There is scrambling by all parties to shift the blame of “who is responsible” for the collapse of our financial institutions.
Republican operatives who just returned to Congress this week, had to tighten their reins over their membership which had just spent their Easter Break mingling among their constituents. Republicans, after hearing first hand from real voters, truly fear they are to be wiped off the face of the planet by November 5th.
And for once, they may be right.
For today, Americans of every economic strata feel betrayed, and naturally possess the anger that goes along with it. Ask any of those holding Bear Stearns stock just how happy they are with Republicans right now.
We all know that emotions are scurrilous things. They occur even when there is little factual evidence to support them. So it has been, with the blame being placed on Republicans for placing our once great prized economy on the auction block……Just fuzzy associations but as of yet there have been no direct links, provable in a court of law, that puts Republican philosophy in the Defendant’s chair.
Until now.
Those of us who have ever been betrayed, remember well those moments when the scales fall from our eyes, and our denial can no longer continue its walk on air. I could not believe my ears as I listened to this radio interview with Michael Greenberger when he spoke on NPR. The conversation is 39 minutes, but it provides a smoking gun that hinges Bear Stearns failure and subsequent bailout, onto the very backs of the Republican party itself……
Michael Greenberger, in a voice that is a good mimic of Peter Coyote, the voice over in almost every campaign ad or television documentary, describes in plain language exactly what went down. He should know. For during the Clinton years…..(those golden years)…he served as Director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In that capacity, he was responsible for supervising exchange traded futures and derivatives. He also served on the Steering Committee of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, and as a member of the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ Hedge Fund Task Force.. One can hear sadness in his voice as he describes, step by step, the dismantling of all the security devices which were once placed to insure what just happened, would never happen.
To understand what derivatives are and how they caused the current crises, one needs to understand that these OTC derivative markets are nothing more than “bets”. One bets that the housing market will continue to rise, or bets that it won’t, when buying into these plans. The underlying assumption being that the market would rise, so even if a homeowner were to default, his home would have increased its value more than enough to pay for the loan is what pushed this bubble farther than it would under its own power…….But if the markets fell, there was no bottom, since there was no underlying collateral to be gathered in its place. Once again we entered the realm of the 1920’s, where one could buy stock for 10% down. Back then we learned our lesson because of the Great Depression, and said “never again”. We regulated both the banks, and financial markets. And up until this administration, we regulated the OTC markets as well.
But then, late one December night, while America’s attention was fixed on the Supreme Court decision affecting the outcome of the 2000 election, a 262 page rider (Commodity Futures Modernization Act (“CFMA”)) was surreptitiously slipped into an 11,000 page Omnibus bill just as Congress was to leave on Christmas break, written in language that only a corporate lawyer could decipher, by one Senator Phil Gramm. (R-Tx). Not only did this rider wipe out all Federal oversight of this very speculative market, but it subsequently wiped out each and every state and local ordinance that up to that point, had regulated this commodity.
So started this shadow market. Instead of buying stocks and bonds, banks could place bets. The equivalent would be instead of buying a sports team, and investing in all the paraphernalia required that could subsequently pump money back into the economy, one could simply bet on them, and make much more money that way. Just as the sports betting economy, even though iit is huge, is totally below the economic radar, so was this market in dreivitives. There was no one overseeing it, thanks to Phil Graham.
As banks and major institutions began utilizing this new market, they came to the conclusion that they should place those very valuable assets on their books. So what is happening now, is nothing more than removing those questionable assets…..off the books. Since there was never any regulation, and since banks wanted to keep their financial pages attractive, there was no law that said losses had to be counted, and so they weren’t. Thus, even though this problem begin to turn sour years ago, no one except those whose position itself depended on their keeping that information quiet, even had a clue.
Basically what happened with Bear Stearns, was that one day, the bookie’s collector showed up at the door. “Uh…We’re here to collect.” Bear Stearns could hide it no longer.
