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2014 establishes a new record… Never in the course of scientific measurement, has the globe been as hot as it was this past year…

Not in 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, or ever… Furthermore all the top ten hottest years have occurred over the past two decades… To give you any indication of that significance, there have been 602 decades since the world was created by alleged creationists. The last two include the 10 hottest years ever.  Some say it’s because we are moving closer to hell, and if Republican policies continue unabated, there is some truth to that.

But there is no mistaking the evidence.  Based on coincidence alone, the evidence is overwhelming.  Some may not agree. But that disagreement is solely based on fancy, and not fact… Such disagreement’s factual consistency falls in level near the bottom of credibility  alongside that of saying that allowing blacks to play sports will bring down the level of the game (yes, once said and believed); or that the Negro was sub-par to the white man, and slavery was a blessing for it, over the freedom of living naked in squalid jungle… or that all sickness was caused by bad blood, or the earth was flat, or the sun went around the earth, and not vice versa.  On the latter, people were burnt at the stake for telling the truth.

But those days are gone. Thanks to science.  Explanations for the unexplained based on fancy, only work until that unexplained gets explained in fashions we can understand.

And we know from scientific experiments that  increasing the amount of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere, as well as decreasing the forest process which breaks down CO2 into Carbon and Oxygen, will result in warmer temperatures… no matter what anyone else says.  And we do know that since 1990, the world has never, ever, ever put as much CO2 into the air, simply because there never has been as many people driving cars as now, and we know how much carbon is mined or pumped, how much is held in reserves and can use simple math to determine how much is being burned.

  • 90,354,000 barrels each single day,
  • 231,070,609,17  tons per day,

For eons this amount of carbon has been stored underground where it was protected from the atmosphere.  Never before in recorded history have we seen carbon reunited with our atmosphere on such a scale.  Without question, Global Warming is man-made and is caused by mankind’s burning of carbon.   Even the most skeptical must now accept it.

So what to do about those who continue to deny it?   First, recognize they are not serious.  They know and are just creating noise for personal reasons.  There is nobody on this planet who can look at the graphic above showing warming trends, and truly believe it doesn’t exist…  They may say so, but what they are saying is this:  I was so wrong that the only way I can have any self respect is to fool myself and others that I still believe as I did when I was wrong… If I ever admit I was wrong, I’ll be teased unmercifully.  So.. here goes again… That’s bull; there is no proof o global warming and there is tons of proof against it…
Such defiance of the obvious would be funny and cute if it were evidenced in say a dog experiencing winter for the first time, running and jumping off the dock and slamming onto an ice cover lake.  But when such denial affects our ability to counter the problem, we can’t let it continue…
If we lived in a village of 200 years ago, and wolves came into town every night to feed on young’uns, we would band together to do something.. Like build a stockade around town, or man a gate, or something to protect our children. What if we had townspeople getting up in the middle of the night, opening the gate, or cutting holes in the fence to let the wolves come in, so they can continue devouring our children… (Damn children scream in restaurants and give me indigestion).

What if we caught… one of those people…  200 years ago?   I’d kill them, and think I’d be seated near the right hand of God for doing so.  No question. No doubt. never any guilt.   Alas, today, killing people is frowned upon as it should be.

But what if we did something else?

“This is bullshit. There is no proof of Global warming.. It’s a liberal hoax.”  I put my fist through his fvcking head. Would the next person be so inclined to speak up so?  I think the entire gig would be up…

If one person does it, people may say… Oh, tsk,tsk. That is terrible, brutish behavior.  But if 99 people do it for every person holding up progress, the myth that man-made global warming is a hoax will rapidly die.  The sides of wrong have been employing such tactics for years…  “Oh, you’re gay?  We’re going to beat you up and leave your body on a barb wire fence”.  Or Selma. “Oh, think you can challenge whitey’s rule, huh?  Well how about you try challenging this?” WHACK, THUD.  The same people letting in the wolves, are the same people who think Timothy McVey is a hero for what he did.

These are sick people and the only way to make them see their ill ways is to punch them in the jaw.  No warning  (Ok, ladies, you can slap them then, doesn’t have to be  punch)…  Just something to punish their stupidity.  Would you let your child say something like that in public? Of course not. You’d back hand him so fast he wouldn’t know what hit him.. “Stop Lying.”  “Don’t tell lies.”

