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In 2011, 46.2 million people in the US were living in poverty and the nation’s official poverty rate was 15 percent, up from 14.3 percent in 2009, according to the US Census Bureau. That figure appears to be the highest number seen in the 52 years for which poverty estimates have been recorded…

The predominant face of the poor is white.

Economic insecurity among whites is said to be more common than is shown in the government’s poverty data, engulfing over 76 percent of white adults by the time they turn 60..

Economic  insecurity approaching 76%….. How does this end the middle class designation?

Let us review what is the middle class.  It is the class in the middle… Start and stop points and change depending on who want to show what, but for the most part, the middle class would have a center point around the 50% margin… Hence: middle class….

10%     20%     30%     40%     50%     60%     70%     80%     90%      

                            XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 

Sort of what you’d expect… the area above the poverty line and just below the rich……But based on current data now released from the Census Bureau, (and this is no secret to people in public schools) over 80% of America has been at or below poverty levels in its lifetime… It really doesn’t matter when.  You could be financially stable through your whole life and then get termed at age 60.  The effect is the same. You could face 50% age group unemployment right out of college and use odd jobs and part time jobs to stay alive. The effect is the same.  The mark today is that 80% face economic insecurity.  Can we just call that poor?  Isn’t that the definition of poor?  Someone who doesn’t have enough to be secure in today’s society?

Therefore if we take the middle of those from where the poor end at 80%, then we get a middle class graphic looking like this:

10%     20%     30%     40%     50%     60%     70%     80%     90%                                                                                                            XXX

This is the official version of today’s America rendered by the US Census bureau…. Times have changed…

Compare that to where it was under Bill Clinton in 1999 before Republicans took over….

10%     20%     30%     40%     50%     60%     70%     80%     90%     

                             XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX 

No offense to my Republican friends but this (which sad to say is exactly what I predicted in 2000), is what you get when you don’t tax progressively. We now have only 2 classes; The 1%  and the 99%.

The fix? Is to tax the top 1% who can well afford even a purely theoretical 100% taxation without hardship, and use that money for jobs…. Just jobs. More government contracts.  This is America’s quick answer… and it must be decided in this election 2014 that we will take it.  Against all odds, we need both chambers in Democrats’ hands., not for Democrats, but for America. It’s the only way is to defeat Republicanism… We are not talking individual candidates.  We are talking about a philosophy that stresses the lazy poor 80% must continue to suffer even more to pay for the one percent’s excesses, and not as it should be, … the other way around…

 

 

 

Last December I’d stumbled across this interactive map put up by the PEW foundation,  which had accumulated each state’s research of how many people were unemployed long termed back then, and how many were slipping off the roles this upcoming year… What I want to show, is the economic consequences of not continuing unemployment benefits, and to show it on a state by state basis.   The economic cost is nothing to ignore….As you may remember, Walmart is reeling from the food stamps (SNAP) cutbacks last November.  Their figures for this quarter come out early April.  But having some of their biggest clients drop out of society’s economics, jolted them last quarter..

The numbers for my state were estimated lower than reality.. PEW underestimated in December what Delaware actually reported in January by about 10%… Therefore these numbers should be considered baseline conservative estimates only, and very believable..  If they shock you, the reality is probably much worse….

As you know, all those already  on long termed unemployment  stopped receiving benefits on December 28th of last year.  Subsequently each week, every state has some members on its state’s unemployment roles who expire, and normally would get dumped into the federal program and continue being able to contribute to our economy while they look for work…That number gets bigger each week…

The idea occurred to me (and I did a piece on my own state),  that we could figure the economic damage relatively easily by finding the number of unemployed, calculating their economic worth by extending the average check amount, and applying a multiplier to account for the increase economic activity that unemployment creates. These multipliers are all over the map. The Dept of Labor predicts a 2.0 multiplier. and Moody’s predicts a 1.55 multiplier… Every dollar given through unemployment, creates $2.00 (1.55) in overall economic benefit as it continues to filter up the economic ladder to the top….

