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Not likely one would say today.  But, hear me out.  This session the corporate financial targets that got hit, all missed their revenue.  That means people did not spend as was planned, but some fat on the corporate skeleton could be cut to compensate.  That fat is not there for the next report…

The economy has taken a shock from $85 billion sequestered despite only $10 billion having been applied already.  The $75 billion cuts are coming.

Even though the US market is the only safe place to put ones money today, the rest of the world is as unsafe as ever.  Since there is no where else to go with one’s money if he US market dives,… panic will begin very quickly….

The possibility is rather good for a 30-50% correction in the US Stock market.  I would still stay out and remain in Treasuries if I were you….

So, you who have put your faith and service into the United States of America, who have sacrificed a lot for principle,  and enlisted or volunteered in the armed forces, are now,  about to get a 20% cut in pay?

  • How will your family live?
  • How will you pay your bills?
  • How long until the Sheriff puts your home up for auction?

And why it this?

Because Republicans don’t want billionaires to pay one more penny per dollar earned on all income OVER a million dollars……...

 

There is no other reason you are taking a 20% cut in pay for serving your nation in the most patriotic fashion….

You just got bumped by millionaires….  Thanks to the Republican Party of the United States of America……

So, how do you feel now?

 

 

By now, everyone knows the Republicans are the ones who created the sequester.  So let us look at what they did to us,here living  in  both the first state and second smallest state.

If sequestration were to take effect, some examples of the impacts on Delaware this year alone are:

Teachers and Schools Delaware will lose approximately $1.4 million in funding for primary and secondary education, putting around 20 teacher and aide jobs at risk. In addition about 2,000 fewer students would be served and approximately 4 fewer schools would receive funding.

Education for Children with Disabilities: In addition, Delaware will lose approximately $1.8 million in funds for about 20 teachers, aides, and staff who help children with disabilities.

Work-Study Jobs:Around 150 fewer low income students in Delaware would receive aid to help them finance the costs of college and around 50 fewer students will get work-study jobs that help them pay for college.

Head Start: Head Start and Early Head Start services would be eliminated for approximately 100 children in Delaware, reducing access to critical early education.

Protections for Clean Air and Clean Water Delaware would lose about $1.1 million in environmental funding to ensure clean water and air quality, as well as prevent pollution from pesticides and hazardous waste. In addition, Delaware would lose another $359,000 in grants for fish and wildlife protection.

Military Readiness:In Delaware, approximately 2,000 civilian Department of Defense employees would be furloughed, reducing gross pay by around $7.6 million in total.  Army: Base operation funding would be cut by about $0.6 million in Delaware.  Air Force: Funding for Air Force operations in Delaware would be cut by about $1 million.

Law Enforcement and Public Safety Funds for Crime Prevention and Prosecution: Delaware
will lose about $83,000 in Justice Assistance Grants that support law enforcement, prosecution and courts, crime prevention and education, corrections and community corrections, drug treatment and enforcement, and crime victim and witness initiatives.

Job Search Assistance to Help those in Delaware find Employment and Training: Delaware
will lose about $86,000 in funding for job search assistance, referral, and placement, meaning around 3,230 fewer people will get the help and skills they need to find employment.

Child Care:Up to 100 disadvantaged and vulnerable children could lose access to child care, which is also essential for working parents to hold down a job.

Vaccines for Children: In Delaware around 380 fewer children will receive vaccines for diseases such as measles, mumps, rubella, tetanus, whooping cough, influenza, and Hepatitis B due to reduced funding for vaccinations of about $26,000.

 Public Health Delaware will lose approximately $86,000 in funds to help upgrade its ability to respond to public health threats including infectious diseases, natural disasters, and biological, chemical, nuclear, and radiological events. In addition, Delaware will lose about $330,000 in grants to help prevent and treat substance abuse, resulting in around 400 fewer admissions to substance abuse programs. And the Delaware Division of Public Health will lose about $70,000 resulting in
around 1,800 fewer HIV tests.

STOP Violence Against Women Program Delaware could lose up to $19,000 in funds that provide services to victims of domestic violence, resulting in up to 100 fewer victims being served.

