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If I said… “Hey, dude, what happened 100 years ago today?”…. about 4 out of every 25,000 of you, would know and answer back with a question…. “Are you sure you are not talking about 100 years yesterday?” You would be officially right of course… June 28th…. But I would be “politically” right, I guess, (struggling for an adjective to describe the rightness I would be..).
To fill in the rest of the 24,996 of you…. yesterday marked the 100th anniversary of the shooting of the Archduke of Ferdnand,,,,
“Who the fvck is that?” say 24,996 people all at once…. (People in Oklahoma hear that rumble as another frack quake..)
Since reality is 100% of reality, I’ll take that on….
In 1914… there were 5 nations that mattered. One of the nations that didn’t matter back then would have been the United States; others: China, and Japan… The 5 nations that were relevant back then actually included Russia, believe it or not…. with Germany, France, Britain, and Austria-Hungary rounding out the full 5… This last nation, I always think of as a joke, and say so sometimes… (“What? Austria’s Hungry? What a joke!”) That is because I tend to ignorant of anything southeast of Germany… I’m an American, you know…
Austria Hungary was called the Dual Kingdom… Can you guess why? One was Austria, the other was Hungary. Austria ran Austria/ Hungary ran Hungary, and a couple of times a year they got together to coordinate… Those episodes resembled today’s divided Congress. Neither side would accept the provisions of the other…. and stalemate meant each could go their own way with little interference from the other… However on security matters they were conjoined… Austria had the military; a standing army of 900,000.. and Hungary bordered Russia from where any major attack would come…
To the south the ancient empire of the Ottoman Turks was decaying from its inside. Recognizing that most of the Empire’s attention had to be focused inside of Turkey proper, all 5 relevant nations begin eyeing the Balkans and Dardanelles and sizing each other up… Significantly, Russia was very nervous over the Dardanelles because the wrong person owning that property, could bottle her navy inside the Black Sea…
Austria had, in just a very few years before, annexed Bosnia, roughly the same size as it is today, by marching in and calling it their own… Serbia, had wanted the same, but was too small to do anything about it and no one came to their aid…. But people inside of Bosnia who had wanted Serbia to control it, had financial resources made available to help make that happen…
The archduke was the next in line to the Austrian emperor, who himself was getting quite old. Both the archduke and emperor were primarily pacifists who didn’t believe that war was profitable. But like any nation, within their cabinet as well as in charge of their military, they had well-spoken ministers who argued that a “shock and awe” first strike was always the best option…
Unfortunately for the world, it was one of those two pacifists who was assassinated 100 years ago today…. along with his wife… killed by what today would be considered a terrorist cell of about 5 people total… working independently… meeting in secret. etc. etc. They botched their previous attempts and by today’s standards were almost comical, until they finally got lucky on number 3…
Some people got the word 100 years yesterday… June 28th. Who these were, were mostly heads of state, many of whom were on summer vacation so telegrams had to jump all over the country, and in some places be put on skiffs and rushed out to meet the heads of states floating in the Baltic…. No one at first predicted what this assassination would preclude… Those who firmly believed in war, thought it precluded war. However most thought that was too unreasonable and assumed everyone would of course get mad first, then settle down and make certain arrangements and life would eventually go on as normal….. After all, worse crises had been settled such….
There were two small problems… One involved the signing of treaties, some secret and some not, that tied promises of reaction to any military invasions of one of the signatories… The other, was the Victorian mode of character which dictated that one dutifully filled out one’s signed obligations, regardless if they had been originally made in error… One filled out ones obligations and damned the torpedoes.
In efforts to preserve a peaceful Europe, (which had been effective for 40+ years, and probably a world record at that time)…. alliances had been made loosely between Britain, France, and Russia… With the two extremes of East and West appearing united, this left vulnerable those who could get crunched in the middle, so they formed an alliance too: Germany and Austria-Hungary….
But no one ever thought they’d be used. Ever! Europe was one chummy place. The heads of England, Germany, Russia were all related, and met for state weddings and funerals regularly. Vienna was one of the playful destinations in Europe, and socialites from all 5 nations frequented there every summer… It and Paris vied for the Art & Music capitols of Europe… Tension was not like during our Cold War at all. Europe was very open and much like international relations today, where one could travel freely, where all the big powers meet occasionally and decided how to deal with each of little tweaks and interruptions….
