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fdr

It has only happened once in our history, when segments of our population refused to accept the majority will of their fellow citizens… We call it the Civil War.

We beat down the recalcitrants after destroying everything they had, and once they submitted, America continued forward to its destiny. Other nations have not been as fortunate. They either have long running rebellions or periodic flare ups, both which negatively impacted the economic potential of their nation…

If you truly want a revolution, you really should align yourself behind Hillary.. That is a revolution in the making, borrowing from Bernie Sanders economic policies, it promises more than anything Donald Trump says, to make America great again…

Of course, some of you are deplorables. We know this; you know this. Your idea of making America great again is killing off other people, especially blacks. You deplorables have great hatred for blacks for some reason… It’s always blacks who get beat up in you rallies, never a white non-educated male…

But Hillary is promising that you will be making $10,000 more a year by year 4 of her campaign. And if you give a full democratic Congress to her, it will happen even faster.

Hillary is promising good jobs at high wages; not false promises like your false god gave you.

Hillary is promising a guaranteed cheap health care, Medicare for all ages. That will surely help.

Hillary is promising you more money in your Social Security payments. That too, will surely help.

Plus in 2 years, every American who wants work, will be employed in a job they like. Unlike the false promise made by your orange demon, who put the failed  plan of George W. Bush on steroids, Hillary is pushing the plan of prosperity we had under Bill Clinton, when every income level rose year after year, not just those of the rich.

Hillary is promising to tackle Climate Change. Though that will put coal out of business, it will open the doors for Coal Country to lead the way in renewable energy. Whereas jobs in coal have dwindled since the 60’s and will never come back, renewable energy is just beginning… Can you say $200 a day?

But of course you know none of this…. It had no way to edge its way into your discourse, I mean, between building a wall, making Mexico pay for it, Benghazi, ISIL, insulting Cruz, Kasich, Jeb, Rubio, and then Hillary, how could there be any room for its message to slip through? And all the fighting.. all the fighting… You were witnesses to a WWE ringmaster, not a presidential candidate.. It played out just like a script in Vince McMahon spectacle,… The script was followed all along, though you were kept on the edge of your seat, it was never planned to work out that way………

What did he promise you? Seriously. What would you expect you’d get if you’d vote for him? A wall? At one fifth of a TRILLION dollars? Put it on credit? Deportation of 15 million illegals? At a low ball guess of $20,000 per person…. Another third of a TRILLION dollars?… Put it on credit? What else? Jobs? How? When he himself hires at the lowest possible rate and then, pays half, or a third, or none of what he promises, why would you think now would be any different? Low taxes were all he promised.  As a rich man, he’d gain, but low taxes take jobs away, not bring them back… Look at how jobs left America under Reagan, came back under Clinton, left again under Bush II, came back under Obama? You defy reality when you think low taxes create jobs.

But instead of fighting for your pride,  join the real revolution… Become part of the solution… If she is wrong and lets say you are now at $50,000, and you are not making $60,000 in 4 years… vote her out… But don’t think that grabbing your pitchfork is going to make your case… Because the rest of us, all 83%, want that extra $10,000 more a year… And you are in our way….

You really want a revolution? Join Hillary, and let us all make some serious money… Because YOU know, I know, that each of us making $10,000 more a year…. is how we are going to make “America Great Again”….

Join the REAL revolution… at the minimum, you’ll be $10,000 more a year richer than you are now…

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Ha! Haven’t looked at this since I wrote it; just stumbled over it from 7 years ago……

 

From the final pages of the “kavipsian Economic Plan”.

Some days nothing happens.  Many for that matter. Or it’s the drip drip drip of attrition of small events one tries to blow up as huge cataclysms… as in portraying it as the Earthquake of the year…

THEN, there are days everything changes.

Right now, we have the WEIC bills shuffled into a different committee in the Senate, creating speculation they may be shelved, never to see the light of day.  They passed the House. This is important for all of Wilmington.  I was telling some school kids what it was about, and their eyes got HUGE!  (They had no idea)…   But it is the first change in New Castle’s School Districts boundaries since the famous Court desegregation settlement.  It has great impact on property values in Christina District… Woo Hoo!  No more thugs! That becomes the place to raise your kids. Red Clay’s housing prices begin their grand longterm slide… Pike Creek is a great neighborhood, but we now got thugs from Wilmington in our schools.