Remember just a decade ago where the boys gather on the outside of a Midwestern town to settle by a fistfight, who was better, Ford or Chevrolet?  If it is ok to do such in a Super Bowl Commercial for a stinkin’ truck, isn’t it even more acceptable to do so for the saving of the planet?

There is no more argument. The last decade of ten years of argument,has come to one conclusive conclusion.. What that conclusion is, is evident  to you in the video shown above.

Here is your piece of the puzzle. All you have to do is next time someone says man made global warming is not true, instantly hit them in the face. When they say, “what the hell did you do that for”, reply with… “stop lying”.

End of problem. Sometimes you have to treat little kids like little kids.

Even the most callous, ignorant, unconcerned citizen can’t ignore this. One can blame all Congress for it’s inaction. This Congress going on vacation now, has worked the least of any Congress in modern history up to this point. Just 142 public bills have become law in this current Congress (2013-2014) – down from the 906 the 80th “Do-Nothing” Congress passed in 1947-48, and the 333 that were enacted during the Newt Gingrich-led 104th Congress of 1995-96.

When a major crises hits our border, and is all over the air waves for two weeks, and every Republican goes before a TV camera and blames the President for causing the crises, and the President gives Congress his plan to solve it and it passes the Senate and the House REFUSES to vote on it, and instead offers their OWN contorted bill, which gets pulled because there are not enough votes in their OWN party to EVEN pass it…

It is obvious where the problem lies. Those people blaming Obama, who are so dysfunctional, they can’t even get THEIR OWN legislation passed in THEIR OWN controlled chamber….

It shows exactly where the dysfunction lies… No one buys a car that won’t run. No one keeps a refrigerator that won’t work. No one put up with a spouse who doesn’t help contribute to the running of the house… The dysfunction lies solely with this ONE party in this ONE house…

It played exactly the way the shut down the government last October. America, you have to stand up and do something about it… You can only blame yourselves…..

Rand Paul made some rather bizarre statements that at first do not seen true… This is an attempt to tackle them logically and see how in what context, they could possibly be true…

His subject was the extension of unemployment benefits.

I do support unemployment benefits for the 26 weeks that they’re paid for. If you extend it beyond that, you do a disservice to these workers,” he said… “When you allow people to be on unemployment insurance for 99 weeks, you’re causing them to become part of this perpetual unemployed group in our economy,” Paul argued.  “You get out of a recession by encouraging employment, not encouraging unemployment.”

First… Take his statement:  “I do support unemployment benefits for the first 26 weeks…”  He is talking about state money, not federal.  Federal money starts on the 27th week.  So at issue is who will pay for it.  From the point of the Treasury, since employers pay unemployment insurance into the state, and the state pays the unemployed, essentially employers are paying the unemployment, and not the government… Of course sometimes the cost may outweigh the income and shifts have to occur. However it is in no way nearly as costly as using all Federal money, all of which comes from taxes, to pay for those people who cannot find work….

So from the Federal Governments role, not extending benefits initially looks good on its balance sheet…

Now let us look at it through economics…  You have someone maybe or maybe not trying very hard to earn a job…. In any regards he doesn’t have one… So from the 26th week to the 27th week, this happens.  His income goes from $330 (Delaware’s maximum) down to zero….  He files for SNAP (food stamps), Medicare, TANF (cash assistence) and utility payments.  Most likely, with zero income he will be eligible.  There will probably be a two to three week delay before the payments go into effect, and they will be paid with all the back pay up to when the request was processed.

Now, to keep TANF, this person must undergo a forced regime.  They must show up at a service such as the Salvation Army or Career Team, and go through seminar training for roughly the equivalent of a work week.  They get times for interviews and resumes, and have coaches helping them find employment…They undergo internships.   This impedes their time looking for additional work… If one is required to spend the day in class, it makes going to an interview rather difficult…  It sort of makes it harder to get a job for the same money that just getting unemployment would allow….

So the idea that cutting unemployment is economical for society is bogus.  It completely forgets to factor in the cost of assistance that would be required.  Essentially from an economics standpoint, it would not fund the supplicant from one fund, but would be doing so from another….  The one fund would need to be funded by additional revenue.  The existing fund, would have to figure how to pay for the extra demand off of their limited resources…

In review, this idea does not work well on either the deficit’s or economic level.  It simply moves the cost to another department, and that is actually more costly by the time one factors TANF, Medicaid, SNAP, and subsidized utility payments.

