Amazingly Close Battle On Climate Change…..

In one of the last places one would expect to hear about climate change and about large oil companies’ denial that is it caused by their carbon extraction,  at the stockholders’ meeting for Exxon-Mobile and for Chevron, repeated attempts were made to have their own companies face up to the problem they created, denied, and lobbied to have swept under the carpet….

More than 38% of Exxon’s investors rebelled against the company by voting for a proposal that would have required the company to publish an annual study of how its profits may be affected by public climate change policies, following the Paris climate agreement, to limit the global temperature rise to less than 2C (3.6F)….

(A similar vote at Chevron’s annual shareholder meeting, also held on Wednesday, showed 41% support from Chevron investors that cast ballots.)

This opens the door to a new avenue to attack “denial of global warming”, by buying stock in Exxon Mobile and Chevron, then attending the stockholder’s meetings… (Only 13% of additional stock is now required to change Exxon, and only 10% required to flip Chevron)… A far tinier margin than anyone had previously imagined…

Exxo tried to block the resolution from being heard at its meeting, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission regulator ruled that it must include the resolution among Wednesday’s votes.  Obviously this revolt could not have happened during a Republican’s executive administration.

“Given the significant resources Exxon spent fighting this proposal, such a strong vote is a real rebuke to company management,” said Andrew Logan, director of oil and gas for Ceres, a coalition of sustainable investment groups. “Investors have sent a clear message that meaningful 2 degree stress testing is the new normal, and companies like Exxon and Chevron can no longer act as if nothing has changed.”

Rex Tillerson, the boss of oil giant ExxonMobil, said cutting oil production was “not acceptable for humanity”…Tillerson said Exxon had invested $7bn in green technology, but the science and technology had not yet achieved the breakthroughs needed to compete with fossil fuels.

The resolution discussed at Exxon’s annual meeting in Dallas was proposed by the New York state comptroller, a trustee of the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third largest US pension fund, and the Church of England.

More than 30 of Exxon’s largest shareholders, including the pension funds of the governments of Norway, Canada and California, Legal & General Investment Management and Schroder’s, previously publicly stated they would vote in favor of the motion. Other supporters of the motion include the pension funds of local authority workers in Greater Manchester and Tyne & Wear.

Exxon is currently under investigation by New York’s attorney general over claims that it lied to the public and shareholders about the risks of climate change….

Exxon believes oil and gas will still provide about 60% of the world’s energy demands by 2040. In fighting off the proposals, Rex Tillerson, the boss of oil giant ExxonMobil, played his hand as to the real reason Exxon-Mobile and other oil producers are “pretending” Global warming is still a hoax. He stated their tapped and untapped underground oil reserves already firmly in their possession would be worthless, if the world shifts over to renewable energy.

They miscalculated the future; those investments are nothing but a bad business decision.

Koch Brothers Kill Off The American Bald Eagle

If current trends continue, estimates are the Bald Eagle will be extinct by 2020.

It appears that the American Bald Eagle is picking up some type of neurotic toxin in the Athabasca Tar Fields of Canada.  Athabasca Tar Oil is obtained by pumping toxic chemicals into the bedrock to flush out thick oil.  Those toxins can then contaminate wildlife when they leak.  Mercury content in water samples has increased  by 40% from 1979 to 2009.  These  oil fields and methods are  developed by the Koch Brothers, the same organization which funds the our local  Caesar Rodney Institute.  This is the same entity that is currently pushing for the Keystone Pipeline to cross the aquifers of the Midwest thereby enabling the Koch Brothers to sell oil to America’s future enemies, most notably called out by Allan Loudell on his blog  today, as China…..

The bird’s symptoms just showed up.  Utah is the wintering location of Bald Eagles.  Earlier this month, hunters and farmers across five counties in northern and central Utah began finding the normally skittish raptors lying, listless, on the ground. Many suffered from seizures, head tremors and paralysis in the legs, feet and wings…

The Ogden rehab center said all the sick eagles  seen suffered from encephalitis, or swelling of the brain, and many had heart damage.

Currently there are only 9,789 Bald Eagles breeding in the US.

Coupled with the mysterious die off of the Monarch Butterfly, the American Moose, and now the Bald Eagle, this makes 2013 a very cataclysmic year for traditional North American icons.

The  canary has stopped singing in the coal mine….

I Can See Clearly Now…….

As the cold front passed though this area, the fog of the afternoon and early evening moved off the charts and into the Atlantic….

So it was on November 13th, when in answer to Delmarva’s PACE letter, Bluewater Wind had their consultant’s version of the facts land upon the PSC’s docket………………..

