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I’ve commented on a lot of local blogs today. There is a common theme that needs pulled up for discussion.
Can we trust today’s polls?
Chart Courtesy of Michael Brogan, Political Forecaster(right click for full view)
I say no.
First, the numbers being given do not match the 80% support Obama has on the street.
Second, with today’s technology, it is rudely simplistic to assume that polls aren’t being tweaked. Even as simply as choosing who to call, That one factor can throw a poll off the deep end. And don’t think, you’re cookies don’t tell everyone how you vote…
Hmmm, who should we call to represent Delaware… kavips? … or Ms. Evans?… it is that easy.
Third. The average national poll consists of 700 people. That means 7 people can throw a percent; 4 people throw it, if you round up or down. And you tell me you can’t “randomly” find 4 more conservatives than progressives, or vice-versa?
Fourth. The polling organizations are companies that pay out dividends to someone. People buy stock; they want results. Obviously reporting that a race is over in August, does little to generate more polls. More polls equal more revenue. There is considerable pressure to keep a national race appearing closer, than it really is.
Fifth. Who checks the veracity of pollsters? No one. There is no watchdog exacting penalties over fake results. So how do we trust it is real? Exactly. We can’t…
That is enough. Polling is only believable if it fits in with the general scheme of things as we see it.. If 80% of the population is hopeful this recovery is real, and happy about YAY! JUST PAID UNDER $3.50 FOR A GALLON OF GAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, then any poll not showing Obama leading 80 to 20 is simply a fabrication of one’s imagination…..
And in local elections? Forget it. Ask your neighbor who their county commissioner is? Yep. Exactly.
Can you guess which company had the lowest tax percentage?
If you guessed Pepco Holdings, which own Delmarva Power, you guessed correctly… They paid a tax rate of -57.6% over a three year period. Pepco, the electricity utility that serves Washington, D.C. Pepco reported profits of $882 million in 2010, and negative taxes of $508 million — earning that negative tax rate of -57.6 percent.
That means unemployment, education, vital construction, and jobs, all got cut, to swell Pepco’s profits 57.6% higher than they would have been naturally.
In 2010, Verizon reported an annual profit of nearly $12 billion. The statutory federal corporate income tax rate is 35 percent, so theoretically, Verizon should have owed the IRS around $4.2 billlion. Instead, according to figures compiled by the Center for Tax Justice, the company actually boasted a negative tax liability of $703 million. Verizon ended up making even more money after it calculated its taxes.
That means unemployment, education, vital construction, and jobs, all got cut, to swell Verizon’s profits $703 million higher than they would have been naturally. (They then turned around and cut their workers pay and benefits, creating the strike that occurred during September).
Perhaps most famously, General Electric raked in $10.5 billion in profit in 2010, yet ended up reporting $4.7 billion worth of negative taxes…..
That means unemployment, education, vital construction, and jobs, all got cut, to swell General Electrics profits $4.7 billion higher than they would have been naturally.
Here is Eric Cantor’s Republican philosophy in a nutshell. And since he is Republican you might as well get back at him by blaming every Republican you see.. for it.
Americans must pay more themselves. More for insurance, more for pensions, more for health care, more for gas, more for electricity, more for water, more for state taxes, more for local taxes. They must do that while earning less. What used to come out of the $6.2 billion in corporate profits, is now coming out of the consumer.
This is EIC for billionaires. It is as if we said,.. we feel you didn’t make enough so we are giving you back money from those Americans who do pay taxes, so you can live within your means…..
This is why there are Occupy Demonstrations by hard working Americans in almost every city, county, and state across this union….
All America needs is to increase the taxes on the 1%…
That is all it will take to turn this nation into the America we’ve always dreamed of…
This was uttered in response to calls from Republicans that the call for a tax on millionaires was the initiation of class warfare.
It’s like Republicans shot their own children, and when the police came with guns drawn, started taunting them as murderers.
Republicans only, only, and only Republicans are guilty of class warfare.
This is not conjecture. There is proof……
Truth is, since Republicans came to power, the rich have done better… Better at the expense of the upper middle class, the middle class, the lower middle class, and those below the middle class.