The only way cutting unemployment could work, is A)  it forced someone to get a job, and B)  the person disappeared off the grid and cost no one anything….

I cannot but help think, that the premise for Rand Paul’s argument, is based on the assumption that people are free-loading on unemployment.  He is calling them out by implying  sure they are going through the motions of looking, but they are acting like they are on vacation….

For it can only if that premise is taken, then the removal of benefits miraculously causes everyone to walk up and get a job and live happily ever after… Further more, I sense morality making a play here… The idea that getting money while not producing is unhealthy for our country, seems to be the driving force here…

If you extend it beyond that, you do a disservice to these workers,” he said… “When you allow people to be on unemployment insurance for 99 weeks, you’re causing them to become part of this perpetual unemployed group in our economy,

The idea clearly stated, is that the perpetual unemployed group in our economy, exists because people are on unemployment.  Other factors are irrelevant… such as no new jobs,  such as old people suck; let’s hire new ones, such as the jobs we have are in Missouri; you’re in Delaware. All of these factors are simply dismissed.

If you want a job, Rand Paul’s stated assumption goes, you just have to go ask and they will give it to you, no questions asked.  Only because you are unemployment, have you not only not gotten a job, but neither have you sufficiently looked…..

Are the jobs really there?

Let’s look at numbers….  Four days ago it was released that 230,000 new jobs grew  in November. it surprised everyone. Unemployment dropped 3 tenths.  The total number of unemployed  dropped down to 10.9 million.  The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 4.1 million in November. These individuals accounted for 37.3 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 718,000 over the past 12 months.

So, 4.1 million of the 10.9 million are either at or over 27 weeks of being unemployed…  if Rand Paul gets his way and benefits suddenly stop, 4.1 million shuffle onto on assistance instead of getting unemployment….  Rand Paul was expecting them to get work…

Let is demonstrate how long that would take….

4.1 million unemployed  – 230,000 monthly new jobs  =  3.87 million unemployed left without benefits in January 2014

3.87 million                        -230,000 monthly new jobs  =   3.64 million….          February 2014

3.64 million                       -230,000 monthly new jobs  =   3.41 million…..           March 2014

3.41 million                       -230,000 monthly new jobs  =   3.18 million…..            April 2014

3.18 million                       -230,000 monthly new jobs =    2.93 million…..           May 2014

2.93 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =    2.70 million…..            June 2014

2.70 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =    2.47 million…..            July 2014

2.47 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =    2.21 million…..             August 2014

2.21 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =    1.91 million…..              Sept. 2014

1.91 million                       -230,000 monthly new jobs =    1. 68 million….             Oct. 2014

1.68 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =     1.45 million…               Nov. 2014

1.45 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =     1.22 million…              Dec. 2014

1.22 million                      -230,000 monthly new jobs =     920,000……                Jan. 2015

920,000                            -230,000 monthly new jobs =    690,000 …..                  Feb. 2015

690,000                            -230,000 monthly new jobs =    460,000                          March 2015

460,000                            -230,000 monthly new jobs =     230,000                          April 2015

230,000                            -230, 000 monthly new jobs =    full employment….     May 2015……

Of course this is only theoretical. If real,  it would take much longer because one would have to factor in all the new perspective job seekers entering the job market each month,  as well as factor the ratio of which the new get hired versus old, etc. and obviously it would take much longer than just this scenario implies…..

But the fastest we could ever hire all of those long termed unemployed is a year and a half….

A year and a half with no income.  Even if looking for work regularly, and someone took a slot before you, it could be a year and a half until another slot opens up where you could finally be employed….

Those who say, one can get a job delivering papers,  in the meantime, are forgetting that there already are 7.7 million part-time workers due to the economy,  already working those jobs, and looking for full time employment as well…

So it appears that simple math proves Mr. Rand Paul wrong.  Keeping unemployed workers on unemployment benefits is not providing a disservice to workers, it is doing the opposite;  but cutting them off and leaving them with no money while they try to find work  across a full year and a half is what would truly provide perhaps the greatest disservice to workers….

Rand Paul erred in his math.