So I took it upon myself to show  how many people were initially cut, how many more increased the totals weekly, how much economic loss this costs each state,  and where the states will be at the end of this week, the beginning of March… The next step, since I won’t have the time, would be for someone to compare these estimates of people getting booted off an income, with each individual’ states data on weekly new hires. simply to prove whether or not unemployment was due to laziness and not the lack of good full-time paying jobs…  It would be easy to determine,.  If one would find that 10,000 are getting the boot, and if the state is showing no new hires, that we are creating a large class of people who will soon be creating large problems, stemming from simply the necessity of survival…. Call it our Third World Quotient. (I used this source for each states unemployment benefit)

===

Alabama   12.100 lost benefits on Dec. 28th.  925 added each week. Total off roles as of March 1st =20,425 @ $265 Alabama benefit = now hitting with impact of $5.4 million per week.  March 1st -Dec.28th Cumulative Lost Income Damage.= $43.9 million. Times 1.55 Multiplier effect, $68,045,000 dollars

Alaska    23,300 lost benefits on Dec. 28th.  448 added each week.  Total off roles as of March 1st =27,332 @ $442 Alaska benefit = now hitting with impact of $24.1 million per week.  March 1st -Dec.28th cumulative Lost Income Damage = $111.9 million  Times 1.55 Multiplier effect, $ 173,439,916 dollars

Arizona   17,100 lost benefits on Dec. 28th.  1288 added each week.  Total off roles as of March 1st = 28,962 @ $240 Arizona benefit = now hitting with impact of $6.9 million per week.  March 1st -Dec.28th cumulative Lost Income Damage = $55 million  Times 1.55 Multiplier effect. $ 85,173,120 dollars

Arkansas  9,300 lost benefits on Dec 28th.  775 added each week.  Total off roles as of March 1st = 16,275 @ $ 451 Arkansas benefit = now hitting with an impact of $ 7.3 million per week.. March 1st -Dec.28th cumulative Lost Income Damage = $57.6 million times 1.55 Multiplier effect $89,39,018 dollars.

California   214,800  lost benefits on Dec 28th.    16,078 added each week.  Total off roles as of March 1st = 359,502  @ $ 450   California benefit = now hitting with an impact of $161  million per week.. March 1st -Dec.28th cumulative Lost Income Damage =  $1.29 billion times 1.55 Multiplier effect $ 2,002,878,225 dollars.

Colorado   17,900 lost benefits on Dec 28th.  1400  added each week.  Total off roles as of March 1st =  30,500 @ $ 466  Colorado benefit = now hitting with an impact of $14.2   million per week.. March 1st -Dec.28th cumulative Lost Income Damage =  $37.7 million times 1.55 Multiplier effect $ 58,434,070  dollars.

Connecticut  26,000 lost benefits on Dec 28th.   1636  added each week.  Total off roles as of March 1st =   35816 @ $ 665 Connecticut benefit = now hitting with an impact of $23.8  million per week.. March 1st -Dec.28th cumulative Lost Income Damage = $221.8 million times 1.55 Multiplier effect $ 343,878,815  dollars.
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In 2012,…. 21.8% of all people under 18, lived in poverty, that is defined as a family of 4’s income under $23,050 (total yearly income)..That comes to under $443 per week. …

One in 5 children across America or 21.8%, live like that.   (More than a majority of Americans (58.5%) will spend at least one year below the poverty line at some point between ages 25 and 75.)..

The ratio is one in five.  In a class of 10, two students will be attending from a home under poverty.  In a class of 20, four students will come from families living in poverty.

Below is childhood poverty tracked across 53 years starting in 1959.

Image

Whatever we did from 1965 to 1979, we need to do again… See the low dip on the chart?  Our current high level of poverty is very near the record, with one major exception.  Unlike all other peaks we have plateaued at this bubble’s highest amount.  Notice how in 1993 and 1983, the same levels were reached under those two presidents, but quickly descended thereafter?  Since the election of the Tea Party Republicans to Congress, for the first time, poverty has stayed steady at the high water mark, for over 3 years in a row..

As soon as President’s Lyndon Baines Johnson’s War on Poverty took effect (50 years ago) child poverty declined until Reagan cut taxes in 1981… After he raised them back in a now famous agreement with Tip O’Neil, as the economy grew, childhood poverty fell.  Again after Clinton raised taxes in 1993, the poverty level dropped over the rest of his term, until George Bush and the Republicnas cut taxes again… Since those taxes were cut, the childhood poverty level has risen to the record levels it is near today….

