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Today in order to capitalize upon the fact that the fourth quarter economy sank (even though it was because of the downward pressure due to the threat of sequestration forced upon Congress by the Tea Party), they wheeled out Arthur Laughter Laffer to make a dire predictions….
He is on their short list of who-to-call-when-we(FOX News)-NEED-a-dire-prediction…..
Because….. He is well known for making “dire predictions”..
“Economist Arthur Laffer told his clients on July 26, 1982, that (Ronald Reagan’s) Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act, which raised taxes by about one percent of GDP, “will stifle economic recovery,” “retard economic growth,” and undercut “the economy’s ability to enter into a period of expansion.” On August 20, 1982, he told his clients that TEFRA, Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act, “will tend to lengthen and deepen the recession.”
Instead, ….. No one could have been more wrong…
On August 20, 1993, Laffer told his clients, “Clinton’s tax bill will do about as much damage to the U.S. economy as could feasibly be done in the current political environment.” He said that interest rates would rise and the stock market would fall.
Once again, it would be hard to find a forecast that was more completely wrong….
And now! Today,… well, there he goes again….
“You have the whole output of the economy shrinking. Not just expanding more slowly, it`s absolutely shrinking,” (lol, see by how little, below)… Laffer told Fox News’ Eric Bolling…
“That’s catastrophic,” the former adviser to President Ronald Reagan added. (Did anyone else catch the stupendous irony of that? Oh, Wow. You can’t make stuff like that up).
“You can explain some of that by sequestration, and defense spending was down lot and all that. But you still have a rotten economy. And it’s still too bad. We know how to fix it, by the way, a low rate flat tax, spending restraint, sound money, free trade.” (See George Bush’s Economic Record.) Laffer was responding to reports Wednesday that the U.S. economy contracted 0.1 percent in the last quarter of 2012…
Yes. Laffer was responding to reports Wednesday that the U.S. economy contracted 0.1 percent in the last quarter of 2012. Quote: “You have the whole output of the economy shrinking. Not just expanding more slowly, it`s absolutely shrinking,”
Recalling his years as one of Reagan’s top economic advisers, Laffer said Reagan actually cut the highest tax rates (From 70%-50%; they are 35% now) He said “we made a mistake” by phasing in the cuts, which he said caused the 1981-82 recession. But he said the economy took off in 1983* when the cuts (and 1%GDP tax increase) went into full effect. *
“This place just went like a rocket ship,” he said. “I think we had 7.5 percent growth in 1983 and 5.5 growth in 1984, just this boom that lasted for years and years.”* (*lol)
(Conversational excerpts provided by Newsmax)
As someone who has given and taken myriads of academic tests, there is a standard rule. Don’t concentrate on the topic; concentrate on the tester. Meaning that if you know how a test is graded, you can outsmart it.
Here are some examples… First , math.
There are many reasons why students equipped with all the necessary math knowledge don’t always score well on the SAT math section, but the main one is unfamiliarity with the exam. Just like any teacher, the Collegeboard employs several tricks to throw students off and reward those who have studied more and have paid closer attention to the details of the exam.
Questions that may not actually be that tough, but a scary graph or new technique will have several students saying “I’ll skip this one and come back to it later…”. If there is a very tricky or intimidating problem towards the beginning or middle, odds are that the question itself is pretty simple, but Collegeboard is attempting to frighten you away from the question.
Since often the underlying math concepts aren’t too challenging in and of themselves, Collegeboard often employs confusing / tricky language to get students to solve for the wrong variable, pick a related (but incorrect) answer choice, or miss out on a crucial piece of information…
The impulse is to start “doing math” as quickly as you can in this timed environment, but unfortunately the Collegeboard knows this and they will trick you if you don’t manage your time to thoroughly read the question and understand what is being asked.
On the Written, here are how you beat the robot scorers….
“Use “plethora”, and “myriad” and 5 other big words.. Don’t be concerned if you are using them incorrectly.
Add a quotation in the fifth paragraph. Don’t worry if it doesn’t fit.
Fill both pages, content doesn’t matter, length does.”
Why? The readers grading these essays have to grade 30-40 test per hour. They are given one and a half to two minutes to appraise and grade your two page 5 paragraph article.
MIT did a test. They wrote the best essay ever…. Highest score, .. .. Now read it. It makes no sense.
This, my friends and fellow countrymen, is what testing is doing to our educational system….
The profit return on testing is close to 85% … The costs are minimal, some paper, some ink, some graders, and you charge $100 per test.
And let’s not even get into the part where the tests are graded wrong, AND WHEN EXPOSED ARE NOT CORRECTED.