Now this may be esoteric for most, but for me, this was the most intriguing aspect…  (So instead of ending with a bang-up finish, this post will fade away ethereally..).   Remember that unemployment benefits are taxable income… So if unemployment is extended past 27 weeks, the net cost over a year will be less because some of that comes back as taxes…   So if one takes that calculation into effect, and at a 10% rate which is low… $33 dollars of every $330 Federal Unemployment check comes back, meaning the economy is being boosted by $330 dollars, at only a cost to the Fed’s over time, of  $297….

The average benefit per person on SNAP is $133 dollars.  Medicaid costs and average of $166 among low income people.   Rand Paul’s plan would increase these two items to $299 per person,  to save in another category, $297 per person…..

It appears the only thing Rand Paul has going forward in his favor, is the cultivation of  anger against people terminated by the past Recession who cannot get rehired and must wait for the economy to grow…..”How dare they take our money!”  The math behind his assertion, agoes completely against him….

But to his defense, he did say something of merit:  “You get out of a recession by encouraging employment, not encouraging unemployment.”

Increasing the size of government would do far more to get people off of long term unemployment benefits, than cutting them off cold turkey. Adding 100,000 new Federal government career jobs each month, would do wonders all across the economy. Don’t think Rand will have any of that, which is why the economy will only putt along until Congress allows the Federal Government to again start hiring …..

What's The Filibuster Frequency, Kenneth?

A visual reminder for our friends on the other side, exactly why this privilege is being lifted. To the uninitiated, a filibuster is defined as “the stoppage of the accomplishment of something”. If you’ve wondered why Congress is doing nothing, this chart clearly explains why. This afternoon, listen to Rick Jensen cry great big crocodile tears (boo,hoo,hoo) from 1:00 to 3:00 this afternoon (11/21/13) on WDEL. Then if you’re listening Kenneth, stay tune to that frequency of 1150am….. for beer.

Filibuster for Appointees

Blah, blah, blah… clips of 50 individual House Republicans each blathering about how terrible Obamacare is…

Not one, mentions that as of January 1st:

  • You cannot lose your house or business anymore. (unless where you live is worth less than  $6000.)
  • There is a limit on how much they can take out of you.
  • No matter how cheap is your employer, you can afford to get screened for almost all killer diseases before they KILL you.
  • You can afford birth control.

Instead they all talk about how bad a website is…  Isn’t that dumb?

Yes, it the dumbest thing that has been talked ad nauseum in a year noted for dumb things talked about ad nauseum…..

(Compare that to the NSA or Common Core, (2 true Constitutional crises)  about which  you have heard very little since October 1st!)

But….. With the Affordable Care Act rolling out this year, there is a tremendous opportunity for radio broadcasters to develop and uncover new and evolving revenue streams from this legislation.

This is the reason you are hearing so much about Obamacare right now… Remember only 17% of America will ever bother with the exchanges… (3% will disappear; 80% already have employer sponsored coverage)

 Some 500 broadcasters recently sold out a Radio Advertising Bureau webinar on harvesting Affordable Care Act-related advertising.

AP estimates that $684 million will be spent on the initial activation period; and veteran broadcaster Dave Burke who spent the last year immersed in studying ObamaCare’s impact on various stakeholders reckons that 2014-2015 and beyond will be even bigger than 2013-2014: “I believe that this category, all-in, could be the biggest category on your stations.”

We’re already hearing (and seeing on TV) ads for “The ObamaCare Survival Guide,” and help-us-repeal-it fund raising spots hosted by Senator Ted Cruz. But Burke says that’s nothin’ compared to what’s down the road.  Expect Help Wanted ads for call centers and other process-related job recruitment…..

“Because people can change their coverage every year during Open Enrollment, “There are going to be years of sign-up spots.” This is not a “one-and-done” opportunity.”

So, don’t beat up too hard on those controlling your programing.  They do have a fiduciary responsibility to perform, and  like everyone, they too have people demanding more money out of them…   The more they create concern in you, the more they can charge those whose incomes depend on having the ability to reach the “most” of you….

Today's Tea Party

Image Courtesy of HannaBarbara Productions.

Delaware Liberal has running commentary here…… 

I could talk all I want. So could you. Let’s not waste that time but look at how the voters spoke instead….

The Right wing which calls those who speak to the other side “Republican in name only”, lost very big.