Secondly, we have the Democratic sit-in for common sense gun legislation… Going on 24 hours, this is amazing stuff.  We’ve had sit ins before, and the same outrages being social media’d regarding Paul Ryan, also took place when it was Republicans protesting and Democrats controlled the House… The Democrats even turned off the lights; the Republicans have not gone so far yet…. But this is destroying the Republican Party… Seriously, it is a wonder if it will be around November 11th.  We have Democrats demanding a vote on gun laws that will save lives… They may not win the vote, (there are a lot of Republicans) but they are demanding a vote… Obviously the Republicans don’t want a vote which will cause them to get attacked by both sides… I mean,… who wants to be attacked by both sides?

But unfortunately, I wasn’t able to pay attention to either of these… Today (yesterday) was the Brexit Vote.  Most of you don’t know what that is or what any implications of that might be…  Let us say:  global economic collapse.  Remember it was the collapse of Lehmann Brothers, one single firm, that triggered the Depression (falsely called a Recession) of 2008.

If that was a rogue wave, this is a tidal wave… While you slept, Britain lost 120 billion pounds sterling of net worth. most of it in a minute.  Their banks are down on the stock markets by 25%… You may wake up to the resignation of their Prime Minister.  Housing rentals stocks are now down 40%… Overall at this writing, the FTSE  is down 5%.. The German exchange is down 5%.. American futures are down 5%…

No one knows how it will end.  It could be the end and wipe out all wealth which means we are in for a long bitter and hopeless recovery.  Or we may, pull a save and people will relax. The answer depends on where the fear line lies, and that is something no one can know…. That is the line over which if collapse passes, emotions take over decision making and a free for all occurs…

So before you go in to work today, pour yourself a glass and raise it to “Yesterday”:  a normal day that may be the last normal day you’ll remember for the rest of your life.

Cheers. 🙂

 

Maybe you’ve heard, maybe you haven’t…  But Democrats have allowed a SNAP cutback agreed with the Republicans at some point in the past, to go into effect….

John Carney is in agreement.  Here is how that cutback will affect John Carney’s district, a district at large for the entire state of Delaware….

In Delaware there are 332,350 households.  Of those, 36,382 receive snap benefits.  Leaving 295,968 which do not.

Of those 36,382 households, 26,763 are families.  Of these families, 31% have two more more workers in the past 12 months.  50.1% of these families have one person working over the past 12 months.  Only 17.7% fall in the category commonly associated with food stamps.  people who are not working.

The benefits will be cut $11 dollars per month per single person, maxing out at $36 dollars per month for families four and over….  Using the figures above,  per month the 9619 individuals will cost Delaware $105,809 in less food purchased, and the 26,763 families will spend $963,468 less food dollars.  These are rough estimates using the averages provided here.

But these cuts mean that grocery stores across the state starting in November will receive $1 million less in sales for every month.  Of course a year means that 12 million will not be entering the Delawarean economy per year.

How does that affect the grocery business?

There are 326 Grocery stores listed in Delaware.   Although stores closer to areas that are less affluent will suffer worse, the average monthly loss to this slice of our economy per store is $3280 dollars.   Each store over the course of a month will lose $3280 dollars.  In a classic business structure, one expects to pay one third for product, one third for labor, and one third to everything else.  If one profits, it is because one has beaten the odds in any of those three categories…   Meaning that labor will be impacted by one third or $1100 each month….

Each of the grocery stores on average will need to cut $1100 each month…  because of John Carney’s support of this piece of legislation.

One can expect the entry positions to be cut first.  Entry levels are minimum wage, but just for our calculations, let us go with $10 per hour.   100 hours can be expected to be cut….  or if not spread across the staff, their loss will cost the removal of 2 and a half workers from each of the 326 grocery stores in Delaware…..

Across the state that carries to 815 jobs….

So the cutting of  SNAP benefits to appease Republicans appears to now cost Delaware an additional loss of 815 jobs….  According to August 2013’s  figures,  there are 51,200 Delawareans working in Delaware’s retail trade.  815 of those jobs disappearing is a 1.5% drop in that industry…. It is a small percentage of our total state workforce… 2 hundreths of one percent.