That is why it is being force fed. If you give a school a failing grade, they will buy more tests to test themselves out of their hole…..
Education is not about student achievement anymore.
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Reading a recent critique of the debates, it focused on a fact. Millions of Americans are not enjoying the benefits of this economy. Romney had the lucky position to point out all that was wrong, without the responsibility of finding any solution to fix it.
His line, “bring down the rates, broaden the base.” simply has not worked. It didn’t work in Reagan’s time. It didn’t work for Bush HW. It didn’t work for Bush W. It is called: “trickle down”.
Clinton, who practiced kavipsian Economics, raised the rates, causing profits to revert back into the economy stimulating even more growth; that growth grew people’s incomes. That is the key. People will take lower wages if they know they will grow out of them. But ever since Republican Tax Rates went into effect, wage growth immediately stopped. 99% of Americans are earning exactly what they did in 2000. It’s been twelve years since wages for the 99%, increased. Higher taxes takes away all incentive for any employer to pay his people more.
Here is the funny part. To actually do something about the economy, President Obama has to eradicate the Republicans. Get rid of them. Make them a non player. Republicans and republicans alone, are the reason the economy is in such a slump.
Let’s review.
Republicans fought the stimulus.
Republicans fought the car buying incentive.
Republicans fought infrastructure development.
Republicans fought giving Veterans jobs upon returning to USA after fighting for years.
Republicans fought lowering insurance rates.
Republicans fought lowering gas price legislation.
Republicans fought regulating big banks from literally stealing your money.
Republicans fought against balancing the budget.
Republicans fought against payroll increases for all Americans.
Republicans fought against lowering medical costs.
Republicans fought against a better economy.
Republicans fought against hiring more policemen.
Republicans fought against hiring more fireman.
Republicans fought against hiring more school teachers.
Republicans fought against building roads and bridges that were sorely needed.
Republicans fought against not defaulting on the US Dollar.
Republicans fought against strengthening America Abroad.
Republicans fought against stopping corporate corruption.
Republicans fought against fighting wealthy tax cheats.
Republicans fought against closing the loopholes Romney used to get rich.
Republicans fought against raising wages for all Americans.
Republicans fought against legislation that allowed workers to ask for more money without being fired.
yeah. There is a reason the economy is bad. It is called the Republican Party.
Having “No Republicans” equals massive investment back into our economy. The formula for a successful America is…..
NO REPUBLICANS EVER ELECTED AGAIN = MASSIVE AMERICA ECONOMIC GROWTH
So Obama, you are at fault according to Mitt Romney and the Conservative Cheer-leading squad… Because you didn’t get rid of Republicans… Shame on you!!!!
I guess it is up to us, to do so if we EVER want our economy back.
If not… I guess every vote for a Republican is a vote in support of Communist China…..
It’s clear as day.
When you have no engine in your car, you have to put one in… When banks aren’t lending, when the private sector is incapable of spending, the government has to..
It is called deficit spending. It’s been done before. Whereas we suffered a horrible Great Depression, Sweden emerged from theirs in 1934 by using just such a Keynesian approach towards deficit spending. While America suffered through dust bowls, “Grapes of Wrath”, Hoovervilles, soup kitchens, and one out of every four workers unemployed, Sweden was thriving and its citizens were living quite comfortably.
America finally… five years later, had no choice but to follow suit after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. We too spent money we didn’t have and guess what? From 1939 to 1941, U.S. manufacturing shot up a phenomenal 50 percent!
So what happens to those people who have no choice but to work, when the government gives them a job? They spend…. soon,… more people have to work… who spend… so even more people have to work,… who spend … so even more people than the more people spending money previously, have to work. … and they spend.
Republicans clamor we need more jobs… Mike Castle even hands out a giant check he voted against! LOL.. But they are all lined up against the very engine that brought us out of The Great Depression… How silly is that?
They say… we’ll owe sooooooooooooooo much money… Hello…Excuse me? Uhhh, have you ever bought a … house? Don’t you personally owe soooooooooooooooo much money? A $200,000 dollar house cost over $455,000 by the time the last payment is made. But…… how long would it take you, forced to spend more than you currently make just to live, to save $200,000 cash just to buy that house outright?
Right…. you couldn’t…
The same principal applies to economics. If you need to spend money for jobs right now…. and don’t have it… when and where will those jobs come from?
They won’t. Duh.
Therefore when Bonini says “Delaware spends more per person than any other state, excluding Alaska and Hawaii…” and that “the No. 1 employer in Delaware is the state itself, and the number of people employed by the state has doubled in the past 12 years” … right now we should be grateful… not troubled. Because we too are making some of that money those people are spending.
