One thing to remember over this past weekend in which Bernie overwhelmingly won three Pacific Rim states. All three were caucuses, not primaries, and all were open.

This does not discount Bernie’s wins, but it does require explanation for the differences.

Look at it as a voter…  In a primary all you have to do is show up at a polling place and vote for candidates on your ballot.  You are done.

 

At a caucus, you first have to be highly motivated.  Because you leave your house and you show up at a venue expecting to spend long hours.  You get herded into camps and the candidate with the biggest camp, wins the delegates… Does that explain it well in common language?

So caucuses measure enthusiasm more than a candidates actual pull across a state. Many old people would love to participate in caucuses, but it would cost them severe medical strain to do so.  Caucuses tend to be populated by younger people who are more enthused, have less baggage, and less scheduling limitations…

But, it  is also how someone long ago decided delegates should be selected.

This is just a reminder that though Sanders did win 80% of the delegates over Hillary in those three states, it does not mean that all voters in those states will overwhelmingly and enthusiastically support him in the election..

So in analyzing these results from this past weekend, one should call it with these modifications.

Among highly energized democratic voters in these three Pacific Rim states, Bernie supporters took 80% of the delegates.  In caucuses attended by highly motivated voters including independents, Hillary supporters averaged only 2 out of 10.

Though that may not accurately describe a states entire political party, it does show who is able to  demonstrate enthusiasm in that state’s electorate…

If you happen to be voter who thinks the good times have past and really wants things to change for the better, enthusiasm is the first place one should look.

Advertisements