So 100 years ago today, people woke up to this assassination story …. Today (yesterday) is the real beginning of the count-down-clock because for the first time in European history, the populations inside the nations were to have a profound impact on the upcoming events to come… (even though the structures of the governments were very closed to all but the upper crust of society…) Public opinion primarily through the growth of large metropolitan newspapers, had become an influence that had to be “reckoned with”.
For Austria Hungary was hot! You can imagine if Joe Biden was killed. Though some here love him, and some here make fun of him, … were he assassinated, this entire nation would demand retribution…. So Serbia got blamed…. In Austria-Hungary, with one pacifist dead, and the other now solo against a cabinet calling for an invasion, the call to go to war with Serbia came quickly…
Serbia appealed to their soul mate Russia. There had always been a deep Slavic bond between the two nations… and the head of Russia, when confronted with the fact that his people would rebel against him if he ignored his brother nation’s plea, said Russia would attack Serbia’s attacker if Serbia were attacked by Austria Hungary… Military philosophy at this time dwelt solely on the benefit of a quick attack. All armies were trained to attack, not defend. Simply put, the philosophy was that if you attacked quick enough, you always won… And all nations suffered from this delusion, though reality had showed it certainly hadn’t worked in all the proxy wars (Boer, Sudan, Balkans)…. As Austria began to mobilize her troops towards Belgrade, Serbia’s capital, Russia began mobilization to send it’s troops to the Austria-Hungarian border….
Austria Hungary had the second largest standing army in Europe (Russia had the largest due to its gigantic size relative to European nations) but even still, Austria-Hungary could not both defend its border, and attack/occupy Serbia simultaneously… Therefore they appealed to Kaiser Wilhelm to promise an attack on Russia if Russia attacked The Dual Kingdom… Previous handshakes had sealed the deal long before, and the Kaiser promised he would….
Now this caused a dilemma within Germany’s army. Their plan had long called for first attacking France … France was the more dangerous of the two, so it made great sense to defeat France first and then attack Russia, instead of attacking Russia and have a fit France barge in through the back door… No one had ever considered the option that perhaps a minor limited war with Russia could happen first without French involvement. But plans were plans and the detail in them was so meticulous that there was really no option to opt-out and siphon off troops to the Russian Border…. (all the trains would be tied up and busy carrying soldiers to the West) until after France and fallen and signed their surrender… The surprise Russian build-up now meant it was more imperitive than ever that France surrender before Russia could mobilize to march into Prussia proper….
France was insistent that it would not make the first move. They tried to dissuade Russia to stand down, but Russia’s people felt a personal insult (and a rational fear of internal overthrow) if Serbia fell, so that didn’t happen. The French who were the villains of the last European War( the Franco-Prussian War that ended in 1870… a quick war, which France had lost, and been paying repatriation upon for a long time), were very squeamish about being considered the aggressor again, and so they mobilized defensive forces and fortified their common border with Germany, just in case.
Britain’s Prime Ministe firmly believed in making alliances but also keeping them secret so both his allies and enemies would be left guessing… He was so good at it, that the Kaiser was convinced upon invasion, that Britain would definitely not interfere and that Paris would fall quickly as had long been planned (across twenty years)….
The accidental player in this scenario, turned out to be the tiny little neutral nation of Belgium…… With no real army and a reputation for being a peaceful take-what-comes population, its future role had been dismissed by Germany, France and Britain… Germany simply assumed that it being a neutral nation, it would take the gentlemanly course and let the German’s pass through unopposed to attack France where it lacked defenses. Britain and France had assumed due to its neutrality, Belgium would be off limits for any German advance….
As troop deployments began to show the German’s hand, four nations raced to shore up that area…. Belgium said it would not allow German passage and began to mobilize its defense…. (This infuriated the Kaiser who apoplectically raged how dare that tiny nation not fall in line with Germany’s plans; who did they think they were?)… which shows how reality and clear thinking often had little voice in governments at that time…. Assumptions made by whomever was annointed head of state, tended to always carry the heavier weight.
With everything ready and the impetus on the Axis (Germany/Austria) to strike quickly and the Entente (Britain, France, Russia) to wait and only fight defensively, all pieces were in place for what everyone thought, would be a short little war… Most analysts assumed everyone lacked resources or the will to fight in order for it to carry over 2 months… “By Christmas all the troops would be home” each nation’s people were promised….