Nutrition Assistance for Seniors: Delaware would lose approximately $201,000 in funds that provide meals for seniors.

Delaware loses 15.1 million at least in funding forever if the sequester goes through….

Not only is that money lost, but the ripple effect impounds and deepens that loss.  With every loss of a government job, there is a loss of a .67 of a private sector job….  The predicted loss or 700,000 jobs in March will be accompanied by 469,000 in the private sector….

Roughly Republicans driving us over the cliff, will put another 1.2 million Americans out of work…. again…..

And if you read Republican blogs like this one, they are laughing and laughing at how bad they are going to hurt America, how they are going to teach us all a lesson because we didn’t vote for their billionaire president…..   They are smirking over the hardship and suffering everyone else will be living…

This erupted on a right wing blog here in Delaware and for future historians who may wonder how Republicans collectively lost their minds, I preserved it right here….

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“Excuse me. Federal spending in 2008 was $2.9 trillion.

For 2011 it was $3.8 trillion.

For 2012 it was $3.7 trillion…..

Even if we cut $85 billion that still leave $700 billion we are over spending!!! “

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Of course, it certainly makes a difference in what is being overspent and what therefore needs to be cut.

In 2008, our defense budget was $671 billion. (Includes $190 billion for two wars not listed in budget but funded outside by appropriations).  This year it is $670 billion, including the two wars.. In 4 years there has been some creep downward of $1 billion.

Back in 2008, our non military discretionary budget was… $488 billion    Today it is  $615 billion.   The breakdown is below.

2008 –——-(+ or – 2007)—–  Cabinet Department——-(2013 budget)

$69.3 billion (+0.3%) – Department of Health and Human Services  ($81)
$56.0 billion (+0.0%) – Department of Education  ($68)
$39.4 billion (+18.7%) – Department of Veterans Affairs  ($60)
$35.2 billion (+1.4%) – Department of HUD  ($41)
$35.0 billion (+22.0%) – Department of State and Other International Programs  ($56)
$34.3 billion (+7.2%) – Department of Homeland Security  ($55)
$24.3 billion (+6.6%) – Department of Energy ($36)
$20.2 billion (+4.1%) – Department of Justice ($24)
$20.2 billion (+3.1%) – Department of Agriculture ($27)
$17.3 billion (+6.8%) – NASA  ($18)
$12.1 billion (+13.1%) – Department of Transportation ($24)
$12.1 billion (+6.1%) – Department of the Treasury ($14)
$10.6 billion (+2.9%) – Department of the Interior ($12)
$10.6 billion (-9.4%) – Department of Labor($13)
$51.8 billion (+9.7%) – Other On-budget Discretionary Spending ($53)
$39.0 billion – Other Off-budget Discretionary Spending  ($31)

A four year creep of $127 billion.

And we are proposing to cut $85 billion of that per year….  how much is 85 billion?  Well if you parked 85 billion cars, bumper to bumper, it would stretch to the sun and back, and back again as far as Mercury….

Imagine that huge amount instantly disappearing from our economy?

That is a pretty big worry.

Now we know where $100 billion of that $700 billion difference  came from.  Granted, it costs more to run our government now.  We have tighter security in our airports than we did in 2008.  We have tighter border security than we did in 2008.  We have a lot more people on food stamps than we did in 2008.  We have a lot more baby boomers retired or retiring… than we did in 2008…. We pay more in servicing our debt, than we did in 2008….

None of these can be cut.  Therefore we must cut out of our military.  We must cut out of our non military discretionary services…

Republicans have underestimated how painful these will be.  CBO says 700,000 jobs will be lost.  Regional pockets of unemployment could cross 40%.. Northern Virginia and Bethesda Maryland, will be very hard hit.  For when government workers get laid off, it is a  little different than if one closes a plant that makes widgets for the Chinese.  People in government facilitate other peoples lives.

Our food is safe, because of government.  Our planes are safe, because of government.  Our roads are safe because of government.  Our schools are safe, because of government.  Our neighborhoods are safe, because of government.  Our health is safe, because of government.  Our retirement is safe, because of government….