Not all financiers fell like Bear Stearns. Some, like Goldman and Sachs to their credit, realized the housing market was about to deflate, and switched. They begin betting the other way; they bet the market would fall, and when it did, they weathered the financial storm better than most.
Essentially our great economy that has been hailed by the Bush administration as proving the wisdom of cutting taxes, has instead been driven by individuals huddled over their computers……staring at screens and making bets. Instead of building factories, extending the manufacturing base, driving new technologies, hiring and training real people, creating products that can be bought and sold, our economy is driven by a very few people…..making bets……
Our fortunes are being made…….or ruined…..by people making bets.
And this was accomplished by the sneaky tactic of one Republican, on the floor of the Senate in December of 2000., with no disclosure, no debate, and no reckoning.
That one person……Phil Graham (R-Tx) is currently serving as the Republican contender John McCain’s financial adviser. As we all know, John McCain by his own admission, does not know economics as well as he should. If he did, he most certainly would not have the single one person responsible for America’s economic fall from grace……..as his most trusted senior adviser…….
The Republican party is entirely to blame for our current economic problems. They shoulder the blame alone for creating this shadow economy that may still yet……………………..destroy us all.
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April 6, 2008 at 4:56 am
Davidlanderson
I think you are wrong on this one. The administration has done a tremendous job with the economy. At no other time in our history have we had such unbroken growth and high employment when we faced the outside turmoil half the level we have had in the last 7 years. I bet you a dinner that by November you will see positive economic growth likely this summer.
Would you recommend the Fed not do its job and let our financial markets collapse? The central bank moved in series of decisive actions going back to September. I believe we will see the wisdom of Treasury and the Fed.
It strikes me as interesting that the administration which bailed out Mexico, is opposed to maintaining stability in the U. S. Thank God for GWB.
April 6, 2008 at 8:32 am
LiberalGeek
Thank God for David Anderson. If it weren’t for him, there would be nothing at all to laugh about in this economy.
Kavips, when I read one of these posts, I am reminded just how stupid and shallow I am. You have been, are, and shall be for the foreseeable future, my hero. Bravo.
April 6, 2008 at 9:55 am
kavips
Dude, you underestimate yourself. And you overestimate me.
Here is my answer for David Anderson.
April 6, 2008 at 11:17 am
kavips
Having seen the above link, now let me respond.
Anyone can live well on a credit card when they don’t make payments. If that is your interpretation of a good economy, then within those strict parameters, I can see how you are correct.
And if your “overall economy” include massive corporate profits, (that are inflated by betting huge amounts and not expanding capital) then again, within those parameters, I can see how you are correct.
If when you include the consumer base, which in real wages is making less now than during the golden Clinton years, but spent the borrowed money based on the rising equity in their home to bridge the difference……..again within those parameters, one could blindly say the economy is “marvelous, simply….marvelous”.
In order to praise the economy, you are only looking at this nation’s asset column. Where within your assessment lie the liabilities?
Another miscalculation is your assessment of my viewpoint on the Fed’s actions. The recent move after Bear Stearns to stabilize the markets, shows the world that the Fed, unlike our current President’s public words, is quite aware of just how desperate we find ourselves today. Bernacke did a bold move. Being a historian of the Great Depression, he echoed Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s (Democrat) New Deal with decisive action, and for the moment, held back the flood. Fortunately for all of us, he acted on Democratic principals of intervention, and not the Republican one of laissez faire.
Like you too, I sincerely hope our country pulls out of its economic blues post summer. But unlike you,… I believe it will have little to do with this president. As our nation’s chosen Democrat gets closer to his inevitable coronation on November 5th, more and more foreign money will scramble in order to get in on the ground floor of the next Democratic economic revival, just as they did in 92-93…….
As for the dinner: warning……I don’t eat tofu.
Every house is expected to loose 50% of its value by 2010.