Four classes of people have had their lives go from better to worst under Republican policies….
But, during the Clinton years… every class of people got better off, as each year under a democratic administration passed by….
The bottom layer was better off at each years end, than when that year first began.
The lower middle class was better off at each years end, than when that year first began.
The middle class was better off at each years end, than when that year first began.
The upper middle class was better off at each years end, than when that year first began.
And the upper crust, the upper class, the top group of people including millionaires, billionaires, and trillionaires, were all better off at each years end, than when that year first began.
There you have it. Proof that Republicans practiced class warfare; Proof that the Democrats don’t..
You can lie, cheat, scream, scold, squeal, rant, gnash your teeth, rent your clothing, prostrate yourself before your lover, and drink lots of beer. It still won’t change the math…
Americans do much better when taxes are higher on millionaires and on capital gains…. The higher the taxes, the better off are all…….
Always have; always will. Now is the time to push tax rates up to where they were in Ronald Reagan’s era. 50%. Republicans seemed to like the math… then….
You will soon be hearing the opposition flinging this number… blaming Obama for $3 million a minute being added to our deficit….
How does one respond to that? With the truth, of course…
Wow, That’s really good, especially when compared to the $20,203,057 a minute George W. Bush added to our deficit… Sure looks like we need more Democrats and fewer Republicans ….
(Remember the deficit was projected to be completely down to zero in the year 2008, had the Bush Tax Cuts never have been enacted……. ) Hence making him now responsible for the entire debt up to when Obama’s term began.
Eric Cantor was tipped off early that the firm of Standard and Poors was going to devalue the dollar, irregardless of whatever deal they came up with.
Prior to the devaluation of America’s Treasury bonds, Eric Cantor had sent a letter (how did he know…), warning the Tea Party Republicans that pressure to raise taxes would be ratcheted up by the upcoming Standard and Poor’s devaluation….
He was right… Thank goodness, after 12 years, with this devaluation, we are finally starting to hear a few of the common sense arguments on the main stream media, that illustrate for all… that raising taxes to “now” be our best economy grower.. .
If you read Standard and Poors correctly, their report implies that the Tea Parties line (the one about NOT raising taxes), IS the primary obstacle that prevents the fixing of America’s debt problems… By implication, that makes the election of Tea Party candidates, the sole reason our bonds were devalued. (On the other hand, according to the ratings agencies, Obama receives high marks for his part in trying to make a better life for all Americans.)
In a secret email, Eric Cantor says…..
“Over the next several months, there will be tremendous pressure on Congress to prove that S&P’s analysis of the inability of the political parties to bridge our differences is wrong. In short, there will be pressure to compromise on tax increases. We will be told that there is no other way forward. I respectfully disagree.” Eric Cantor
He knew well in advance…
“We have said from the beginning of the year, the new Republican Majority was elected to change the way Washington does business. We were not elected to raise taxes or take more money out of the pockets of hard working families and business people. People understand Washington can’t keep spending money that it doesn’t have. They want to see less government – not more taxes.
Back up: we were not elected to…. take more money out of the pockets of hard working families and business people……..
No one said anything about more taxes for the 99% on the bottom… At issue is how much to tax the 1% on the top…
Taxing the top 1% at a marginal rate of 40% and increasing capital gains taxes to a rate of 40%…… actually PUTS MORE MONEY BACK INTO THE POCKETS OF HARD WORKING FAMILIES AND THOSE BUSINESS PEOPLE RUNNING THE ESTABLISHMENTS THOSE FAMILIES CHOOSE TO PATRONIZE……..
So you see, Mr. Cantor.. Raising taxes on the top 1% is not a conflict of interest for you… You said so yourself….. We’ll support you in not raising taxes on the bottom 99%…
Raising taxes on just the top 1%, is good.. WHAM!!!!! It jump-starts the economy…. Whereas,….
Cutting taxes for the top 1%, is bad… We all know this is fact. You don’t need me to explain it; you know just from living through the past 12 years of the Bush Tax cuts… The last 12 years have made the Clinton Tax Hike Years in comparison, seem like the true Guilded Age..Gosh, it seems like so, so long ago, when everything was perfect.
