You can hear if from Deldem, a Hillary supporter…  “Looks like your candidate is out.”  The media across the board has echoed the same message… “Bernie is out of the race.  He can try going forward because he has so much money from his donors, but the race is over. He can’t win… ”

Hillary’s victory speech in Florida briefly mentioned Bernies campaign, then went into fluff mode.  Platitudes after platitudes like those extra fluffy lemon meringue pies being forced on you around large round tables in a banquet hall, none of which could be pinned to the protein of any policy.. Anything said, would cause her crowd to roar right then and as a listener focusing on what was being said, all those cheers were more for the incantational music of her speech, than the actual words being said…

Obviously she was tired and wanted the thing over… So, are her surrogates really telling the truth when they say the race is over? I had to look.

Current Delegate count: Hillary 1139 / Bernie 825 … these are the delegates won on primary and caucus votes. For now, we can ignore the super delegates who at a series of whims, can switch to Sanders and back to Hillary and over to Sanders again. Of real earned delegates, Bernie has 42% and Hillary 58%… 

The media is quick to just take the lazy approach… count states and call a winner. Hillary won all 5 states.  The Southern states went to her handily, and Ohio was 166,000 strong in her favor, and Illinois was within 34,000 votes…Chicago Democratic

Let’s look at Chicago…. Hillary won Chicago by 58,000 votes.  But she only won Illinois by 34,605 votes.  Which means… across the entire rest of the state of Illinois, from Wisconsin down to Kentucky, Bernie beat Hillary by about 24,000 votes. (From the map, the Black sections went Hillary. The white suburbs when Bernie. )

Missouri was very closely won by Hillary… 0.2% margin.  1531 individual votes.

Here is the state map of the results.

Missouri Primary

And here is how St. Louis voted…

St Louis

Meaning Sanders carried the entire rest of the state from Kansas to Illinois, by 5200 votes….

Counties in North Carolina and Ohio which had larger numbers of blacks, went for Hillary; in areas of fewer blacks, they tipped to Sanders.

This is important for you to know; from here we go forward…..

Arizona, Idaho, and Utah are up next Tuesday… Arizona has 4.7% blacks. Idaho has 0.8%. Utah has 1,3%…  Based on the above trends we should guess Bernie.  Of course, there are the Hispanics. Arizona 30% . Idaho 12% . Utah 13.5%. Some are using Florida to say Hispanics are solidly behind Hillary. But Hispanics in Florida are primarily of Cuban descent. In the West, they would be mostly Mexican.

A closer approximation would be next door Colorado which went 50%-40.3 for Bernie.  Colorado is 4.5% black, and 21% Hispanic.  Next Tuesday, 121 delegates are up for grabs in states heavily favored for Sanders. 

On the 26th, come Alaska, Hawaii, and very liberal Washington State.  We all know Alaska is too cold for blacks but 3.9% of their population stays there anyway. Fewer made it to Hawaii, 2.5%. Washington State sits on 4.1%…On this day 142 delegates are up for grabs in states heavily favored for Sanders.

The following week Wisconsin (6.6% black) splits up their 84 delegates and Wyoming (1.8% black) adds their 14…  It is possible at this point Bernie will have caught up with Hillary in earned delegates providing both a level playing field for New York’s 247 delegates on April 19th. …At 17.6% black New York is the potential Hillary win…

And the formula may be different then. After seeing win, after win, after win, after win, after win, after win, people who liked Bernie but thought he couldn’t win, may decide he can…  which is why you have to play these things out and not make snap decisions on March 15th of how people will vote far, far out into the future.

Hillary is strong in the South… Hillary won Ohio and Florida back in 2008. But she did not win the nomination in 2008.  Now the South is done, you can stick a dessert fork in it.  States that have previously voted in the areas into which the primaries now head, have mostly been above the 58% margin that Sanders needs to win.  67.7% of the vote in Kansas, 64.3% in Maine, 59% of the vote in Colorado and 61.6% in Minnesota, a close 57.1% in Nebraska. 60% back in New Hampshire..

So don’t be put off by the smugness of that team who just put up points on the board… They now have to shift to defense to minimize the yardage expected to come their opponents way… If they can’t slow the offensive, we then have a close race, keeping primaries in contention as we did in 2008 right up to the very end….June 1st.

But it certainly looks like the media who was very wrong in Michigan, is very wrong now when they try to paint the race as over… and throw Deldem into that mix as well.

At the current spread of 314 earned delegates, this looks like the high-water mark of the Hillary campaign.  Looking at the map, all her strong suits are played out…. Bernie’s are just beginning.

After March 15

The gray……. is still in play…….

 

 

 

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