As of August 2013, there were 30,658 Delawareans out of work…  Add 815 and that new total, 31,473 jumps Delaware’s unemployment rate from its reported 6.9% up to our 7.1%…..

Now this does not account for 6 months later, when the impact of losing the cumulative of losing 1.1 million every month starts hitting farms.  Nationally the drop is $5 billion.  Simply put.  $5 billion less in food will be purchased over the course of a year….

Product will be scaled back, and most likely so will the payments to farm workers.  This too starts impacting the economy negatively…..

The giant agribusiness, will be most affected.  With fewer people buying their products, they must too cut back.

So, once again, we have cutting back on a Federal program that directly subsidized farm production, impacting the single common denominator of every single citizen… Food.

Like the floor of a skyscraper, once the first floor collapses onto the next, that one too gives out and drops downward as well, taking the next floor with it….

Most people don’t know how subsidies work; they never would complain about SNAP if they really knew.

A very interesting article came out now that Hostess has closed its doors. It was a diary from the Daily Kos and describes a Hostess employees world from 2005 to 2012…..

It was as if a window had opened up and one was able to see outside again.

The story starts with the first paycheck. Stapled to it was a notice of how well that company had done, how prosperous it was, and who rosy it’s future appeared to be. The next paycheck also had a note attached; that said “oops, we made an accounting error.” But not before all the execs had sold their stock at the inflated price.

This worker went from making… $48,000 through labor concessions, down to making $34,000 now. His pension, the reason for which he stayed, was stolen through the bankruptcy process. It went through a convoluted process to wind up in executives’s bonuses.

The current contract, which is being hailed by today’s Republicans as a really fabulous offer, “that’s what’s wrong with unions these days” drops his pay to $25,000 in 5 years…….

Over this same time, the new head of Hostess pocketed $4 million into his own pocket…

All of that money divided up between all 18,500 workers would have only given each of them, an additional $216 dollars over the course of a year. For most of America not living on either coast, that would cover utility bills for two months. There are 2080 work hours in a year… $4 million translates to a 10 cent hourly wage increase for every hour of every employee over the course of a year,

We’re here to look at the big picture. So let’s step back.

We have an industry that paid $48,000; now in 5 years it would be paying $25,000. That is a loss of $23,000 of purchasing power.

Assuming the same wage scale applied to all of Hostess employees, then 18,500 times $23,000 is a net loss to our GDP of $414 million.

Essentially that means that what used to be flowing through our economy in 2005, would be five years from now, be $414 million less. Just this one company.

Now to get a the total cost, if we assume $14 dollars an hour in 2005 was average, and that similar companies are asking for similar concessions so this trend affects all workers, then if we put this number to the total employed in the USA, (155 million) the amount of spending power differential, … is…. $3.5 trillion…

What that means is that per year, we could have $3.5 trillion flowing through our economy that is not flowing through it now. This is $3.5 trillion divided up among cinemas, restaurants, fast food places, convenience stores, grocery stores, gas stations, clothing stores, Wal*Marts, K-Marts, JC Penny’s, car showrooms, realitors offices, bank CD’s, motorcycle shops and marinas….

That $3.5 trillion bumps it’s way from one establishment to another and on its way, it boosts the spending confidence of whosever hand it touches…

In case you didn’t follow the math, there is no new money being created here. The total pie amount does not change. It is coming from the $8 trillion of corporate profits now recorded per year.

Currently that $3.5 trillion that was once part of our flow through economy before the Bush Tax Cuts were implemented, is now in the hands of those few at the top.

That $3.5 trillion in excess, is today what is used to buy various companies like Hostess from their original owners, only to fire their employees in order to then make profits higher. This process works so well for them that they can soon buy another company and do the same to them.

As a result, people accept less, get fired, or whatever, and there is now a shortage of $3.5 Trillion flowing through our economy being spent buying things.

No wonder there is a Recession…..

Ok, so now to fix it.

Somehow, someway, someone, has to start paying America’s workers more. We know who has the money. Corporate America: $8 trillion a year. We need a vehicle to move that money stuck at the top, back down to the bottom where it can rise again.