When he says…. “Tough economic times have prompted people to get involved in the political process,” it’s hilarious…. Especially when you look at this… on the Republican side… THEY ARE ALMOST ALL MILLIONAIRES…. (C’mon… It’s Delaware… Even if you’re Republican you gotta laugh)…
But, when he says … “The fact that people are making tough economic decisions in their personal family lives is bringing attention to the fact that the government is not,” it shows he doesn’t understand government’s role in the economy. It unfortunately shows us all that he doesn’t either read, or understand, American history.
And… that is what makes him a dangerous person to put in as our State Treasurer. He’s a great guy, and I certainly wish him well, but now is just not right time for someone who does not understand deficit spending to be running our state’s Treasury. Thirty years from now… based on my best estimates…that will be his time.
Duffy is God’s answer to a prayer.. I miss the old days of blogging when we were debating principals instead of people… Duffy has stuck to the old line of debating principals with facts, and that is what makes him special in the eyes of bloggers everywhere…
Since the passing of Steve Newton, he has been the only one to challenge me in any argument, and usually some pretty good stuff comes out of both sides during the exchange… I have respected that.. Cause once again, opinions mean dick. Facts are what we steer by.. It is my hope that in responding to his challenge that an answer may make itself apparent.. Who knows? It may not come from me… But if I’m the catalyst for bringing it out in the open, then… none of this was in vain..
Why I like to debate Duffy is simple.. Neither side, he or I, is concretely set in their opinions… We accept it when the other side makes sense… I usually go into such debates having no idea where they’ll end up… I hope the rest of you enjoy the ride as welI….
That said..
kavips rebutt’s:Uh… Mr. President. That’s not entirely accurate.
First off, the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 was developed for, and locked in on, urban developmental areas and had no part of the subprime boom, which primarily occurred out in western desert regions where owning 4 to 5 investment homes was normal… Those homes were overwhelmingly funded by loan originators NOT SUBJECT to the act… We all know the crises was not because people couldn’t afford a payment on their house. It came about, because with no occupants, people could not afford the payments of 4 to 5 houses….. Instead of one loan per borrower turning up in default; four to five were.
Second off, The housing bubble reached its point of maximum inflation in 2005.
Courtesy of NYT
Third off, During those exact same years, Fannie and Freddie were sidelined by Congressional pressure, and saw a sharp drop in their share of loans secured by the Feds… Follow the dotted line on the very bottom of the graph…
Courtesy of NYT
Fourth off; During those exact same years, private secures, like Delaware’s own AIG, grabbed the lions share of the market.
Courtesy of NYT
Remember these graphs for later on when I discuss the results of deregulation, versus regulation… But like it or not, these graphs conclusively show that private insurers, who thanks to Marie Evans, we now know were deregulated by Phil Gramm in the 2000 Omnibus Bill, were the primary cause of the worlds financial collapse.. Probably put best by these words of AIG’s spokesperson, who when asked why they didn’t have sufficient funds to cover losses, said point blank, “We were deregulated. We were no laws requiring us to keep any funds, ..so we spent it…”
kavips rebutt’s:Uh… Mr. President. That’s not entirely accurate. I agree that the hedge funds did survive better than the banks. Not because of bailouts, but because they sold short during the crises and made billions while firms closed and people got thrown out of work. There is nothing wrong with that; I did the same. In fact close readers may remember my warnings that the crises was impending almost a year earlier. Very close readers may remember my telling them exactly when to sell, and at what point the stock market would rebound… I must say: I called it rather well. 🙂
De regulated hedge funds are not the issue… De-regulated, excessively leveraged, mortgage securities, are a different story however… They, not the banks that held them, are the cause of the crises…Years from now, when academics search for causes of the stock market crash of 2008, they will focus on the pivotal role of mortgage-backed securities. These exotic financial instruments allowed a downturn in U.S. home prices to morph into a contagion that brought down Bear Stearns a year ago this month – and more recently have brought the global banking system to its knees.
Where you err is when you state that banks too big to fail, assumed they would be bailed out… By implication, you say imply they failed from squandering money, and wanted the bailouts.. But your tax dollars didn’t flow directly to the bottom line.
So in that sense, the bailout money represents an expense for banks. That’s one reason a number of banks have said they want to give the money back as soon as possible.
