First congratulations to Hillary Clinton on her big win last night. But this race is no where near being over.
Still to come… Michigan, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio, Washington State, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California…
(Just remember that Obama won twice against Republicans and the map across the interior of the US, was almost all red..).
And though a win is a win for Hillary, we all knew in advance that the Southern states were very much Hillary’s for the taking. Especially after the exit polls of South Carolina…
One take-away for the sake of knowledge more than anything else is that blacks and Hispanics are going to Hillary at very high rates… Almost as high as they vote Democratic versus Republican… In fact when you list the winning states with the Afro-American population percentage coupled to them, you see interesting correlations.
By random coincidence all the states with over 8% Afro-American population went for Hillary, and all those under, went for Bernie. Even more pronounced are the county by county results. In areas of no blacks, Bernie won in the South or came within a few votes of tying. But in counties where blacks lived in numbers, the split was sometimes 80-20 in Hillary’s favor.
Now this does not mean Hillary should not be the candidate who wins. For the candidate who wins, needs to reflect the wishes of that country and soon in this country, whites will become the minority after 2045. So what Hispanics and Afro-Americans think, matters.
What whites think (according to the Mitt Romney 47% rule),….. not so much.
One of the surprises was how few votes in rural America are cast in Democratic primaries. In a number of counties Bernie won by 4 votes when only 6 were cast. Yet that paints a country blue for him and it goes in his tally.
Another eye opener was that more people voted for Trump on the Republican side, than voted for all the Democrats combined on this side, especially in the Southern States.
Rubio (did win Minnesota lately) was isolated in metropolitan areas. Atlanta went for Rubio; Arlington VA did as well. The rest of both states overwhelmingly for Trump. Fayetteville, Arkansas went for Rubio though almost the rest of the state, went to Cruz or Trump… In elite sections of Boston, Rubio was strong; Trump was weak. it is easy to see the stop Trump movement among establishment Republicans.
Cruz’s win extended beyond Texas and into Oklahoma. and with delegates from his original win in Iowa, he is still poised to give Trump a run. Rubio could catch up if he wins Florida later this month. but barring that, the establishment cannot get people excited as long as Trump is around.
But as spin doctors start telling you the race is over, be skeptical..It is no different than one team scoring a touchdown in football… Yes, they are up 7 points, but you have the ball. Can you tie? And once you do, it is a whole different ballgame.
So having Hillary win the her favored South, is like having the team with first possession and the wind at their backs work their way down to a touchdown and extra point. You get the ball next and if you give up and don’t execute, they win…
So Bernie fans, don’t roll over yet. It is still the first quarter….