A. Raise their taxes. Once given a choice between reinvesting in their business (a gain to them) or giving money to Uncle Sam, most will wisely reinvest into their business.

B. Give Unions more power, and let unions increase their ranks. It use to be that a business policed itself adequately to keep unions at bay. But now they no longer fear unions, and for good measure, Today’s unions should picket Papa Johns, Denny’s and Appleby’s. The union needs to re-educate America that it was the threat of unions which kept up everyones wages. Hmmmm, what’s the average wage difference between New York and Texas?

C Political Power. One of the two major political parties, needs to get solidly behind unions and workers. Roosevelt did in the Thirties. The choice should be obvious as to which political party that would be….

D. Strikes. When was the last strike that inconvenienced anyone? Usually strikes are held, well, use Twinkies as an example… Will life go on? Yes. But in our parent’s past, coal production ground to a standstill. Trains refused to run. Mail was never delivered. Kids had to stay home from school… Yes, these do interrupt society.

But they do far less damage than having a working economy being run on $3.5 trillion less.

Wouldn’t you be mad if your gasoline purveyor, lightened your octane in your gas from 87, down to 54? And your car was barely able to put-put its way home? My guess is you’d be outraged.

Well, America. Get outraged.

Republicans said they were fighting tax increases going to increased spending. The Democrats ran, and won, on taxing those making $250,000 or more….

So, the obvious answer, (which I think everyone would want to take back to their districts and brag upon before the next election), is to tax those making over $250,000 and earmark that extra money towards paying down the debt, not extra spending.

If taxes go up, and the costs of running our government comes down, every Congress person should win re-election in two years.

In reality, there’s remarkable consensus among mainstream economists, including those from the left and right, on most major macroeconomic issues.  92 percent of top-ranked economists say the ‘stimulus’ lowered unemployment.

Here are 6 areas that economists agree on….

  • The Recovery Act (‘Stimulus’) was a success, part of a historic turnaround.
  • The American Jobs Act should be passed at once.
  • The economy needs MORE federal spending, not LESS
  • Repairing and upgrading our infrastructure is job 1
  • Lower tax rates on top incomes make things worse, not better, as in:
  • The income gap, which fueled this crisis, is a big drag on growth.

Every Republican who disses the Stimulus Funding is simply dead wrong.   Every Republican who does not even have an idea of what they are talking about…   Job growth went from -800,000 per month under Bush to an average net gain of 160,000. That’s a turnaround of nearly 1 million jobs per month! A historic achievement that gives tangible meaning to change we can believe in. 92% of economists or 100% of those NOT on Romney’s payroll, concur.

Moody’s Analytics estimated the American Jobs Act would create 1.9 million jobs and add 2% to gross domestic product.
The Economic Policy Institute estimated it would create 2.6 million jobs and protect an addition 1.6 million existing jobs.
Macroeconomic Advisers predicted it would create 2.1 million jobs and boost GDP by 1.5 percent.
Goldman Sachs also predicted it would add 1.5% to GDP.

Policy advisers to Presidents Reagan, Bush and Clinton, Nobel prize winners, IMF and World Bank analysts, private forecasters, Goldman Sachs, Forbes…The Consensus is clear: our economy needs MORE Federal spending, not LESS.   The world’s top economists warn austerity policies are pushing the world economy toward disaster.

The American Society of Civil Engineers is calling for a 5 year, $2.2 trillion dollar program to repair, rebuild and update our infrastructure, beginning immediately. That’s $400 billion a year, every $1 billion dollars of which will create 23,000 jobs. That translates into 9.2 million jobs a year.  Romney wants to spend the same amount on our military.  Our military is already larger than the twenty next armies combined….

Tax cuts on top incomes likewise produce no return. A study by the Congressional Research Service reviewed tax, investment and growth data beginning in 1945, the first year for which they’re available.  Their analysis showed tax reductions on top incomes do not increase investment or growth.  In fact, growth has consistently been more robust during periods when top tax rates were higher.
Instead of making the economic pie larger, the CRS found, reductions on top tax rates change how the pie is sliced, concentrating income at the top.  (ie the kavipsian Economic Theory)  Romney’s approach leads us on the road to Greece.

