Optimism, optimism, optimism…….
There is now hope. One third of the House Republicans joined the House speaker and voted FOR the Fiscal Cliff Legislation along with 174 Democrats, creating a new majority in the House. The Tea Party for now has been marginalized. As long as this group continues to vote for their constituency, which is usually urban, sophisticated, sensible, smart, well endowed, friendly, helpful, intelligent, kind, mathematically inclined, and very, very anti-fundamentalist, they will side on the side of Democrats, who have their own divisions to contend with…
There seems to be a possibility that the log jam that for so long has held up the Tea Party Congress, has been undone. This event comes upon the fact that Democrats overwhelmingly had a million more popular votes for Representatives than did Republicans, portending the only reason Republicans ever got elected, is through careful gerrymandering of their districts.
The Republicans starting tomorrow, will have even less of a majority. It will require fewer Republicans to side with Democrats to get things done.
The optimism in the markets comes from the speculation that we may be beyond the Partisan bickering that was caused by 100% of Republican intransigence. It does not bode well for Progressives. It does not bode well for Tea Party Republicans, but it does bode well for all American people who need things to finally get done….
In the new Congress, there are these sectors…. Blue Dog Democrats are now reduced to 12. The New Democrat Coalition will have 52. The Progressive Coalition will have 73…. leaving 64 unaffiliated…
The Republican split of roughly 1/3 (85) siding with the practical contingent and 2/3 remaining with the Tea Party Conservatives (149). So if we have a flux of moderate Republicans shifting to side with Democrats to push legislation based on reality, and Bluedogs shifting to support some Republican policies of principal, we may have enough movement to get things done….
Of course we will have to watch tomorrow’s vote to see if John Boehner can make it past Cantor. If the cliff vote is any indication, 85 shall side with Boehnor, and perhaps 152 side with Cantor. Of course these are rough estimates.
If Cantor wins, expect tomorrows markets to crash; investors knowing full well, stalemate of the protracted fight that will be coming up in two months.