Tax Cuts have repercussions that extend far beyond the wealthy getting more money back in taxes.  Higher tax rates boost the working economy; lower tax rates shred it…….

It is imperative that tax rates get raised as quickly as possible so this current plateau, the first 3 year one ever, the one created by the inaction of Congress because Republicans put the Tea party iin control of hte House…begins to drop down the other side.

Time is running out.  like global warming there will be a critical point we know is coming but where it comes we can’t predict.  The same urgency and fear need applied to childhood poverty and education’s role in helping end it…

As with every year there are lost opportunities and lost grievences…  Some things that have bothered us, disappear.  Somethings that have bothered us, don’t….

This year was no different, and yet, it was very different…. If one asks oneself what was the greatest factor involving the entire year, then pulls back layer after layer until he gets the full perspective,  I think he comes to a surprising conclusion….

This year, 2013 was the tipping point.  We realized we are a third world nation when it comes to the proportion of wealth across our population….   Like global warming, this disparity was first proposed long ago.  Like global warming it was argued by the power brokers that such a proposal was only a crackpot’s theory;  it gradually gained momentum….

2013, brought that home…. In 2013, we had the party of the Teas, vote against giving New Jersey relief for Hurricane Sandy, and vote themselves relief when a little hail landed in their district…. In 2013, we had government shut itself down to stop Obamacare, then open itself without creating any change at all.   In 2013, we had unemployment benefits cut, then reinstated, and now cut again… We had food stamps cut.  We had a sequester go into effect to save $85 billion dollars….

We had the news media lead fake scandals… when the biggest scandal should be, how is Fox and CNN and CBS still able to call themselves news organizations?  We had the IRS scandal… despite that they dealt evenhandedly with groups of both political persuasions.  We had the Benghazi hearings… Much ado over absolutely nothing… For when it came down to why those four died, all fingers point to that very Congressional committee led by Republican Darrell Issa, which cut well over $100 million in funds that were specifically designated to secure advanced unsecured places of that type.

But when we had a real scandal, which was illuminated by Snowden, all the media shied away.  Calling him a traitor for releasing the documents…  As more came out, Americans began to really fully grasp the totalitarian phase our nation’s government was just on the threshold of achieving….

In 2013 we had civil right voting laws thrown out by the Supreme Court, and instantly all those dark ugly human traits those laws previously regulated, took over and sprang out into the open…

We had a rational push for gun control, that bumped into the irrational group against it.  We did not win the first battle… WE did make considerable ground and showed the NRA was led by psychotic bloodthirsty killers, both nationally and locally….

And the unions… are all bought out… from the top down.   Only those on the very bottom in our service industries, the Wal*marts, McDonalds, and retail outlets, who have nothing to lose, are bravely carrying the fight forward… They are on the right track…

Our sole problem in America is that out of every dollar that trades hands in our economy…. 50 cents of it gets sucked out by the top 1%….  The rest of America is economically playing with a half deck…50 cents on the dollar.  No wonder job growth is slower than it should be?

If you invested, you love this year….  The year’s DJIA started at 13,000 and is now at 16,500….  25% yield….   For every $100,000 you had in stocks… you just made $25,000….

We now realize this was at the expense of the QE 3.  The Federal Government is lending the large brokerage houses all the money they wanted at zero interest, and instead of creating jobs, it went right into the stock market, chasing prices and making them higher….  When that free money begins costing the brokerage houses… those investments are going to deflate.

Most of America no longer has money in the market.  The market is primarily owned by those at the top.

And education?  We had corporate America exposed for trying their hand at teaching little children and failing miserably.   Just as Corporate enterprises have now destroyed Facebook,  television news, and are now destroying Twitter, the same forces demolished education.   An attack on the public school system aimed to demolish it and install a privately owned system, is well underway….   It was all just theoretical until 2013.

The prime problem  behind all of these?

It took a new Pope to make it mainstream… To tie all these individual threads into one rope.  As he spoke, people turned to look at each other and said, ” Wow, why didn’t we see it before?”