After March 1st, that safety provided by the government disappears….  the safety net has developed holes all through it…

Now when flying on the trapeze  through private sector jobs, flitting from one to another,  one must add the worry that if one misses his timely catching of the next bar,  he may just fall through one of the many gaping holes scattered across that net so far below….

The Dow Jones fell 216 points or 1.6%.

Because of no new news on any movement by the Republicans in regards to the sequester.

Just a reminder.  The best time was last week, but you can still get value out of your investments if you sell high tomorrow.

The market will jump on rumors out of Washington the next few days, both up and down.  You can track it.  The smart money has already quietly pulled out.  The dumb money is propping up values until the sequester  goes into effect.

There is a possibility you may have missed my two previous arguments for getting out of the market completely.  This will be the last one.

I just laid down a stinging rebuke over at Delaware Politics of the Right’s assertion that Obama caused the Sequester. The aim of their article was to blame President Obama for coming up with the sequester about to floor us on March 1st.. Nothing could be further from the truth… For in negotiations, it is not who comes up with an idea that matters, but who provides that idea with enough support, that it becomes so.

It appears that the sequester idea when it first appeared was nothing more than a leaf falling off a tree.

The sequester began in the budget crises of 2011. Here are the facts.

  • For the first time in history, the Tea Party forces Republicans to put limitations upon the raising of the debt ceiling.
  • On May 16 the US goes into technical default, but weaseling can extend the money until August 1.
  • April 2011: Obama says debt limit must not be tied to any other deals.
  • May 11th; Obama’s chief economic advisor writes that hobbling the debt limit would be “insane”.
  • May 31st; 2011; Obama’s request for a clean debt limit is voted down in the House; All 236 Republicans vote no.
  • Up thru August, Republicans were screaming “it’s gotta’ have catastrophic budget cuts” and Obama said “no”.
  • Republicans caused Standard and Poors to collapse our rating. Republicans insisted they didn’t care and would still default.
  • The White House asked:  if we could “guarantee that cuts would occur in the future” would Republicans climb on board?
  • They said” yes”; as long as it was solid law that the sequestration would eventually take effect, they would raise the ceiling
  • Finally, when the Budget Control Act was passed, it was the Republicans who passed it. 218 voted yes for sequestration. It could not have passed without their support.

Bottom line, no matter who brought up the idea or where it came from, if Republicans had acted rational at any point along the way, we would not be on the edge of losing 700,000 jobs this March, 2013.

John Boehnor, and Delaware Politics spent much time saying that Obama is the author of sequestration….

Red State Politics disagrees….

Here is their quote…

“Republicans act as if the sequester is a natural disaster. They make no mention of the fact that they caused it and voted for it knowing that the sequester would take effect.... So why did they vote for it? None of them ever connect the dots and apologize for voting for it. The reality is that John Boehner said that he got 98% of what he wanted from the deal…..”

There you have it. If Red State proudly stands up and takes credit for engineering and forcing the sequester to tighten the vice grips upon the American economy,  I certainly not going to stand in their way.

For Delaware Politics to go against Red State, and point their finger at Obama as originator of the “sequester”, can only show Delaware Politics doesn’t have the balls to be anything close to a real Conservative…   They are Faux Conservatives at their best…  or Ostrich Conservatives the rest of times, when they are not even close to being at their best.

Despite any words otherwise,  Republicans own this sequester; good or bad.

Everyone who has followed me knows  I’m always right on the market.   I’m not putting up links but you can go back through the archives and verify all you want.

If you have a mutual fund that allows you to switch from stocks to secured investments like Treasury’s, put the order in now. The smart money is starting to pull out now and the stocks will start dropping and keep falling as long as the switching continues….

Here is the reason….

Mitch McConnell…. “It’s pretty clear to me that the sequester is going to go into effect…Read my lips: I’m not interested in an 11th-hour negotiation.”

The most liberal estimate shows that when the sequester goes into effect the GDP will lose  .5% over the course of the year.  This first Quarter will be positive which means the next three quarters will be in negative territory.

