I’ve commented on a lot of local blogs today. There is a common theme that needs pulled up for discussion.

Can we trust today’s polls?

WTF?  You guys actually expect us to believe you?
Chart Courtesy of Michael Brogan, Political Forecaster(right click for full view)

I say no.

First, the numbers being given do not match the 80% support Obama has on the street.

Second, with today’s technology, it is rudely simplistic to assume that polls aren’t being tweaked. Even as simply as choosing who to call, That one factor can throw a poll off the deep end. And don’t think, you’re cookies don’t tell everyone how you vote…

Hmmm, who should we call to represent Delaware… kavips? … or Ms. Evans?… it is that easy.

Third. The average national poll consists of 700 people. That means 7 people can throw a percent; 4 people throw it, if you round up or down. And you tell me you can’t “randomly” find 4 more conservatives than progressives, or vice-versa?

Fourth. The polling organizations are companies that pay out dividends to someone. People buy stock; they want results. Obviously reporting that a race is over in August, does little to generate more polls. More polls equal more revenue. There is considerable pressure to keep a national race appearing closer, than it really is.

Fifth. Who checks the veracity of pollsters? No one. There is no watchdog exacting penalties over fake results. So how do we trust it is real? Exactly. We can’t…

That is enough. Polling is only believable if it fits in with the general scheme of things as we see it.. If 80% of the population is hopeful this recovery is real, and happy about YAY! JUST PAID UNDER $3.50 FOR A GALLON OF GAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, then any poll not showing Obama leading 80 to 20 is simply a fabrication of one’s imagination…..

And in local elections? Forget it. Ask your neighbor who their county commissioner is? Yep. Exactly.

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