When one homeless person dies on the streets it  is not news.  But the DOW drops two points, it is THE news….

What 2013 did, was bring to light that we were not a nation beset by little battles…  Loss of labor unions, stymieing of minimum wage, fierce lobbying against Obamacare, a court controlled by corporate interests, lobbyists writing all our nation’s bills,  What 2013 did was bring to light that all our “think tank” research, was pure propaganda, not research.   What 2013 did, was show us just how much power and wealth lie in the hands of very few people…. roughly 100,000…… with most of that being held by a core of 1000 individuals…. Meaning 314,899,999 of the rest of us are out in the cold…

2013 showed us that the happiest people in the world, are those where wealth is more equally shared…  to be happy, one has to tax heavily…  A sharper sense of wealth is gleaned from looking at happy societies…  Where there is enough wealth to be shared, it is…  It makes little sense to pursue the opposite  tack.  To let those with money have it at no cost, and charge the masses heavily for their use of it…

2013, is the turning of the tide… Now when someone says low taxes are job creators they are viciously humiliated and never dare mention such again. Now when someone says trickle down economics work, we now know they are secretly praising how well it works for those at the top.

2013….  We know.

2014…. No Tea Party.  No Republicans.  No Third Way.   Only by mandating that the wealthy who got rich over nothing, pay their fair share and everyone else’s fair share too, can we again create an economy and a nation that thrives from the bottom up…

2014 is the battle year.  This is where those few at the top will throw billions into protecting the trillions they’ve made from our assets…  But… they only have 1% of the population… The question is whether they can mobilize their toadies to vote and suppress the rest as they have successfully done in the past… when in truth, we were still half asleep….

The rallying cry for the 99% needs to be this:  the 1% needs to do more for our nation!.  We should not be ashamed to mention marginal income (including capital gains) tax rates over 50%, 60%, 70%… at least for the short term, until our economic war is over!  That is not too much! Most livable nations have such.  and the USA itself had such during our grandparent’s time, back when it was easy to go out and find a job….  we had more demand for jobs than we had people….

Income equality is the lens with which all items need to be viewed….  What that means is that with every question, every line item, every debate, this question gets asked…. “What does this proposal do to reverse income equality?”  If it does nothing, it is not good…

What does controlling guns do for income equality?  What do charter schools do for income equality?  What does cutting taxes on Delaware’s 1% do for income equality?  What does making the Port of Wilmington non-union do for economic equality?  What does creating NO-prevailing wage zones in Delaware, do for economic equality?  What does opening Beaver Valley to development do for income equality?  What does raising minimum wage do for economic equality?  What does Common Core do for income equality?  What does opening Family Court to the public do for income equality?  What does building a power plant that runs 24/7 on the brown fields of Newark, do for income equality?  What does building a new Wawa in Newark, do for income equality?

I acknowledge some of those are stretches but that is what having a prime filter does.  One looks at everything through that perspective….  It is one thing to bash the governor for a luckluster economy in his state…. Republicans do that too often, and offer neither specifics, or alternatives.   It is another to bash the governor for ignoring 99% of Delawareans’ needs, or  990,000 people, to the benefit of 10,000, or 1%…..  That is legitimate….

Hurting the 1% to the benefit of the 99% will cause 99 times more economic activity in this state.  99% of our citizens will buy more….  If those 1% continue to make more money off our localized spending, then at least they are earning their income honestly for a change….

Perhaps what is missing, is a retort, the kind that becomes a mantra……. When the Chamber of Commerce steps up to a microphone and says, …. “we pay most of the taxes in this state, we should not pay more…”.

The proper response hitherto missing, should be…. ” Then pay your employees more money, so they can help you share that burden…”

2013:  the arrow was released… 2014 is when it impacts its target,….

(This came out last spring. Most of you have seen this.  If by chance you haven’t, be prepared to have your mind blown. If you’ve become jaded since the last showing, prepare to have your mind blown again.)

According to the 2012 Financial Report of the State of Delaware, there were in 2010,… 4887 people in the top 1% of Delaware’s income…  Over ten years, that number increased by 445 people.  The average AGI (Adjusted Gross Income) of just this 1% was $728,553.  if this was the average then the average times the number of people will give us the total AGI for that income bracket…

$728,553  X  4887  =  $3,560,438,511 or $3.5 billion dollars of taxable income…..