The effect of income inequality on economic growth is negative.  But inequality, especially of the U.S. variety, is bad for growth. The country grew faster in the decades after World War II — when it was also growing together, with all groups seeing increases in income. But those at the bottom were growing the most.  those in the middle, ordinary Americans who work for a living, let alone those at the bottom, are getting a smaller slice of a pie that is smaller than if we had continued growing as we did postwar. The net result is disheartening: Most Americans are worse off today than they were 15 years ago.”   Income inequality in America peaked in 1929 and in 2007 – just before massive economic contractions.  It is about to again and will, if Romney’s 5 Trillion tax cut is allowed to progress unimpeded…..

 

President Obama’s policies are as needed in our time as President Roosevelt’s were in his.  Roosevelt struggled for a time, too.  America didn’t toss him out and send Hoover back to Washington.

Anyone who has read this blog over time, knows I’m all about the numbers. If it comes down to what people say, versus numbers, I’ll always take numbers and I’ll always be right. Of course sometimes you have to probe the numbers of the other side, to be sure the other side didn’t (erroneously) switch a minus sign, or divide when they should have added, but if anyone were to analyze past writings of mine, they could only concur, that numbers speak volumes…

In the Bush years I called out that the numbers weren’t matching up; we were headed for a gigantic meltdown and we did. I called for all (who listened and got out in time) to get back into the stock market at 6600 because it would reach bottom the next day and bounce upward, and it did. I called out that our economic well being was based upon removing the upper tax cuts, keeping the lower ones, and we instead, we got the Tea Party because some nuts out there still don’t read this blog.

So, as everyone knows, if given enough time, and pointed in the right direction, a person with one leg can hop towards and eventually reach the finish line. Basically the set back caused by the Tea Party Republicans, has caused us to have to complete the second half of the Obama years, on one leg….

Now, we are seeing Progress that will continue, unless the Tea Party is able to knock out our other leg….. The Romney/Ryan budget does exactly that on a macro scale. (One would expect that from someone who grew up in a little town and has never learned there are other ways to do things.)..

One of the most credible sources out there these days, is the Federal Reserve of St. Louis. Consisting almost entirely of Republicans, when they say things are going well, I will tend to believe them. And they are excited by the latest returns. I borrowed these from the Business Insider, but just seeing them in sequential order, is like art, a beautiful thing for a numbers person to behold…..

New Housing Starts Up

Retail Growth Escalating

Unemployment Rate is Collapsing

Confirmation on Unemployment Rate

Vroom Vroom Go Car Sales

Credt Sparks New Growth

Gallup confirms Consumer Confidence

Discretionary Stocks Higher and Higher

Homebuilder Stocks Up Up Up

Wal Mart Increases

Home Depot Jumps Off The Trampoline

Consurmer Confidence Rebounding

Food For Thought

Housing Prices Up

Yes, to change the lyrics off a CCR song, ” I see a GOOD moon a’rising….” The only thing that can derail this economy off its tracks, is any major Republican victory in November… Barring that, we are on our way…..
Obama and the Democrats did pull us out of the worst Recession (it would have continued as a Depression if Republicans had been in power) since the Great Depression…..

Trust the numbers: only with continued Democratic leadership, will the money keep coming back…..

Politico is reporting that the titians of industry are lining up to parade through Washington in support of higher taxes. They know that higher taxes create stability, and right now, the lack of stability is disrupting the economy.

A. The reason taxes are low, is because of Republicans (Tea Party).
B. Democrats tried to raise taxes in 2010, but Republicans stopped it in the Senate.

Politico even comments that… where as one would expect the titians of industry to support low taxes, they don’t. Low taxes cause growth to stalemate and die. Higher tax rates actually create stability. Politico reports that their “aim is simple: Get a big budget deal that provides stability for investors by eliminating the threats of government shutdowns, credit-rating downgrades, debt ceiling disasters and wide fluctuations in spending and tax policy”.

Everything this Republican House has caused. government shutdowns; credit rating downgrades, debt ceiling disasters, and wild fluctuating in spending and tax policy, everything Republicans have stood up for, IS VERY BAD FOR THE ECONOMY.