The clarity it provided if compared to Delmarva’s Pace Global Energy Service Report, mirrored the change in weather at the time…….

We will begin with this chart. It shows us both of what Delmarva and Bluewater Wind have been talking about. Delmarva says wind power will cost more than market. As you see by the chart, they are not lying, at least for the first ten years. But then, neither is Bluewater Wind, for if we take the whole twenty five years as one unit, we see that over the entire range of the plan, Bluewater wind is cheaper than market……and to boot, we acquire cleaner air, with less CO2 created in the process. Any money spent by consumers over the market price during the first ten years, could be easily saved by one less doctors visit during that decade…..

Now that first chart was made with Delmarva’s rosy picture of future fuel sources as being lower than they are today. Most of us looking sideways at the gasoline market, find such a rosy scenario rather unrealistic. This chart accounts for the future shortages and impact or REC’s (Renewable Ehergy Credits) in what is probably a more realistic scenario. As we can see, rather quickly in three short years, Bluewater starts performing under market…. As you see in this scenario, going with Bluewater will save us at least 50 million a year….Yes I know it is chump change, but still 50 million saved is 50 million earned…….each year, don’t forget?

Now the high cost of the hybrid proposal which the PSC proposed, has to account for the high cost of natural gas, when the wind does not blow, and the market cost is higher than the cost of burning ones own gas. Here is how the plan is to work.

The hybrid concept is organized to supply 300MW to Delmarva Power. If the wind happens to blow over 20mph then all 300MW comes from off shore. But if wind can supply only 200MW, then the gas turbines fire up and supply the additional 100MW. Likewise if wind can supply 150MW, then the gas fired turbines supply 150 MW to make up the difference towards the 300MW mandated. Any time the wind factor drops the offshore supply below 100MW (since the gas turbines will be maxed out at 200 MW), the additional 100MW is to be bought off the grid……Just as Delmarva wants to be able to do 24/7.

Therefore the price of natural gas becomes part of the equation as to how much Delawareans will have to pay to receive wind power for their homes.

The price of natural gas is rather volatile. (Duh..go figure) One would not realize such reading the Pace report, since they use only one figure for gas, and borrow that from 2005. Obviously natural gas prices will rise and fall seasonally. So we take that into account.

Obviously between 7 and 8 pm, during December through February, the price peaks…. Interestingly enough, this is wind blows the strongest, driving most of the turbines offshore to full efficiency…..Therefore just as most of the gas is being used to heat homes, less will be needed for power at that moment and hopefully the price for natural gas stays down a little more than it would if 200MW were suddenly fired up at that very moment…..

So the question before the panel is which of the options, is the better alternative, Bluewater and NRG’s newly installed gas turbines, or Bluewater and Connectiv’s facilities to be built outside Bridgeville, Delaware?

Just exactly, where do things stand within the large picture. The PJM grid has grown during the Bush administrations tenure. It used to be Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia. Through acquisitions of neighboring grids, it has grown from what was the original area, now called the PJM classic, to covering an area stretching from parts of Illinois and Michigan to upper North Carolina. It has become the largest power market in the world.

So where does PJM get its energy? Before we go there let me again explain the difference between capacity and energy generation. When both Delmarva and Bluewater Wind are talking about MW, you will need to pay attention whether they are talking about capacity ( their maximum potential), or energy generation, (how much raw electricity is actually produced).

For instance, you could build a 600MW capacity wind farm, and if the wind did not blow, you would have a total 0MW energy generated. That is the difference between capacity and energy generated. It holds true for all forms of energy, not just wind. In fact, natural gas has a great capacity, but due to its high cost relative to all other forms of energy, it is used only as a last resort, when all other sources have been maxed out and more energy is still needed……Therefore even though natural gas capacity of the PJM market is 27.6 %, it was only used to fill 5.6% of the energy generated.

So here is how the math breaks down. If a onshore wind farm like those Delmarva wants to receive energy from in Pennsylvania, has a 40MW capacity, and operates on a yearly average of 20% or 1/5th of its capacity, you and I can correctly understand that we can count on 8MW out of that wind farm. The beauty of off shore wind, is that they run at a higher percent of their capacity, usually between 30 and 40 percent. Therefore the higher cost of building offshore, is countered by the fact that with sometimes twice as much electricity being generated as a cheaper onshore wind farm, the cost per kwh is cheaper coming from offshore……Delaware could provide power to the largest power grid in the world, cheaper than any other source…….