Here is a chart showing the amounts if we tax this segment additionally…. Currently top-bracketed income due for 2014 is to be taxed at a rate of 6.9%…..

2014  @ 6.9% =  $245,670,257 …

Now with additional increases in the percentage…….

.5%  = $17,802,192   new rate of 7.4%

1%  =  $35,604,385   new rate of 7.9%

1.5%=  $53,406,578  new rate of 8.4%

2%  –   $71,208,770   new rater of 8.9%

These are the amounts of revenue at our disposal, based off the 2010 data.

These rates compare to New Jersey’s at 8.97%,

Keep in mind these increases are just on the top 1%. No tax increases in this post were considered for those in the 99% category.

And please don’t feel sorry for these people having to pay more.  The  Dow Jones average is up 23.79% on the year…

Someone with $3 billion in assets acquired an income just off stocks alone, $714 million by doing nothing… It grew that much….

They certainly have a little extra cash, this year to help the state out a little…

Compare that amount to all those things now broken in the state of Delaware which get band-aids because we aren’t leaning on those sitting on this much money as we should be.

Before any knucklehead even thinks of doing away with prevailing wage, something that helps the Delaware economy, …. taxing this money pile so more stays here inside our state’s boundary must take place first.

Absolutely.

Now, to answer why….

“‘Five years after excessive debt propelled a housing-market collapse into a financial crisis and recession, similar bets are being placed across the U.S”.

“Total corporate-bond debt has grown to nearly $6 trillion, up 59% since 2007, the year before the financial crisis. … Leverage by companies rated investment grade has risen 20% since 2010 … about 6% higher than in 2008…

In 2008, mutual funds held, on average, 17% of the bonds and 3% of the loans made to junk-grade companies, according to Bank of America. Today, they own about 26% of the bonds and 19% of the loans.

“Assets in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that invest in junk bonds have grown to $285 billion in July from $92 billion at the end of 2008,”

“‘Many companies are repeating some of the mistakes of the past,’ by taking on too much debt,…”

“Overall corporate health was ‘no better than it was in 2007 and by some measures worse.”

(All quotes culled from Wall Street Journal)

For those that don’t do this all the time, here is how it works….

You buy $100 million dollars of stock X on margin…  You pay 50% of the cost or  $50 million, owing the remainder $50 million to your broker.  The stock value rises to $150 million and you sell it….   You get the $150 million minus the $50 million owed back to your broker… You pocket an extra $50 million on the $50 million you invested…   Your $50 million returned a 100% on your investment, congratulations….

If done in cash, you should have paid $100 million, and gained $50 million when sold at $150 million…  Wait … is that the same exact total?…  Yes, you are right, but your investment only gained 50%… not 100%

This is why borrowing for stocks is up…  Worse than it was in 2007-2008?…. Yes. Correct.  Despite the Dodd-Frank bill, it is worse now, than in 2007-2008…..

So then what happens if the price of stocks fall…..   ???

You bought $100 million of stocks putting $50 million down and borrowing $50 million from your broker… Rule number one:  you broker does not lose:  you do….

Stocks fall 2%….   Your value is dropped to $98 million.  You now owe the broker $2 million on top of the $50 you put down. Stocks fall again, 2%….  You value drops to $96 million.  You know owe your broker an additional $2 million you put down…  Getting scared?  Sell at $96 million and by the time it goes through, you only get $95 million.  Since you owed your broker $50 million and only get $45 million, you immediately cut him a check for $5 million dollars…. You originally put up $50 million so your investment cost you…. 10%….

If you paid cash and put  the full $100 million up front, your loss to your company would have only been 5%….

So let us imagine this on the volume of the New York Stock Exchange…  Where  last Friday on the NYSE, $30 billion traded hands (positively for most, fortunately)    … Assuming it was a bad day, and everyone was leveraged, on the minimal 5% drop outlined above, America would have to pay an minimal $1.5 billion to their brokers…  In other words… Americans who leveraged, would be $1.5 billion poorer just from the NYSE one day drop alone….

