Trump needs so start a party called the Trump Party..
If he can pull his current total of 33% of Republican votes out of the Republican Party, then at last presidential elections’s levels that would amount to 59,142,004 X .33 = 19,516,861… (Which would leave 102,240,549 left to be split between all 3 candidates…) The winner would need 40,585,803 to claim victory of the popular vote. Which means Trump would only need to pull 21,068,942 more from either Republicans, Independents, or Democrats to win the whole thing… But as the sole Republican nominee, if chosen, he will need 60,878,705 to win the popular vote… and will have to completely earn every one of the Republican votes given Romney in 2012, plus an additional… 1,736,701 from those who voted for Obama… To be clear, as the Republican nominee, he will need zero defections (not likely) plus 1,736,701 pulled over from die-hard Obama supporters.
Numbers alone, say his chances are far better to start up the Trump Party….. For if he does, even if he loses, he makes more money as a star commentator than he ever would as president under a capped salary… Considering everything he owned currently carries the Trump name, Trump Towers, Trump Taj Majah, Ivana Trump, I think the name Trump Party is very fitting with his personality and would resonate with lots of voters. You would not be voting for a status quo president if you supported the Trump Party. No question there.
Based on how well he’s doing so far, when he sees these numbers I’m betting he goes back on the worthless pledge he made and creates the Trump Party to win the thing outright….
But of course, the electoral college presents a whole different ball game… Which states would give him a majority, we lack data at this early time frame….
I was going to end there but am now intrigued by the electoral possibilities… Of the 538, he would need 179 to clinch a three way race….
I’d give him Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Arkansas, provided a business class type moderate takes the Republican nomination… That would be 139 electoral college votes.
The big question is Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia….. all swing states. If Donald is enough of an iconoclast all the way up to election day, then many of those who don’t vote because they think everyone is the same, may vote for the first time in large enough numbers to overcome the urban majorities that make those states blue…. If those three flip narrowly… then respectively he gains 29, 15, 13 for a total of 196. Since he only need 179, he could lose either Virginia or North Carolina and still become…President elect Trump…..
And it’s all because of his strong stance against all immigration… I don’t think he can win in a two person race, but it is possible that he wins as the third party spoiler candidate….
(originally posted on Allan Loudell’s blog)