You say big banks were counting on a bailout, and they got them? That didn’t happen to these banks. New Mexico, Georgia, and Florida each lost a bank just last Friday. That brings to 8, the number of banks failed in June. Unfortunately if a bank is failing, it can’t bet on itself to fail, as can a hedge fund.
kavips rebutt’s:Uh… Mr. President. That’s not entirely accurate. The idea is that the banks made bad decisions knowing taxpayers would bail them out is the issue that is inaccurate. For the record, I have no qualms that it was the Clinton legacy who tore down the wall between banks and investment banking. Like you, I feel it was a good idea to do so… Again the problem was not primarily with banks making loans to people who could not pay.. Although, it was as late as October 2009, when I was made aware of one private Bank in Denver still exaggerating income to make loans look good enough on paper to get approval of securitization. What caused the collapse was the leveraging of those loans as securities, so that as the housing market became overextended, and the ARM jumped past the low cost opening years, the damage was 100 times worse because of leveraging. What made the collapse criminal, was that the insurance most financial institutions had bought from AIG, to cover such an improbable event, had already spent by that companies executives, out on bonuses to themselves. What made it doubly criminal, was that when they received government dollars through a taxpayer bailout, those same executives assumed it was to first go towards paying their bonuses again. However, very recent events may give some cover to the argument that some collusion was implicit in the bailing out of Goldman Sacs and AIG… Basically, once bailed out, AIG paid Goldman Sacs for shares twice as much as they were worth. The documents also indicate that regulators ignored recommendations from their own advisers to force the banks to accept losses on their A.I.G. deals and instead paid the banks in full for the contracts.
The health care legislation is about to go through… It will be the first time that Insurance Companies come under government control. That is worthy of celebration.
There are some real improvements over what we had… There are also some disappointments over what could have been… True, we will be paying more than we could have, because of the removal of the Public Option…. But, no longer will we be dropped because of a medical condition… “Oh you’re sick now? Good bye… Thanks for all your previous payments…”
There are some Democrats who will have to answer accusations of being sold out…. Maybe one of our own?
But, what is done is done… Just as the Cowboys whipped ass on Philadelphia last Sunday, we can’t change it.. All we can do is look forward to seeing the tables turned this week, when it counts…. or not…
But, what is done is done… Applying pressure on Tom Carper was good when it counted. Applying that same pressure now, is nothing more than a late hit, and should be called as such by the officials. After the whistle gets blown, it is universally considered wrong to tackle a player… No matter how mad you are at him….
We need to come together… So wrapped up are we in our own battles between Progressives and Blue Dogs, that we forget the real enemy who desires to destroy America is hiding in the trees and working their way around the fort..
That is the Republicans… They are the ones who destroyed America, and Democrats are the ones who fought them every step of the way. We can never forget what they did to every American’s life…. This vile vermin that infests our media today, is manifest in spreading its vision of disease and decay.
Wait a second… they’re not vile… Mike Castle is a nice guy!
He may be a nice guy… but he is still a Republican…. He voted 65% with Bush…
Bush? Bush who?
Bush is the person who fought a war in which Americans died for oil.
Bush is the person who bankrupted our nation by spending every dollar of the surplus and then ran our nation on deficit spending for 8 years…Let our children pay for it!
Bush is the person who pushed the Medicare Reform that first tripled the cost of pharmaceuticals and then reimbursed drug companies three times over what the drugs originally were worth.
Bush is the person who deregulated our finance industry, so it collapsed on his watch.
Bush is the person who sent your manufacturing jobs overseas.
Bush is the person who tried to remove your social security.
Bush is the person who tried to get rid of Medicare.
Bush is the person who came close to nuking Iran.
Bush is the person whose policy made the US hated around the world.
Bush is the person who destroyed the economy…
And Mike Castle was behind him every step of the way…
Sure Mike Castle is a nice man… but he is still a Republican… Which means he will not be voting for you…
As mentioned earlier, he voted 65% with Bush… Since the Republicans got thrown out, he has voted 85% with those few Republicans left… Yes, he’s one of those same guys who destroyed this country once… and insists on destroying it again… Republicans are the vilest of vermin and he votes with them…
Delaware: you have a choice. You can vote for a nice guy who made your quarters interesting. Or you can vote for a Democrat who by taking on the insurance, pharmaceutical, medical, petroleum, natural gas, coal, and power companies, can put another $160 bucks a month into your pocket…..
Only a Democrat can do that… Even one that has not been elected before.. Because of what Republicans have done to America, any Democrat is better than a republican ever could be, when it comes to Congress…
WE, the People, can never forget what those traitors did to our country…..
Never…. They are cowards when it comes to facing down the wealthy… They are soft when it comes to corporate crime… They are useless when it comes to making our lives better…
We can never forget that. Never. Not only is it our prerogative, but it is our duty, … to never shut up about what they did.