At the 16,000 mark, a 5% drop means the DJIA would rest at 15,200….  or where it was back in the middle of this past October…. just 23 trading days ago…..  Because of leveraging,  that 5% drop means corporate America takes a 10% clip….

I don’t know if you’ve ever taken a loss of 10%, but if you haven’t… let me tell you… one does cut back on spending….

And that, is what makes this chart so scary……….

QE versus Stock Prices

(Click image to enlarge)

Makes one understand now exactly why the market-rise continues despite the reality of our current economic situation, doesn’t it? Now…..remember what happened when Bernacke said… “Well, eventually this easing will someday have to end.”?

So….. what to do?

Quietly exit…  slowly get off the ice so no one notices….  Just be totally off before all the cracking starts….  and the scrambling begins.

The data center noise was dismissed as being no more than the level of a conversation.   Rep Paul Baumbach replied it was a 24 hour conversation. So it’s 3 am. If someone is standing outside your bedroom window having a conversation.  Will you hear them?  Will it wake you?

The Data center is slated to use gas developed from the Marcellus Shale region to our northwest.

Unlike the old sources of natural gas in Texas and Louisiana, the Marcellus Shale natural gas has a high concentration of Radon.

Radon has always been known to embed itself in natural gas.  However the gas coming into Newark’s Data Center Power Plant, will have a higher concentration of radon. from the shorter distance it travels, and from the higher concentrations known to abound in Devonian shales ranging between 8 and 32 times more powerful that that found in Gulf gas wells.

A high of 2576 pCi/L. versus a low of 37 pCi/L for Gulf and Texas natural gas.  Furthermore, at at half life of 3.8 days, radioactive radon will have a higher concentration traveling just 300 miles at 10 miles per hour as opposed to 1800 miles through a trans-continental pipeline.

Being an inert gas, radon will not be destroyed when natural gas is burned… As an inert gas radon if inhaled, will be exhaled. The problem is that radioactive elements break down into other elements. When radon decays one of the elements it leaves behind, is lead.

Inside nine power plants studied, the radioactivity from radon was under 8 mR/hour.  When radon decays one of the elements it leaves behind, is lead.

So how much radon will be emitted?

If we take the assumption given to us by the investors that this powerplant will run at full capacity 24/7, then a 248 Megawatt plant will require 1736 GJ’s (gigajoules) of natural gas each hour….<Convert 1736 Gigajoules to Cubic Feet Of Natural Gas“> 1,645,410.52 cubic meters containing at an average of 1450 pc/ls or 39Bq/m*3 and multiply all together, we get this amount of Radon falling down on Newark…. 64,482,304 Bq’s….

Just for the record, Canada set its safe level at 200/m*3.

Particles tend to fall one meter for every meter they extend outward from their source. In a stack they can continue much higher than the stack itself, as the thermal current carries the particles upward. Once they begin to fall they usually without wind drop one meter per meter heights…

If one takes the trajectory of the Delaware City Power plants plumes the most oft direction is northeast. One could assume those directly northeast of the power plant would feel the most effect from having 64,482,304 Bq’s raining down on them each hour….. this is compared to the 10 Bq’s found in open air...

Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer behind smoking. 8% of lung cancer deaths are currently attributed to ambient radon. That which is naturally occurring. Those facing higher concentrations, have a higher incidence.

Newark is guaranteed to have a higher incidence than current, if this power plant goes through…

How much difference? Try 64,482,304 Bq’s to 10 Bq’s of a difference…. Get ready to die.

Maybe you’ve heard, maybe you haven’t…  But Democrats have allowed a SNAP cutback agreed with the Republicans at some point in the past, to go into effect….

John Carney is in agreement.  Here is how that cutback will affect John Carney’s district, a district at large for the entire state of Delaware….

In Delaware there are 332,350 households.  Of those, 36,382 receive snap benefits.  Leaving 295,968 which do not.

Of those 36,382 households, 26,763 are families.  Of these families, 31% have two more more workers in the past 12 months.  50.1% of these families have one person working over the past 12 months.  Only 17.7% fall in the category commonly associated with food stamps.  people who are not working.

