I was in disbelief… Really, was it the AP? It was almost an “Et tu, Brute” moment….
Of course, by now everyone knows the American media is bought out… Of course, duh… Afterall, who is it all run by? Billionaires? Duh… We know that.. Amazon owns the Washington Post, for heavens sakes… Murdoch owns the Wall Street Journal and the National Geographic, for heaven’s sakes… Anyone with a brain noticed changes immediately occurring after each change in ownership….
But until now the AP has always stood on its credibility. It allegedly is owned by the sources it reports to and gathers information from. They never say anything speculative. They never say anything purposefully untrue. They never say anything to influence results… When they call a race on election day, they are the ones the rest of us use to confirm the same suspicions we gathered from viewing all the same evidence.
If fact, with the modern age, and the ability to see results turned in precinct by precinct, one can now see how they actually call races and are able to predict that exact moment when a candidate crosses the line which precludes no other possible outcome.
Today, June 7th, our most populous state (among others) goes to vote. To announce the overall winner the night before invites speculation of foul play… Upon hearing this newsbit from someone more glued to their phone than I, the immediate question that popped in my mind over all others, was… hmmm why couldn’t they wait one more day?
I wondered in this progression…..
A) Are they trying to persuade people NOT TO VOTE…
B) Are they trying to make sure no one else calls it before them , thereby getting to be considered the “new” expert and steal their place in all future contests as the final arbiter?
C) Are they showing off how they don’t have any morals? (“We’re bad; we’re bad”) Hounding superdelegates months on end reminds one of the ambulance chasing lawyers of the late 70’s?
D) Or are they jumping on the current news mantra of trying to create news, instead of report on it?… And therefore by pre-calling for Hillary to be the winner, minimize any Sander’s future claim on the superdelegates?
If you look at numbers, it seems funny for what you don’t hear….. Minus the superdelegates, here is where all stand.
2383 Delegates are required to win.
- So far Hillary has won 1812.
- So far Sanders has won 1521.
Ok, granted, so looks like Hillary’s ahead…
OH, but WAIT…..
694 Delegates are being decided today…. And most are in areas where Sander’s does really well…
As a baseline let us see what do we get if there is a 50-50 split of these potential delegates?
- Hillary will have 2159
- Sanders will have 1868
In this case, Hillary will be the winner.
So continuing the speculation, what if it goes 60-40 towards Sanders?
- Hillary drops to 2089
- Bernie rises to 1937
Hillary is still the winner.
But what if it squeaks to 63-37 split towards Sanders?
- Hillary has 2068
- Bernie has 1958
Ah, ha. So what if it becomes 65-35 towards Sanders?
- Hillary has 2054
- Bernie has 1972
Again, same winner. This race for pledged delegates was lost in PA, DE, and MD on April 26.
After fiddling around for a magic number where the delegates gain parity, we find the breaking point at….71-29 in Sanders’s favor….
- Hillary at 2013 pledged delegates
- Bernie at 2013 pledged delegates
Obviously neither candidate will have enough “pledged” delegates to clinch the nomination by the end of today.. So regardless of today’s outcome, the ultimate nominee will depend on their split of Super Delegate votes entirely to settle the outcome. This is a solid nod to the effectiveness of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party for being able to mount a significant challenge against whom all assumed would be the ultimate nominee as far back as 2008….
Therefore regardless of delegate outcome, it will be a contested convention in which deals get made to secure support and whoever makes the best deals to the most superdelegates, wins the race. This is not necessarily bad for America. Many of our finest presidents were elected in conventions by using this method… Of the many, both Roosevelts immediately come to mind.
So for the AP to already announce the winner based on super delegates alone is preemptive… It is like calling a playoff game over, before all time is gone.. Many of us not in a official capacity, have done that…saying:
This game sucks, season’s over; we know the winner, let’s get out of the stadium and beat the 3 hours of traffic that first three miles…
But at no time in my recollection have I ever seen a televised playoff game “officially called” before the final ticker to show another close game deemed more exciting in a different venue… But that basically is what the AP just did…
This playoff game is over. We will move on to the next one.
Although there may be a 90% chance that their prediction is correct, things are never over until they are over….
Some of you former Viking fans may be old enough to remember one playoff game when with less than thirty nine seconds left, it seemed assured to fans on both sides that the Vikings would go on to their 3 straight Super Bowl appearance, their fourth overall that decade, and for the first time, win it against a Steelers team who at best was mediocre ….After all with less then 40 seconds on the clock, it was fourth down and 16….there were still 75 yards between the ball and goal line. This was the year; it WAS going to happen. This Minnesota win was assured…..
Only it wasn’t. It was the Cowboys who lost to the Steelers in the Superbowl X that year 21-17. The Vikings never made it past that playoff game against the Cowboys, having lost to them on a score of 17-14 due to one “Hail Mary” pass..
The point is this distinction.
When one has specific times that delineate the beginning and ending of competition, to officially announce the winner before it is over, is always the wrong thing to do… One is confusing probability with inevitability. Reporting should not be in the business to be an odds maker; instead one reports on final results, and the results reported though absolutely probable, are not yet final because while time is still on the clock, there is still potential that things could change.
And that is what is different in this call. It was made WHILE there is still potential for alternative outcomes, instead of being determined after the line had been crossed where no other outcome is possible.
Hopefully the AP’s mistake in judgment should give every potential Bernie voter that little extra kick to get out to prove the naysayers wrong… As for all Hillary voters out there, since the AP says she won anyway, seriously, for you, duh, what’s the point of voting? Why put yourself through it? Stand in lines in the hot sun? Oh please…Plastered in sweat? Really? You all might as well stay home. Your vote doesn’t matter anyway. She’s already won.