Today is a hot day. It is hotter than yesterday, which was hotter than the day before.
This would be a good time to analyze real data to see how Delmarva would perform with Bluewater Wind supplying our power, against how it would perform without Bluewater Wind supplying our power.
Anyone with good eyesight and a sharp mind can go to this site to find out how much money our power is costing our supplier each hour of every day. They can see that during the hours between 2 am and 6 am, that the power actually dipped cheaper than that supplied by Bluewater Wind in its PPA…. That price (bundled) was around $105 dollars per MWh. For the other twenty hours of the day, the bought price was higher. At one point, during the afternoon, it peaked at $378 dollars per MWh…. which is a pittance when compared to $105 dollars per MWh provided by Bluewater Wind. (snark alert….It is actually $273 dollars per MWH more expensive.)
Side Note: It is important for all Delmarva customers to understand that what they pay, is an average of all these prices over a month, averaged together….. But if you clicked the link and looked at the data, you would see that unless our Public Service Commission was actively monitoring this data and imputing these calculations into a calculating apparatus….. Delmarva could charge us whatever they wanted, and who would know?…… Let us make sure that office never sees budget cuts, huh, as is part of Charlie Copeland’s cost cutting plan….
So how does Bluewater Wind play into this equation?
The more Bluewater Power that Delmarva is forced to buy, the less of the $378 dollars per MWh during peak times, will be passed on to us……
So how much would that be?
Remember the argument that wind does not blow in the summer, when power is desperately needed?
Todays data from NOAA provided at the location where the proposed wind farm will sit….directly east of Indian River inlet, approximately 11 miles out……
On this day, June 10th, 2008, winds will range between 5 to 10 KT, becoming 10 to 15 KT late…
Using a GE 3.6 MW Series Wind Turbine (one made in the USA), each turbine would generate from 6 mph to 17 mph (the equivalent range of 5 to 15 KT’s) between .4 and 3.5 MW over the day’s stretch.
Now if we want to find a base level, we take the least amount: .4MW and do our calculations with that figure….
If each turbine of the wind farm is working, the low point of our day would be a collective 40MWH if we assume a base number of 100 turbines in operating mode… remember that is our low point… For reference only, on this slow doldrum of a day, our high point would be 350 MWh of electricity, more that adequate for the 300 MWh to be provided to Delmarva according to the ironed out agreements in the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).
Therefore, 40 MW of energy would be provided to the grid at a cost of $105 per MWh, instead of the current zero amount we have now… If we take PJM’s entire grid’s previous peak demand’s all time high of 144,644 MW (August 2, 2006) the measly 40 MW added to the grid, is a whopping 0.002% off our peak demand for which we collectively are to pay $378 dollars a MWh for the privilege of staying cool.
I do this to show that when it comes to windpower, more is cheaper than less….Any attempt to whittle down our windfarm will increase our electric bill higher each year….
Now at a 15 KT (or 17.5 mph) winds predicted for today….the 350 MWh generated (300 MWh of which will come to us, would increase the savings factor by a power of ten, and represent 0.002% of the peak demand total…
What impact does that do for the price?
Get ready for some big numbers….
144,644 MW x $378 dollars/ MWh = $54,375,432 dollars / hour
minus 350 MW x $105 dollars/Mwh = $36,750 dollars / hour
The amount saved would be a difference in the two rates $378 versus $105 times the number of Bluewater hourly MWh which according to the PPA will be 40 MW. Bluewater wind, in the worst case scenario, on the most expensive day, will save $10,880 an hour…..not a cost, mind you…..
Every other single day of the year, for the next twenty five year life of the contract, Bluewater Wind will save us much, much, more….
kavips 
5 comments
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June 11, 2008 at 8:06 am
Patricia Gearity
You go! Thank you for all the hours you’ve put in, researching and educating all of us on the important but often obscured truths of the wind energy debate. It is time for the Senate Democratic leadership to tell us who owns our state’s energy and economic and environmental future – the people or Pepco Holdings/Delmarva Power. Thanks to you and many others, there’s nowhere left to hide on the question. Up or down, it’s curtain up, spotlights on!
June 11, 2008 at 7:39 pm
Nancy Willing
Kavips for King! oh wait.
I jut googled you and found your Kos site, good work.