And so they are lining up to parade through Washington…. to? As Politico puts it… they are lining up to: offer Republicans cover from backlash from tea party supporters and anti-tax advocates if they sign on to anything that includes increased revenue.

Yep. Low taxes are bad for the economy. High taxes are good. The big whigs are going to provide “cover” (ie. campaign dollars) to squelch the wrongness of the Tea Party and nuts like Grover Norquist.

Why?

Because kavips was right. Higher taxes will explode economic growth and you had better have both hands free to scoop up the prosperity. It will be like a rushing mountain stream tumbling into a desert.

We all know it is true. It’s been true ever since we’ve been born….

Pondering over Steve’s return and the ramifications which came with it, (for example, I noticed the re-humanization of Dana Garrett), I was reminiscing why so many bloggers had fallen off the wagon…

Back in the glory days, there was a rather eclectic collection of men and women who put their thoughts down nightly or almost on a regular basis. A few are left today… But missing are Mike Matthews, Shirley Vandever, Tommywonk, Dave Burris, Dana Garrett, Duffy, Maria Evans, Joe M., Mat Marshall, …..

Most all of these posted their reasons for giving it up…. and they all sound the same. Tireless demands of time, no real feeling for posting anymore, realization that it was a lot of hoopla and little real substance.

And ironically the more successful you became the more time you felt you had to spend answering comments. And for the amount of time spent, the numbers of people actually reading them, were dwarfed by just the voting totals of Delaware alone.

But it is with Steve’s return that I think I finally was able to put my finger on just why the blog-world fell apart. It was because we had stopped becoming a community. It is rather interesting to read something someone posts that says: I think thus about this subject and here is why…. It is less interesting to have a blurb saying: “check this out” and then click a video and sit back waiting through the commercial….and then after watching, think: “that was a waste of time…”

Each person had a personality. Shirley tried portraying herself as a crusty curmudgeon but she was anything but…. Dave would bluster about, but then, without warning come through with brilliance. Mat, provided a odd twist from the enlightened eyes of a Cab Calloway student. Donviti was … well Donviti..and that’s a good thing. Hube could on the turn of a dime, surprise you by agreeing with what you said. Kilroy roasted Red Clay school district, no doubt causing them to cringe with his misspellings, and put New Castle’s school troubles on the map. Duffy always found the most eclectic random findings, and mainstreamed them for the rest of us. Nancy, with her sources, and emails, provided the bulletin board for all of us to snatch our next story from… Coupled with airplay on WVUD,WHYY, WMGD, Al Mascitti and Rick Jensen, actual influence over current events was projected… or at least it felt that way…

What we had was a community. And that peer group was who you wrote for. Sometimes you wrote evocative pieces just imagining Hube reading it and reddening his ears. Other times you could get Nancy’s gander up, just by praising Chris Coons. One out of this group, even considered running for Governor, and probably should have, considering the complete tanking of the campaign by that person who did run.

But mostly, we wrote for each other… If other’s wanted to read they were welcome. I think some who tried to fly too close to the sun, and write like they were the News Journal, got burnt out, and dropped by the wayside.

It is interesting to see the change in both Hube’s and Delaware Liberal’s format, comparing todays with yesteryears. Today, everything is bite sized. Before, we had the extended version.

The difference is like eating crackers off the table in back of the meeting room, or, breaking for dinner. Taking a break for dinner, is much more enjoyable.

All great moments pass. It is fact that we look back on them in admiration, that makes them great. So, I guess, though the characters are still alive, and a few still active, we cannot return to those times, long ago and far away.

I can only hope that a new generation, may someday read this, and happen to come across something like this, and find inspiration within themselves to do it again….

I think it is safe to say, we “pulled it off big time”. We really did something, which in it’s time was unheard of, and what we did, still has lasting ramifications rippling through our state government today…

I think most of the problems we dealt with, got fixed. Although no one can point to us and say we did it, that we influenced the changes, they certainly can’t deny. After all, each and every one of those problems haunted legislature for a quite a long, long time, and.. they are gone now. We exposed them for what they were…

With that said and done, … it’s pretty cool.