Americans blame them for the shut down. Rightly so because it was all caused by them. That hatred towards authority, manifested in a loss for Tea Party candidates across the nation.

A Democrat won Virginia, a republican state. Looking at Virginia’s House of Delagate races which almost all went Republican, shows Virginia was not anti Republican. but anti-extremist….

One might expect Republicans to loose all the way around. Not Christie. Though hated by extremists for hugging Obama after Hurricane Sandy, it apparently did well for him. As a Republican he has an overwhelming majority in a Democratic state….

Because he is not an extremist, voters rewarded him with another term.

Some may try false spin. but if anyone gets outside their bubble, they will quickly know that Americans don’t want extremists. They want people who like after a championship game, shake hands, and drop all animosity….

People who act like Ted Cruz are a joke. The tribe has spoken.

1) Someone lacked the capacity and ability to contain the thoughts we’ve all been thinking…..

2) or it was a hit…. with a very high dollar figure attached.

3) I hope it wasn’t Boehner.

No one holds more sway in this than Boehner.  He is the speaker of the House.  Eighteen percent of his House is his problem.

There is a solution.  It is a big step.  It could make Boehner a national figure, possibly even win the presidency in 2016..

I am probably more forgiving of Boehner than most.  He has done well considering what he has to work with.  Others may scoff that he did not control his people. In truth, he has navigated very rocky waters without sinking the boat.  Because in many cases,  he has aligned with Obama with masterful compromises on the issues, only to be sold out by the radicals under his command.  Each time, his compromises have put his leadership in jeopardy.

The public Boehner we disparage is not the man himself.  That man is a good man.  The public Boehner is one who has no choice but to act in this way because  though he is a good man, he is the leader of thugs.  Just like a union boss has to represent the union even if it’s unrealistic vision is detrimental to all involved, he still has to represent his union. For the reality exists that when the boss comes back with a negotiated deal, it can be talked down by one or two hard lined members…

If Boehner waffles, he gets tossed out, and someone worse gets put in.

As early as  Management 101, there are basic plans for how one handles an insurrection on the inside.  Essentially they dictate that one forms an alliance with another power, rendering the power of the usurpers pointless, and once destroyed, one severs ties with that that ally and goes one’s own way.

Here is how Boehner could apply that principal to the Gang of 80.

80 out of the entire body is 18%.  82% Representatives are arrayed against them.

Sometimes by actually doing what you are most afraid of,  one can gain the freedom to do what you wish.   Boehner needs to cut the Republicans loose.  A short statement:  “I hereby release all those of our party to vote their own consciousness in lines with their constituents back home.  We will no longer for this session, impinge upon our members to vote as a bloc.”

Later in a press interview, he can expound.  “We are a divided party.  Republicans in some states think totally opposite of those in other states.  It is wrong for some to vote against the wishes of their constituents, just because members of other states say so.  Either way. This is best for our party as a whole, so we stop fighting each other and both factions can win in their districts.  If any Republican wants to vote for any Democratic proposals, they can do so with impunity.  It is best for our country, it is best for our constituents, and in the long run, it will save our party….”

If he does this, Boehner, not Obama, will become the man who saved the country.  Those Tea Party Republicans will henceforth become as was the obsolete Federalist Party who lingered on for years in a few states after their national prominence dwindled past zero….  After all, they currently now at their peak, only have 18% of the votes in one half of one third of our government.

The political implications for 2016 are enormous.   By doing this and breaking the Republican Party’s official ties to the radicals, the Republican party gets judged from this moment forward.  They are different now.  The old characterizations no longer apply.  On the other hand, the Democrats will be judged across their entire stretch of the past 8 years.  This gives Republicans a huge edge.  Many of those former Republicans to whom the Tea Party scared over to the Democrats, may now return back to their fold….

It will be a guessing game whether a moderate Boehnor could win 2016.  It would depend on whether the far-sighted and  compromising Boehnor could pull more people away from independents and moderate Democrats (think Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado) making up for the loss of those rural populations (think Mississippi, West Virginia, Central Plains states) who would support a race-baiting Governor Wallace type as a third party candidate.

It is the best shot Republicans will ever have.

Whether Boehner has it in him is uncertain.  It takes great courage to stand up to one’s enemies.  It takes even greater courage to stand up to one’s friends….