I am going around to research HB 268. Just got word that it would gut all protections of our natural and cultural resources to give free hand to developers.
June 12, 2008 at 12:50 am
Edmund Dohnert
kavips –
While I agree with you in principle that the more wind power we have, the cheaper our electricity will be in the long run, I’m pretty sure that you’ve made some serious errors in your calculations and somehow slipped a few decimel places along the way.
You state that Delmarva had an all-time peak demand of 144,644 MW. This number has to be WAY WAY off, for several reasons.
First, a 1,000 MW power plant is a very large power plant, and Delmarva would have needed the power from 145 of of these to satisfy such an enormous power demand. As it is, Delmarva/Connective has a handful of mostly medium-size power plants and buys the rest of its needs from the grid.
Second, if Delmarva’s peak demand generates revenue at some $54 million per hour, that would be equivalent to about $1.3 billion per day, and even ExxonMobil doesn’t make money that fast. Even if that all-time peak demand were say, 6 times the yearly average demand, at your stated $378/MWh price, that would still make Delmarva a $79 billion-per-year business.
Third, Delmarva serves something like 500,000 customers. The all-time peak demand of 144,644 MW would average out to about 0.29 MW or 290 Kilowatts per customer. The electrical system in the average residental home couldn’t even handle one-twentieth of that amount of power.
Are you sure you’re not (once again) confusing MW with MWh? It would make a lot more sense if that demand you cited were in terms of 144,644 megawatt-hours instead of megawatts. Because if so, spread evenly over a 24-hour period, it would correspond to a total all-time peak electrical power generation rate of about 6,000 MW, which is more in the ball park.
If such were the case (and I suspect it is), then Bluewater’s 300 MW would constitute roughly 5% of the all-time peak power demand, which is many times larger than the amount you had calculated. Thus, it appears you may have inadvertantly made Bluewater’s proposed wind farm appear far less important that it really is.
Hope this analysis was helpful
June 12, 2008 at 5:12 am
kavips
Dear Edmund Dohnert:
Remind me to take your comments more seriously, for you do indeed have an astute, and calculating mind.
You made me laugh with the image of 145 1000 MW power plants all belching sulphur dioxide just for Delaware’s SOS customers…..
Obviously you are correct. The error is rather simple.
It should have read PJM and not Delmarva Power..
For some reason I had Delmarva on my mind, (lol) and the error passed right through the proof reading.
Which means that the totals are still accurate, but not… just for our” tiny neck of the woods.” What is accurately shown by the above, is how little Bluewater Wind will impact the entire PJM grid, stretching form Chicago, across the (flooded) Midwest and Appalachian highlands, eventually encompassing the entire Mid Atlantic Region.
Based on usage, the PJM grid is the world”s largest power grid,
Despite the error, my post still proves the point I was wishing to make….and illuminates an intriguing possibility that I didn’t realize I was in the process of making…..which ironically….. may even turn out to be more important…..
First, it still proves that Bluewater Wind will save money even on a summer day, when the gird is “Bustin’ Loose.” Bluewater Wind will contribute $10,000 of savings during that hour……which of course, if it weren’t there, it would have to be paid by someone, somewhere else in the grid. That figure is based upon one maximum peak hour during which point in time, it will take up the least percentage of the entire grid’s MW. Incidentally on an aside note, it also would mean that during that peak hour, Bluewater wind would save 300 MW worth of high priced gas from being burned…..somewhere.
Secondly we see the minimal effect Bluewater Wind actually impacts upon the world’s largest power grid….).0002% Which in real terms means its negative impact upon the grid, despite what Delmarva has tried to paint, would be minimal if there was ever a time when the wind refused to blow………
As a result, because of my funny little slip up, we can see that multitudinous additional wind farms both onshore and off, can be wired into this monstrous grid with very minor negative side effects.
And that speaks rather well of wind wherever it may be found, of being a major player in our nation’s future advance to energy independence, ……..
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🙂 Still laughing at those 145 1000 MW power plants……………
June 12, 2008 at 5:48 am
kavips
In comparison, Delmarva’s record peak load in Delaware is on the order of 2800 megawatts (as of 2004)
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The day’s smallest amt.: 40 MW / 2800 MW = 0.0143 or 1.4% of peak load.
The day’s max. 350 MW / 2800 MW = .125 or 12.5% of peak load….