April 6, 2008 at 10:49 pm
cassandra m
A tremendous job with the economy would not result in a major financial institution suddenly collapsing, with a few more at risk at collapsing and a collapse of the housing market.
Unfortunately, the “economy” as reported by the financial press typically is interested in the health of markets. Too many people think that this health assessment is supposed to apply to the state of their own finances. It isn’t true , of course, and the disconnect between how working people saw the economy and how the media portrayed the economy is now wiped away.
Bonddad at the Daily Kos is always an invaluable resource (to me) in making sure that picture of how the economy looks from those who need to live in it is well documented.
Love the Peter Coyote comparison!
April 7, 2008 at 9:20 am
kavips
Cassandra: Thanks for the link. The next time anyone praises the Bush economy, those charts need to go up ASAP as “the other point of view.”
David: The ball is in your court……I am curious as to how anyone can still continue to defend the economy, especially when all of the evidence mentioned above, is running contrary to your prediction?
Sometimes optimism is warranted; most other times it is laughable, as when the free style rock climber misses a hold on El Capitan, and as he is falling to the rocks below, he says…..”Finally, ….Thank goodness, there’s a breeze blowing.”
April 8, 2008 at 12:29 pm
David Anderson
Good, I don’t eat tofu either. How can you claim that all homes will lose half of their value by 2010. The signs are different; existing home sales are already moving up and interest rates are going down.
Financial institutions can fail at any time. They did in the nineties. We had to have mergers to keep some. We also did so in the 80’s. This is nothing new. The question is one of the underlying economy. The numbers are sound. Inventory levels, productivity, ect. point to no recession or a mild one which will shake out inefficiencies. These are cyclical and necessary to keep the economy healthy just like cutting your nails or bathing (removes dead skin and dirt).
April 8, 2008 at 7:45 pm
kavips
I hope your are right, and I am wrong…..for all our sakes….
But I’m not the one calling for a 50% reduction in a house’s worth……Others closer to the issue than I, are……. and I’m just reporting it
Again the fallicy in your argument, is that none of the liabilities are listed above. You fail to account for debt. We owe more than we earn.
April 19, 2008 at 11:26 pm
jack snyder
A number of EPI Economic Snapshots featuring data from SWA are now available.
Dow’s all-time high inconsequential for most Americans
Last week’s record-breaking stock market numbers meant little to the bottom line of most workers, as the wealthiest 10% of Americans own nearly 80% of the value of all stocks. The Snapshot for October 11, 2006addresses the inequality in stock wealth.
Wealth inequality is vast and growing
Inequality in the United States is on the rise, whether measured in terms of wages, family incomes, or wealth, and is much higher than that of other advanced countries. The Snapshot for August 23, 2006 looks at the rising inequality of wealth.
Employers shift health insurance costs onto workers
Not only are fewer employees receiving health insurance through their employers, but those who still receive employer-provided coverage are now paying a larger share of those insurance costs. Get the facts at a glance in the Snapshot for August 16, 2006.
Work, poverty, and single-mother families
This month marks the 10th anniversary of the welfare reform legislation signed in August 1996. Those touting the program’s success often cite the sharp decline in the poverty rates of single-mother families over the course of the latter 1990s. But what economic factors are really at the heart of these improvements, and have they carried over into today’s economy? Get the facts in the Snapshot for August 9, 2006.
U.S. government does relatively little to lessen child poverty rates
U.S. policies have been relatively ineffective in reducing child poverty, with the highest child poverty rate of 16 other industrialized nations. Read more in the Snapshot for July 19, 2006.
Weaker job market re-opens racial income gap
The post-2000 labor market has reversed significant progress in the income gap between African-American and white workers, and in the current labor market the gap is likely to widen further. This week’s Snapshot previews data to be presented as part of the forthcoming The State of Working America, 2006/07. Read more in the Snapshot for July 5, 2006.