The exact same thing occurred in 1937.   It is usually lumped in by history as a continuation of the Great Depression but two quarters of 1936 looked like our two quarters just after the election this time…  As 1937 opened, just as 2013 opened, prospects were rosy that the worst was behind us. Unemployment had dropped from 25% to 14% with manufacturing  output rising to its 1929 levels, and then, …. with budget cutbacks  to reign in spending, very similar to sequestration today, unemployment shot back up to 19%…. If the same trend holds, our unemployment should rise to 9% again before it stabilizes and then fall slowly, ever so slowly, back to 7% it is today, quite possibly as late as 2016.

Manufacturing then cut back 37% returning work output to 1934 levels.

Finally on April 2,  1938  Roosevelt sent a new large-scale spending program to Congress, and received $3.75 billion which was split among PWA, WPA, and various relief agencies.   Other appropriations raised the total to $5 billion in the spring of 1938, after which the economy recovered.

Unemployment never recovered its 1936 level until the US went into WWII….

The Stock Market which had climbed back to its 1929 high as of  February of 1937,  lost 50% of its value by February 1938…..

Put bluntly, with sequestration, there is zero chance stocks will rise, and a 99% chance they will fall.  Doesn’t it make sense to sell out now, and put that money into the safe keeping of Treasury Bonds?

The Republicans seem jubilent they are causing it this collapse.  I guess afterwards there will be no question in any reporters or any American’s mind, that Democrats and  Keynes were always right, and Republicans and Milton Friedman were always dead wrong.

If you don’t do what I said,  and get out now,  don’t come crying to me… You were warned!

We’re going somewhere with this.

Republicans legislators in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida have put forth bills to take urine from welfare recipients to test for drugs.

Seriously.  Some well known Republicans brag among themselves that they even want to hold the cup….

Ohio had this bill squashed last spring by their Governor.  It is back again in the form of a three county trial.

Virginia,  tried passing it last year but it was shelved because it would cost the state $1.2 million to implement while saving $ 229,000….

Florida did pass it and too, found out that so few tested positive, that the cost of the testing far outweighed any savings.  Plus, they are still being assessed for legal fees from the action being declared unconstitutional.

One would think Republicans would remember what doesn’t work.  But no.. Now Kansas and Ohio and Virginia have new legislation to redo the same problem….

I’m just curious,…. with only paltry savings on the indigent, why wasn’t this procedure proscribed when we lent big banks  an open line of credit to put themselves back on their feet?

Did we make AIG pee in a cup?  Did we make Bank of  America pee in a cup? Did we make Citibank pee in a cup? And why not?

I wonder how much cocaine those $4o million in bonuses bought?  Poor people don’t do coke.  They don’t have that kind of money.

Just imagine if testing positive could have save us $440 billion?

Since Democrats don’t legislate pee, it can only mean Republican do other things like fantasize  with pee when they are behind closed doors.  For if you didn’t love pee so much…. ugh, why would you even bring it up?

A. Too many volatile variables to predict exactly how long $200 billion in stopgap will last…..

B. Tax forms and 2013 Tax laws are in limbo, paralyzing the financial acquiring process, so that all projections for the next 5 years are now thrown off.

C. The crash of the world’s financial markets triggered by a downgrading this second time, could create a massive depression possibly four times worse than the crash of 2008. For one, the US Treasury being broke, is powerless to intervene. Treasury interference is credited with stopping the collapse last time.

There are four extra-ordinary means that will be used to borrow $200 billion.

One. Borrow out of the federal employee’s pension fund.

Two. Suspend the G-Fund. The G fund is part of the federal employees’ retirement system thrift savings plan. This provides $155 billion out of the $200 billion available.

Three. The Treasury will also temporarily stop issuing state and local government securities… shutting most of the emergency income state and local governments have.

Four. The Treasury will stop contributing to the exchange stabilization fund, which it uses to buy foreign currencies to keep the American Dollar stable.

These monies will have to be paid back if and when the Tea Party Republicans cave in an allow taxes to go up on the wealthy.

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