What impressed me most upon looking back from a 100 years’ perspective and I guess it is true with any war, was how life went on normally for 99.999% of the world’s population while this crises brewed… Future weddings were planned, meetings between future adversaries were scheduled, treaties and statements of purpose continued to be signed between the future enemies… At any point, if anyone powerful enough had said, “STOP! let’s talk about it”, (as is done so often today it now seems like an extra step), this war would have been prevented… If Russia had not mobilized, this would have remained a local conflict, taking place only on Serbian hillside whose outcome have been very quickly settled. Or if Britain had been forthright, stating that it would come to France’s aid and attack German interests, then the cost of war would have risen to where the Kaiser would have backed down from attacking France first and would have made a deal with Russia… If Germany had not been locked so deep into its own plans, so that once the order was given to mobilize it started everything which precipitated the next step automatically like a line of dominoes. …. if any of these occurred prior to the First World War , history would be far different today; The First World War would not have happened…..
The suddenness is simply mind boggling. How could Europe go from congeniality and peace and prosperity and hope, to an all-out brawl. Like a bar fight that erupts instantly leaving lifelong scars?
It would be like today… if we opened our paper and read the news that one of Putin’s emissaries was assassinated in Sevastopol, Crimea…. And… by this upcoming Saturday (July 5th), Russia had asked China if it will help fight and China agrees. .. and exactly two and a half weeks later on July 23, Putin’s Russia surprises the world with an ultimatum to Ukraine designed to be so harsh that the Ukraines cannot possibly accept it. The world holds its breath, and the 5 day deadline passes, and Russia declares war on the Ukraine…. July 28th, exactly on month from today!
NATO mobilizes, beginning with their declaration… . All NATO units are then put on full reserve and active units are then moved into Turkey, Uzbekistan, Poland, and Finland, positioned along their borders with Russia….
On the last day of this month, July, China calls upon the NATO to stop its mobilization…. NATO says no; it is mobilizing solely against Russia and for only the protection of the Ukraine people…. Then on August 1st, China declares war on NATO, including the US….
The very next day, August 2nd, China bloodlessly rushes in to occupy North Korea … China then demands of South Korea to let them use its seaports to facilitate their landing craft invasion against Japan. They promise that after hostilities are over, all Korea will be free and promise it can under them become one nation again…
The very next day, on August 3rd, China declares that the state of war now exists between it and Japan, Taiwan, North Vietnam, and the Philippines, and moves their navy into blockade those ports… All those nations plea for help from the US and the US promises it….. South Korea to the Chinese surprise, announces despite overwhelming odds, it will NOT grant permission for China to enter peacefully, NOR allow Chinese military hardware into its country…. A brief testing skirmish occurs on the 53 parallel between US and Chinese troops becoming the first engagement of the war…. On this same day unknown to almost everyone, China and most Latin America nations sign a secret treaty…. relating strictly with the US and stating that if China is attacked, Latin America will side with China in order to protect their massive investments there….
The very next day, August 4th. China swiftly invades South Korea and quickly over runs Seoul and commandeers all the ports on the peninsula. China’s massive merchant marine of commercial cargo ships out of nowhere suddenly gather outside all of Korea’s ports. The US protests. calling for China to leave Korea. China flatly says it won’t. The US declares war on China…. The Chinese merchant marine begins loading up the 2 million troops and lands them on the remote undefended section of north-western Japan… Within 7 days, 2 million Chinese are moving towards Tokyo….
The very next day, August 5th… Latin America surprises all and closes shuts down all commerce with the US, closing it’s borders… All US firms have their property confiscated to be nationalized and the Panama Canal is closed to all but Latin American and Chinese traffic…
The very next day, August 6th… Putin’s Russia declares war on the US and NATO….. and for what it is worth, the Ukraine declares war on China….
The very next day, August 7th… The first US troops from Okinawa, land in Japan and rush north to engage the advancing Chinese… Battles ensue and the Chinese throughout the next week, till the 13th, win all of them…
The very next day: August 8th… NATO and the US finally declare war on Russia…
For the next week, all eyes focus on China’s advance to Tokyo. Then one week later, August 15th… Ukraine counter attacks a Russian outpost on its border, and regains control of the entire border area… The Russians run back across the border. It will be the first allied victory of the war…
Two days later… August 17th… The US and NATO forces invade Russia proper upward from Uzbeckistan, and upwards from Turkey through Sochi, and eastward into Belarus from Poland, and towards Leningrad from Finland….