CEO pay-to-minimum wage ratio soars
Today’s average CEO earns more before lunch in one day than the average minimum wage worker earns all year, with a compensation ratio of 821:1. CEO pay continues to climb, while the federal minimum wage has remained unchanged since 1997. Read more in the Snapshot for June 27, 2006.
CEO-to-worker pay imbalance grows
Today’s CEO-to-worker compensation ratio (262:1) is the second-highest level ever recorded. In fact, the average CEO is paid in just one day of work about what the average worker has to put in a full year (260 work days) to earn. Read more in the Snapshot for June 21, 2006.
http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/previews.html
Kevin Phillips argues that most Americans and that includes the Middle and Working Class has lived very well on creative debt since the late 1950s. Creative debt gave the Working Class the look and feel of the Middle Class even if the prime drink is Miller Lite Beer. Since the introduction of the credit card Americans moved from the one car and 3 bedroom life style to the 1-2 car faily and 4 bed room life. They went from a 20 year home loan to now the 30-50 year home loan. More and more car buyers are locked into a 7 year car loan and that was unknown in 1958. PBS “Frontline” and Bill Moyers of “Now” reported that most families have now see most new job stuck at under $50,000-$55,000 the same level as it was 10 years ago. The so called best tax system in the world is the best only if you are an Investors according to Donald Trump and Warren Buffett.
April 19, 2008 at 11:52 pm
jack snyder
What Mister Anderson will not address is the trillion dollar misuderstanding the USA has with China as to trade imbalance, a sick dollar, and a sick economy. How can the USA compete in China in the making of a $12,000 car even if we dumped Union based labor wages? The era of cheap credit and cheap oil prices and food is over because of the global market demand.
April 20, 2008 at 12:26 am
jack snyder
Would you recommend the Fed not do its job and let our financial markets collapse? The central bank moved in series of decisive actions going back to September. – Anderson
The Fed has failed in many ways because since the 1980’s it aided and abetted in the creation and production of the new economy of hedge funds, deritives and other creative investments as well as subprime lending.
April 20, 2008 at 1:25 pm
kavips
But one should note, it was Phil Gramm, today McCain’s top economic adviser, who sneaked the bill through Congress that removed securities from any government oversight.
Hence their collapse.
McCain has said “economics” are not his strong suit. We an see that by the choice of his chief economic officert.
April 22, 2008 at 12:46 am
jac snyder
You must remember that Bill Clinton signed both major bills that reformed the the banking and financial houses. Sure Gramm was the father of both of these laws but Uncle Bill was gawd. Clinton had the power of VETO.
The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999) and The Commodity Futures
Modernization Act (2000) were created by senator Phil Gramm (US
senator, GOP, Texas), passed by both houses of congress and signed
into law by president Bill Clinton.
Many critics now argue that the financial services deregulation is a
substantial cause of the current economic downturn such as the
subprime mortgage lending problem, stock fraud, stock back dating, the
looting of employee pensions and the creation of the Shadow Economy. Alan Greenspan, ranking business and government officials think both laws are good for the economy if they are not good for you and I and Bush II has no plans in reversing either of them nor Obama, Clinton or McCain.
April 22, 2008 at 2:00 pm
kavips
I am afraid that were I in Clinton’s shoes, I would have missed the implications of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, and would have signed it too.
Remember this was an omnibus bill, covering the entire yearly funding for much of the government, and this act was passed with no debate, this act was slipped in at 2am of the last day of session. No wonder it passed and was sent immediately by courier to the President for his signature, in a rush to fund the government.
Remember too, that with less than thirty days left, his attention, as well as ours, was focused on his final acts.
I would be curious to know at what point after he had left the presidency, he realized what he had signed.
From its language, we know this bill was written by lobbyists, Phil Gramm sneaked it through Congress, and buried it so deep no one would find it until it was too late.
Whereas Clinton, alas, signed it; the real blame will rest on Bush for keeping it after it finally came to light.
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