One of the nice perks one gets for doing things like this, is that you hear things…
So, instead of celebrating New Years as I normally do, I watched my computer screen.
As of midnight yesterday all of the holds, misdirections, scams, coverups, on search engines of blogs not favorable to former administration,….. expired.
It was amazing to see. At 11:59 I had one Google page, At 12:00 it was completely different. Previously unless you knew exactly what to search for, my posts were difficult to find. However, reading through today, I see quite a few of you have taken what I’ve said and run with it…
It made me proud of what I had accomplished over 2009 and in a subtle sort of way, made me want to get back into the blogging spirit…. which, I admit, I had placed on hold while pursuing other interests…
I wholeheartedly encourage each of you to Google your own pages, and see if you can denote the differences one minute can make… The evidence of this validity should be obvious to you at a brief glance…
As mentioned there was no public announcement. You had to see it…
I did, and the evidence is on each or your pages today….
That’s a fact… lol.
Many of us gave up on the luckluster campaign that Karen Hartly-Nagle ran against incumbent Mike Castle… Only until a recent debate did she appear ready to take on the challenge.
There will be a large crowd of freshmen Congess-persons entering the next Legislative session..
Let’s take a brief moment to see whether Delaware benefits more from years of experience, or with a fresh face that is in the same party as the head of the Executive Branch…
First, let’s face reality.. A Congressional Representative’s first priority, especially when they are the only one…. is to bring Federal Money back to this state… So with a Democratic President,and a state friendly Vice President, with a Democratic House and Senate, which of the two candidates will be in a better position to bring money to Delaware? Keep in mind… We will have a freshmen Senator in office as well?
Do we garner more flow back, get more approval for pet projects, such as the Delaware National Park, if we have someone supporting the current agenda…. or fighting it….? Obviously one would think, someone supporting it would have an easier time….
Second… America understands we will need to do a lot of things differently from what was done over the past 8 years… There is already grumbling that Carper has been in office too long… So who would benefit America more? Someone fresh in or someone burdened with a past? Especially with a past that agreed with Dick Cheney over 90% of the time… Had Mike Castle taken a stand against Dick Cheney, and said…”NO SIR! DEFICITS DO MATTER”… perhaps I would feel comfortable keeping him in… But he did not… In fact, as we see Wall Street, as well as the global economy implode, the person with oversight who was supposed to make sure the implosion never happened,… just happens to be our Congressman Mike Castle… All across America angry voters are punishing the Republican party because they do not have someone specific representing them who was to blame…. We, here in Delaware… Do.. Did your 401K plan take a dive? Blame Mike Castle… Was your state pension included in the 2 billion and some loss that was reported in today’s News Journal? Blame Mike Castle…
Across America hundreds of millions would love to be in your shoes…. and vote out the person who was minding the store the shift that their dreams were stolen…..
Third. America understands we will not be able to splurge as the Bush Administration and Republicans did while they controlled the Treasury… They understand that we will tighten our belts… So who will be able to tell the special interests “No”? Will Mike Castle be able to tell those banks that he cannot consider them keeping their interest rates sky high? Can Mike Castle tell businesses he helped to skirt tariff laws, that they will have to pay like regular people? Can Mike Castle who has cut student loans to pay for tax breaks for 40 billion profit oil companies…. tell those companies that they will have to pay like everyone else? I don’t think we can trust Mike Castle now that the tide has turned… What we can trust him to do, is continue to do what he has always done which is exactly what led us to this point in time…
So here we are…Do we send a tainted sinner back in to represent us one more time as ineffectively as he did the past several years?
Or is it time to make a fresh start… A new voice… building new relationships… bringing new monies to Delaware…
No one makes a fresh pot of coffee and dumps last nights dregs into it… We should not do the same with Congress.
It is time to make the change… Do yourself and Delaware a favor… vote Karen Hartly-Nagle for Congress.
It’s time to get rid of Bush forever.
One commenter recently mentioned that in their opinion, my credibility has flagged as this election has heated up…
That caused me to reread several posts to see what on earth they were talking about…
In doing so it became obvious that if you believed in those Republican values which have been in place for the last eight years…. you might have a point…
If on the other hand, you believe in your quarterly 401 K financial statement, in the pink slips or phone calls from your employer, or the financial news plastered across every paper and dominating every airwave, then by the opposite argument, my credibility should be enhanced…..
Are you going to swallow fake lies…. or go with real truth?
Perhaps you should take a hard look in the mirror of truth, and see how your credibility stacks up…
An interesting personal exercise…. to be sure…