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4 years later, 2018, the armistice will be signed, leaving 37 million souls dead…. 93 million wounded for life…. and 34 million people simply missing… never heard from again…. And the borders between most of the big players will primarily remain just as they are… ( Hopefully all parties refrained from nuclear weapons….. or citizen causalities would be uncountable.) Unsettled emotional antagonisms will continue to fester, and won’t be settled until after the next great war beginning in 2039…..
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This is how life changing that event was 100 years ago…. Literally it came out of nowhere….. Just take a moment to consider the breathtaking speed with how fast this occurred and stretch your imagination wide enough to take in us being in a full fledged real world war equivalent to WWI in less than one month and 5 days from today, as you read this and the News Journal and fret over Greg Lavelle… ….. Maybe this could happen today, maybe not. You and I need to make sure the “not” wins out…. were such a crises to occur.
The lessons of yesteryear are so lost on us today, as I’m afraid they are on every new generation. I only share interest because of a personal bond with a relative, who was called to France in 1918. So unlike most today, this history to me is something very real. Upon my passing, there will then be no one to remind us of how stupidity can sometimes take over an ruin a world of good… But for the rest of you, 100 years ago today you would be just reading about this life-changing first step in the paper…. (yawn) another assassination in Crimea… possibly thinking “awwww… how sad”… but never dreaming it would within four years time, cause you to lose your entire family in the same amount of time that briefly passes between two World Cups….
Life should never be taken for granted. Lesson. Always be vigilant against war. Always.
Those in favor of gun control, that is putting responsible limits on who can own weapons, out raised campaign donations for the first time, far, far more than those nuts who think criminals, mentally insane, and everyone else should wear their guns openly and engage in gun battles at the OK corral….
By a whopping 43% !!!! Raising$ 21.3 million to the gun lobby’s $16.3 million,
Three fourths of the NRA’s PAC money was donated by self defense corporations like Smith Wesson, Glock, and Remington, in order to promote brand loyalty inside the cult group often known by its other name: the National Rifle Association even though it has very little to do these days with rifle safety. Today. this organization’s primary concern is putting military hardware and concealed handguns into the hands of every possible citizen, and to use television to encourage even minor disputes to be now be settled by open street or in home warfare…..
The Gun Squirrels on the other hand, raised most of their money from moms and pops who were against gun violence. They donated for their children’s sake. Their average donation was under $53 dollars…. They got more.
Prior to the Newtown shooting…. the gun lobby had out-raised gun control by as much as 100 to 1…. Politically this new found wealth has stopped the threat of the NRA and has rendered all their current bluster and threats, toothless….. In special elections since 2012, by a ratio of 5 to 1, Gun Squirrels have beaten the pants off the gun nuts….
This is a good thing…. Even though our politicians are rather spineless, and cow before a rabid foaming bunch of erectile dysfunctionites, even to the point of cheering for a senile Mitch McConnell holding a rifle up over his head (they made sure it was unloaded before giving it to him) as he addresses the CPAC crazies, normal moms and pops have turned the corner and are realizing that if they want their their children to live safe lives… they need to buy back their dirty politicians…
So they raised more….
Please help: Here is Gabby Gifford’s organization: Americans for Responsible Solutions…. Give a sigh of relief, relax, and give a tiny amount as have millions of other normal Americans intent on ridding ourselves of the gun lobby forever… It should be a word of encouragement to us all, to remember that MADD, who remained steadfast against what once appeared to be almost unlimited funding of the liquor lobby…
But as more people died from drunk driving incidents, people simply got fed up with those on the right who obviously didn’t have hearts and were pushing for more killing, more heartbreak, and more family destruction…. Like that battle, today our battle has turned and if you join now, you can be part of making it acceptable to regulate both guns and live ammo the same way we regulate drinking and driving……..
They have rights, for sure, but not at OUR expense.
Courtesy of Sprinkler Scape.
Republicans gorge themselves over having a second black couple to diss….
Yum,Yum,Yum.
By coincidence, two articles came up side by side. One involved the verdict of the Steubanville case and the other a very racist incident at a CPAC forum in DC yesterday.
In both, the perpetrators were southern white males who think they world owes them everything, who felt they were entitled to do whatever they wished simply because they were southern and white.
In one a woman was raped and left for dead.. In another, a shouting match occurred between white supremacists and very conservative Afro Americans, right inside the CPAC forum itself…..