The Bush Tax cuts, collapsed the economy…..
Tax Cuts kill jobs. Always have… always will….
(but what is really, truly, profoundly sad, is this exhortation from Eric Cantor) “When given the choice between bettering the American economy, and getting more Republicans in power, you better vote for getting more Republicans in power…Our new motto: F*ck the economy!”)
I’ve always been in favor of tax cuts… Probably anyone who’s seen the Carter years up close, and felt relief when the Californian took over, knows what I mean… Filling out tax forms used to be insane. The IRS reimbursing mileage costs up to 38 cents per mile when gas was under a dollar a gallon… People were buying houses for tax shelters, opening businesses to squash the amount of profit on their books, lavish meals and entertainment costs were allowed for the “cost of doing business..” All you had to do was save all your receipts for a year and even though you were slated to pay taxes out the gazoo, the allowances and deductions let you slide with hardly a paper cut of financial pain. And stories circulated that giant, multinational corporations like Dupont, got away with paying NO TAX on the millions they were making….
Those times were good… On the average middle class wage, a person could pay a car off in 3 years, pay off his house in 20, and have enough money to spend on living, without having to borrow a penny…..
To do that today, with expenses as high as they are, my calculations show the average wage would need to be around $85,000 a year… Of course a lot of families do that now… but with two people working….
So, how do we get corporate America, who by now is used to pinching out $45,000 a year, to suddenly pay ones true worth, $85,000 a year? Simple. We do it by doing just what we did before…. when that was the norm…
Let’s assume my name is Charlie Copeland. I own a print shop that prints things… I have five assistants, randomly named Donviti, Jason, Pandora, Cassandra, and Nancy. (Just came up on a random generator; no inference to reality is intended)
I the great and honorable Charlie Copeland pay each of them, (since I’m fair) $50,000 a year…. They do great work, and I respond with kindness. That wage is currently the average wage of Dover which is in the middle of the state, so therefore it is representative of wages from top to bottom…
That makes my payroll $250,000 a year….. Of course I pay a cut of Social Security and Medicare… amounting to an additional $3100 and $720 per each employee, so combined, my total payroll will be: $269,100…….
This was a soft year.. My sales were only $1,764,000… (despite my awards!) … My percentage outlayed to payroll is thereby $269,100 divided by $1,764,000 or close to…. 15%… … pretty darn good… :)
My other costs were roughly $540,000 allowing me to clear before taxes, $809,000….. And that’s because I do a good job. Most other printers are behind the curve of technology, and have a lot higher costs, associated with lower sales…
On a profit of $809,000 by the books, as a personal owner (not a corporation), I “should” pay the amount...$260,464….. in Federal Taxes and $55,000 in state of Delaware taxes… and since I’m located in Wilmington I also pay the 1.5% City Wage Tax of … $10,112….
My taxes before deductions would therefore come to a total of $325,576… if you extend this to what I made, … it comes out to $809,000 minus my taxes of $325,576…. and poof: I’m walking with $483,424 … Sheesh… That’s all? How’s a guy supposed to make a living?… So you see, it really pisses me off when Tom Sharpe hires a flunky at $120,000 to do nothing important except use up some of my money, which I’m otherwise gladly willing to pay, if it is going to something decent and important…
And you want to WHAT? RAISE MY TAXES?
Yes, Sir! We want to RAISE YOUR TAXES…..