So as the chart shows, coal and nuclear which are the two cheapest forms of energy, are used at a higher percentage than their capacity. Coal which has 40.6 % of the overall markets ability to produce energy, is constantly on line and actually produces 2/3rds or 66.6% of all of PJM’s electricity. Likewise nuclear, which costs so much to start and to stop, and is so cheap to run, usually once started runs full out until something goes wrong, supplying its maximum amount of cheap energy to the grid.

Here is the same information in graph form……

Sadly as one can see, only 1.7% of the energy we use is carbon free. And relative to the size of the largest energy grid in the world, even if a 600MW wind farm were built, and it ran at 33.3% capacity, the total relative to the grid, would still not arise above 1.7% level of the energy consumed. So the CO2 argument is not where we need to look. Our focus needs to be on the cost savings that we will receive. And with wind, we WILL receive them.

For only if wind power is competitive with the other forms of creating power, will wind farms continue to be built, and only with the accumulation of large numbers of wind farms, will a significant amount of carbon remain unburned……

This detailed chart shows the least amount of power currently is generated by wind. A 600MW wind farm operating at a 33.3% capacity, will generate on average an output of 200MW, which more than doubles the amount of the current wind capacity within the grid. Great journeys begin with small steps. As we can see looking at these large numbers, holding back at 300MW is rather senseless. Shouldn’t the “kavips Compromise” be implemented, thereby allowing Bluewater to build the 600MW wind farm and sell the remaining power to the world’s largest power grid at market rates? Doing so would drop Bluewater’s operating costs per unit, lower than that total negotiated over the summer for the 300MW capacity wind farm. Again doing so would drop our cost lower than those featured in the charts at the top of this piece.

But if Bluewater is to sell power to the grid, how will it get it there?

The above map shows the dilemma. Obviously high powered tension wires will need to be developed into Southern Delaware if Bluewater Wind is to make money. The plans for such a system have been approved, and now must go through the process of acquiring permits and the right of way’s. With help they could be built and ready by 2014 when Bluewater brings their wind farm on line….. Currently there is a backlog within the transmission system across the Appalachians, that creates a bottleneck that stifles energy from flowing into the Philadelphia market, thereby driving up the price of electricity from which Delmarva must buy,

…….To keep our costs in line, permits for the new transmission lines across Delaware, need to be granted quickly without delay. Failure to do so COSTS US SO MUCH MONEY.

Likewise, what good would having a wind farm do, if no one could receive any cheap power from it. Therefore the lines need to be built for no other reason than to funnel the cheap excess energy created on good wind days directly into the DC market, with little loss in efficiency.

Soon some type of Carbon tax will be installed. Whether by the Feds, or by each state legislature…….in either case, the cost of carbon fuels will rise. To offset the high cost of carbon, many legislatures are mandating a certain percentage of those state electrical needs must be met by renewable energy sources. Credits can be bought and sold among utilities to insure that all are in compliance with the states law. These are know as REC’s, (Renewable Energy Credits).

This chart shows just how many REC’s will come due by the time Bluewater Wind opens in 2014…..There will be a very high demand, especially within the largest power grid in the world, for these mandated credits. Bluewater Wind with its high capacity and higher percentage of energy generated, if it is allowed to go forward with the 600MW plan under the kavips Comrpomise, then more credits within Delaware, mean cheaper energy for us all. If we do not have Bluewater off our shores, we will be buying REC’s from Bluewater off Ocean City, Md, or Ocean City, NJ..Future generations will think it pretty stupid if we did not capitalize on this opportunity first, and have them pay us……instead of vice versa…….

So if one combines all these factors, the market, future carbon fuel prices, the capacities, their operating efficiencies, the cost of power transmission, and the REC’s and runs them thorough a computer model, which determines average cost per hour for every hour over the twenty five years span of the contract, one gets this result, first on the high end.

And then on the low end……

Outside the Perimeter

Courtesy of Department of Defense

We’ll start with Duffy with a timely piece, if you happened to hear Tuesday’s economic news (BOA)……I should mention it is entitled: DV this is for you….For those of you who have not played already, you can also find your inner European.

Tragedy hit hard at the Curmudgeon.
Our prayers go out….Anything we can do……

With Shirley down, The Digital Federalist steps up carrying the banner for Ron Paul before it has a chance to touch the ground. Whether Republicans like it or not, Ron Paul IS THE BEST THING that has ever happened to the Republican party. Let us hope real voters realize it and thumb their noses at both the media pundits, and political headmasters….If I were to describe the phenomena, I would perhaps say that Ron Paul provides America with a practical solution for fixing America’s ills, without bringing with him, the stench from stepped-in cow-pies that precedes the other candidates……

Daily Delaware illustrates why Democrats are a class act…..Markel attacks a dopey News Journal letter writer, who may have previously been one of his supporters. He had no choice: the dopey guy attacked a fellow democrat, his opponent in the primary.