The Steubenville verdict went against the males, but the whole town had rallied around the football star who performed the rape, bragged about his conquest, and painted the woman as one causing the crime. Her crime he said? She went to a party… Implication?. If you don’t stay at home, you are legally allowed to be raped…
This is the typical thought process among conservatives, even here in Delaware… To them the law exists only to protect the rights of the most powerful. The law protects wealth. It matters little what the law actually says on paper. If you know a sheriff (even if he is only a paper pusher) you can get out of any crime you want… BAM! Case dismissed.
Likewise. in the CPAC discussion, in trying to “teach” conservatives how to talk about “those people” the example of Frederick Douglas, a former Republican, was brought up as the proper example..
“Frederick Douglas forgave his slave masters.” The reply was: What!! For giving them food? For giving them shelter?”
The conversation then turned vicious on all those Conservative Afro Americans in the presence of that group…
“I don’t care how much the KKK improved,” one said. “I’m not going to join the KKK because the Democratic Party founded the KKK.” (If it was founded by Republicans, he’d join; just like he was against Republican healthcare only because Democrats borrowed it and ran with it).
When one conservative who took offense at the suggestion modern Democrats were descendants of the KKK, tried to ask a question later once things finally calmed down. She was booed and screamed at by audience members.
“Let someone else speak!” one asshole in Revolutionary War garb shouted.
“You’re not welcome!” a white-haired older woman named Eileen, yelled.
Many of the conservatives interviewed said they enjoyed the event. “Bout time the truth ’bout us whites got out there..” “They were just telling the truth,” another said.
As the media swarmed around the white supremest, a woman wearing a Tea Party Patriots CPAC credential who had shouted down Brown earlier urged him not to give his name to the press. When asked, she wouldn’t give her name either..”.There’s no doubt the white males are getting really beat up right now cause they’re stupid! , It’s unfair,” she said. “I agree with that!. My husband’s one of them. ”
Another said…” if you let Blacks cast a fraudulent vote you are depriving someone else of the right to vote, because you are canceling a vote that was legitimately cast by White people.,” he said ” white culture was being denigrated” “I’m not going to make a general statement about that, but obviously whatever culture you come from there’s somebody who is opposed to it,” he stammered.
CPAC later sent a white washed email to TPM that blamed the entire disruption upon a black woman who supposedly worked for the government of Russia…..
And despite the prayers of the townspeople of Steubanville, all three males were guilty as charged of multiple rape…..
So what does this have to do with you?
If you give up. If you relax and stop fighting. If you turn your attention elsewhere for a brief moment, this ugly undercurrent which is very strong, will surge, rise up, overrun and ruin your lives….
We can’t have that. The last election is not over. There is another one coming up in less than 20 months… One has to hold the Republican Party accountable for sanctioning and allowing these people to represent them. The Republican Party needs to cut these awful people off. It needs to say, “you are not my child; from now on, you do not exist…”
The slime will then, without attention or support, crawl back into their holes and go away….. There will always big, fat, ugly earthworms… Fortunately they always remain underground and we never see them…. Only when the Republican Party cultures them and brings them out into the open… ….. Only when it rains.
Point is. If the Republicans don’t call these horrible people out, and excomminicate them entirely from the party, no one! no one! should vote for any Republican until they are gone!..
Btw, things are going very well in Delaware with an all Democratic government top to bottom. Perhaps the rest of the nation would like to have things work out well too?
At least, have a party that doesn’t promote the rape of women and racist violence against anyone who is not a dumb white male?
In an exchange below, the campaign manager of one of Voices 4 Delaware confirmed that the only reason his candidate was added to that group, and he insists (I believe him) it was unknowingly, is because the Teacher’s Union, DSEA supported her opponent….
Outside money does not have a right to disrupt local school board elections. They can because of Citizens United, but it means voters have to rally to make all that money spent on PAC’s a complete waste.
If every PAC loses, then Citizen’s United is meaningless….
But, as pointed out in my Nasty Boys piece below, this whole school board race is about… busting the fuckin’ unions.
His quote….
(He) didn’t believe insurance companies should cover contraception at all.
“This has nothing to do with access,” he said. “This is having someone pay for it, pay for something that shouldn’t even be in an insurance plan anyway because it is not, really an insurable item. This is something that is affordable, available. You don’t need insurance for these types of relatively small expenditures.
Meanwhile Viagra, and Cialis, are not only to be kept on insurance plans, but can be advertised at times when young children are watching.
To sum it up:
We will not fund women’s birth control
We will fund medications that give a hard-on for four or more hours.
Have Republicans lost their minds?
kavips 