The benefits will be cut $11 dollars per month per single person, maxing out at $36 dollars per month for families four and over….  Using the figures above,  per month the 9619 individuals will cost Delaware $105,809 in less food purchased, and the 26,763 families will spend $963,468 less food dollars.  These are rough estimates using the averages provided here.

But these cuts mean that grocery stores across the state starting in November will receive $1 million less in sales for every month.  Of course a year means that 12 million will not be entering the Delawarean economy per year.

How does that affect the grocery business?

There are 326 Grocery stores listed in Delaware.   Although stores closer to areas that are less affluent will suffer worse, the average monthly loss to this slice of our economy per store is $3280 dollars.   Each store over the course of a month will lose $3280 dollars.  In a classic business structure, one expects to pay one third for product, one third for labor, and one third to everything else.  If one profits, it is because one has beaten the odds in any of those three categories…   Meaning that labor will be impacted by one third or $1100 each month….

Each of the grocery stores on average will need to cut $1100 each month…  because of John Carney’s support of this piece of legislation.

One can expect the entry positions to be cut first.  Entry levels are minimum wage, but just for our calculations, let us go with $10 per hour.   100 hours can be expected to be cut….  or if not spread across the staff, their loss will cost the removal of 2 and a half workers from each of the 326 grocery stores in Delaware…..

Across the state that carries to 815 jobs….

So the cutting of  SNAP benefits to appease Republicans appears to now cost Delaware an additional loss of 815 jobs….  According to August 2013’s  figures,  there are 51,200 Delawareans working in Delaware’s retail trade.  815 of those jobs disappearing is a 1.5% drop in that industry…. It is a small percentage of our total state workforce… 2 hundreths of one percent.

As of August 2013, there were 30,658 Delawareans out of work…  Add 815 and that new total, 31,473 jumps Delaware’s unemployment rate from its reported 6.9% up to our 7.1%…..

Now this does not account for 6 months later, when the impact of losing the cumulative of losing 1.1 million every month starts hitting farms.  Nationally the drop is $5 billion.  Simply put.  $5 billion less in food will be purchased over the course of a year….

Product will be scaled back, and most likely so will the payments to farm workers.  This too starts impacting the economy negatively…..

The giant agribusiness, will be most affected.  With fewer people buying their products, they must too cut back.

So, once again, we have cutting back on a Federal program that directly subsidized farm production, impacting the single common denominator of every single citizen… Food.

Like the floor of a skyscraper, once the first floor collapses onto the next, that one too gives out and drops downward as well, taking the next floor with it….

Most people don’t know how subsidies work; they never would complain about SNAP if they really knew.

Just heard that discussion was flying around Moody’s after the Fitch announcement today, over whether their rating should be in the “B” range or “C” range if the default occurs.

One train of thought was that with the alternative universe Republicans currently live in, where thinking that  we can weather the default of the debt ceiling as well as the government shutdown indefinitely or until at least Obama puts in his resignation papers,  dropping  the USA’s rating only a point or two, would not be an accurate portrayal of the risk.

These rating organizations have a reputation to keep.  Were they to make the bonds drop only from A+++ to an A++, or down to an A+, it would give credence to the viewpoints of the alternative universe’s thinking that “gee, that wasn’t so bad” and prolong the crises.

If the US Government can’t decide to open itself up, and can’t decide to pay the obligations to which it has already committed, then it is no better than Somalia, or Chad, or the Central African Republic They can’t open due to war and insurrection; we can’t open because of immature legislators.  The result is the same;  they aren’t governing, and that is a bad risk. Except we have a lot more money than Somalia, Chad, and the Central African Republic, which will depreciate faster than the Titanic hit bottom once it finally slipped under.

And that is the other side of the argument.  That considering the outcome of default, and effect of the lowering of the rating, that perhaps modifying the amount of the drop might be prudent.  Drop the bond ratings to the level of Portugal or Bulgaria, keep it in the “B” range, instead of the Somalian range where it belongs.

Then the other side counters back… But if we do that, the Tea Party will say, “see, they were lying, default is not as bad as they said…” 

Most likely they will err on the side of caution.  Drop it into the “B” range….  Save the “C” range for another day…. 

That at least, was the rumor told to me as being the current mood at Moody’s…  As everyone knows, the “official” word could be a whole different level entirely.