Nancy shows what eventually happens if we don’t make an effort to stop government from condemning land to pave the way for developers. Those people didn’t even get time to eat, much less make blighted chili.…,At least they won’t have to pay for a war on top of losing their livelihoods……

Kilroy warns us the “red tide” is coming. Ii is not what you think, not the red against blue some of you so desperately desire. It is the Red as in “Red Clay.” There seems to be positive movement in that district, coming perhaps from some new leadership? Not to mention Kilroy holding their feet to the fire…….Don’t forget to look at the pictures…..

Merit Bound Alley is drinking coffee from some really strange places…But those things happen…..

Those of you who have not yet checked out the Mike from “southern climes”, can you guess the topic of his post 88888? Wow, it’s been 145 days already. Guess it’s time for another game of golf….

Finally, a reason to break away from football between 3-4 this Sunday, November the 18th. Probably the first valid reason of the season. Tune to channel 28 to hear Matt from the Soapbox and Dana the Watchman, talk about blogs……with assorted others……

The Mike who does not support absolutes, in fact he is down with them, opens dialog on the inner city of Wilmington’s Mayors race, to be on channel 73

The Colosses of Rhody has some invisible friends. More newsworthy, is Marvel Comics taking its first baby step online…..

But the weekend was dominated by two threads……One was veterans day. The other was the ongoing battle for wind….

Delaware Liberal started off with a Donvitisque choice of photo. Comments stayed on, “thank you very much.” FSP countered with a more traditional salute to American’s veterans.

As words flew between the two, I traced 154 comments between the two blogs on this topic, a better perception of what it means to be veteran, was visible to all. However Feroce lost his cool…..showing to all that the Republicans have someone capable of speaking just like Daniello……Nancy provides some commentary, but the comments themselves were where the action was….

The other topic was wind. With all letters having to be into the group of four by Tuesday at 4:00, much was written about Delmarvas final push…Although they claim the report was written by the Pace group, Tommywonk breaks it apart and finds that this person was the real author………Much discussion on the airwaves this weekend, with many bloggers wearing many different hats…….

There were several open letters to the board of four….

We hope these letters and comments will be successful….We need them to be successful.

“Play That Funky Music…..”

Who compiled this report showing Delmarva to be cheaper than Bluewater Wind?

Here is how they describe themselves on their own website:

“Pace leads domestic and international projects that help clients protect and grow their earnings & market capitalization. We help our clients make critical decisions, manage for financial success, and exceed performance goals.”

Therefore this PACE company, located in Fairfax, Virginina, is a for-hire company that helps clients protect and grow their earnings.

Obviously their client in this case is Delmarva.

Delmarva is currently raking in tons of cash (can you say 60% increase)  off every Delawarean. Their obvious intention is to  fleece us as long as is possible.

This consultant corporation, flat out states that they work to “exceed financial” goals. So my question is this: if this company has the goal of screwing us over, getting more of our money while giving us less in return, doesn’t it make sense that we, as Delawarean citizens, should try to stop ourselves from being taken to the cleaners, and do exactly the opposite of what this for-profit group says?

I makes sense to me. Whereas the report recommends not going with Bluewater Wind, we must remain skeptical of this PACE groups motives.

If you trusted your neighbor, you would give them the key to your house while you went away. If you didn’t trust your neighbor, you would probably refrain. Now if your neighbor bragged to you about how much he stole from other people, you most certainly would not give him the key to your house.

So when a company that brags about how much profit their advice will create, does a report on the hidden costs of wind, our antennae should go up…..

What is good for Delmarva, is bad for us. What is good for us, is bad for Delmarva. So when seen through this lens, the report by the PACE group, is just one more piece of evidence as to why the PSC  should go forward with the Bluewater Wind proposal, and why the PSC needs to be present whenever Delmarva and Bluewater Wind sit down and negotiate.

Considering that we, the customers of Delmarva will ante up over $674,000,000 for Stockbridge and other’s bonuses, it is important as we move forward, that we pay less for electricity over the next twenty five years, than twenty states do now……

Delmarva Power has succeeded their financial goals for some time now…….Isn’t it about time that we, the hard pressed citizens of Delaware, get a chance to do the same?

Drop our electric bill to prices back before May 06. Say yes to Bluewater Wind…….