggling.
A: Take away the profit from it.
Q: How can one do that?
A. Put the government in control of selling drugs below cost.
Q: How would that help?
A: Which would you prefer, driving down to Market and 25th and buying from some hooded undesirable, or standing forever at a Wal*mart checkout line?
Q. That’s crazy. You would sell crack, coke, heroin, weed in a store?
A. Not only that, we would sell it for CHEAP
Q Then everyone would be an addict.
A. Does everyone sniff glue? It’s cheap. Does everyone inhale hairspray? it’s cheap. Does everyone smoke banana peels? They are not expensive. Price or accessibility are not the reasons fewer people use drugs.
Q. What about those who become addicted…….
A. That will be part of the social cost, funded by taxes. They want treated, we treat them.
Q Drugs will weaken our society.
A And alcohol won’t.? Man has survived on alcohol since the original drink. Society still functions. Many today survive on illegal substances. Their lives, jobs, reputations are not in jeopardy.
Q if drugs are free, why would someone work………Just lay around and have someone bring you food, clean you up, sort of like Tennyson’s “Lotus Eaters.”
A. Currently the one’s who lay around and get high, are the ones without jobs or responsibilities. Those with responsibilities still use drugs, but impose their own restraints. “No, I got to work tomorrow.”
Q: What makes you so sure that society will not collapse if the government sponsors drugs real cheaply.
A. Suppose I overdo it and one day get fired. I’m a loser. But everyone else who sees me get fired, tells themselves they need to keep their habits under control. Society will survive because someone will always be there to replace a loser
Q. Drugs are bad for health.
A And tobacco isn’t. This is America.
Q You must use drugs to want to legalize them so much?
A. No, they scare me. My gut emotional response is to keep doing what we have been doing. Keep them out. This is a thought process designed at solving a problem using a series of models and predicting the outcomes.
Q So you are ignorant of the effect that drugs have on people since you abstain from them?
A. I am the last real person in “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” Everyone else uses drugs in society but me, and I have to accept it and fit in to survive. (Excuse me, I have to go check out that discordant shrieking noise outside……….)
Q How will this plan stop violence, smuggling, murders, police corruption currently associated with drugs?
A. Imagine you own a cartel and have 3 Billion dollars tied up in drugs. The next day and forever more you can’t sell it for a penny……How do you pay off the cops, how do you pay your thugs, how do you pay your runners, how do you pay your assassins? More likely they will turn and come after you.when they realize you cannot pay them.
Q: How much would this cost.
A Much less than we are spending now.on prevention.
Q What bothers you most about this idea.
A It is too conservative for it uses the market place to solve a social problem. And that scares the hell out of me…………………