And so my taxes get raised…. but you allow me to write off physical capital costs associated with expansion, if they justifiably create new jobs… If I expand my business, I can write off the costs of building…
The new tax rates are 40% for Federal, 7.5%for state, and Wilmington stays the same ate 1.5%… My Federal taxes become..$281,956 state taxes $59,118.and the city wage tax of $10,112…giving me a burden of….. $ 351,186 and leaving me with an after-tax amount prior to deductions of….$ 457.814…. I lost $25,610 to tax increases… Woe is me…
So in preparation for next year I pull out my calculator and start figuring…
What happens if I hire one more person? or maybe two? I won’t bore you with the details but if I did hire someone at $50,000…. with my income being depleted by their salary and payroll taxes, my income used for the tax tables would now be $755,180 for one employee, and .$701,380 for a 2nd additional employee of the two who I will name Al Mascitti and Rick Jensen, again names just randomly generated…
$457814, $435785, $401425…. That is the breakdown of how much each employee actually costs me when the Fed tax rate jumps 5%, the state tax rate climbs 0.55%, and the Wilmington tax is flat… As you can see, hiring one employee after diffusing through the complicated procedure, will only cost $22,029, and hiring an additional employee, costs me $34,360…. yet those two employees will each receive a salary of $50,000 as well as my paying the payroll taxes of $3820-…..
But it is still a loss… Boo, hoo, hoo, I’m calling Boehner and McDonnell… Before the tax cuts expired I was walking with $483,424… Now, thanks to Democrats and that astutely clever kavips guy bursting the Republican bubble, I’m walking with only $401, 425… a loss of $82,000…
But wait a minute… I just hired two people…. And I know that if person number one takes on a certain project, I could land a contract for $900,000 and that with person number 2, I could persuade one of Delaware’s largest business to hire me for another $900,000 contract… Of course I would get roughly 50% of that increase because of the taxes, but it is still much more than I would have made if taxes hadn’t been raised…
I hired because it was better to keep that money in my business, instead of giving it out to the Fed, the state, and Mayor Baker’s kingdom…
What was I going to do with that additional income before the tax cuts kicked in and threatened to take it away? Probably I would have Invested it in colored pieces of paper called stocks, where it would do not one bit of good to anyone but my broker…..
So you see, raising taxes will bring jobs… It will make the wealthier even wealthier… How do I know? Because that’s what the nineties were all about…. ..
Raising taxes makes good economic sense.
Today, May 6th, the Treasury will suspend the issuance of state and local government series of Treasury Securities.
This will probably come as a surprise to the Markell government and Treasurer Chip Flowers, as well as every other state and local government across this nation.
State and Local Government Securities (SLGS), are special Treasury securities issued to state and local municipalities to help them conform to tax rules that restrict the investment of proceeds from tax-free bonds. These bonds are used to fund a variety of expenditures; most importantly, the reinvestment in infrastructure..
Because the US Treasury is now very close to it’s debt ceiling, the Treasurer must take this action today. The larger costs of this action will be that it deprives state and local governments of a very important tool to manage their outstanding debt expense.
This action greatly impacts the future revenue available going into the budget being formulated in Dover at this moment. A higher debt expense must now be added if the State Treasury has to now go shopping among “for-profit” lenders to borrow the money required for daily expenses…..
Furthermore, if the Debt limit by May 16 is not lifted, the Treasury will upon proclamation of the Treasurer of a “Debt Issuance Suspension Period”, begin raiding the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Plan, to keep the government running.and suspending any new issuance of securities to fund that investment. The same will happen to the Federal Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan, and the investments supporting the Exchange Stabilization Fund….
Republicans will yawn and say “Screw Them” Currently it looks like they will not budge. If they play chicken and we do cross that point where we default…. what really happens?
We stop paying our Military their pay checks. If you are still owed a tax refund; you don’t get it. If you receive a Social Security check: it won’t come. Nor will your doctors get paid from any medicare funds supposedly headed their way to cover you past medical treatments. Smart physicians should start posting signs now: “no medicare patients; cash only.”
A default on the United States obligations, will sharply increase interest rates… Trying to sell your home now? Imagine trying to sell it with a full 5 more points on top! A default will flatten the stock market, causing the collapse of over 40% of America’s privately owned retirement savings… Gained your money back from the 08 crash? Well, you are about to lose it all over again.
Increasing the debt limit does not alter fiscal policy. That is done in Congress. Increasing the debt limit only allows those commitments already agreed to by that Congress, to be paid.
And no, members of the House of Representatives will still receive their checks, whether or not, the debt ceiling is or isn’t raised…..
You won’t; they will. That’s what happens when you vote Republican…….