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Although the year is barely out, we do have our first nomination for the spot to be announced in December 2013.  With the Kinder Morgan Deal now on hold semi-permanently, even they are pointing to our hero of the year as the man most responsible for allowing the port to remain state owned….

I can say it was Julius Cephas who was behind almost every move to combat the loss of good jobs at our port.  He is being pointed out as the villain by the capitalists at Kinder Morgan.  In Delaware’s eyes, that elevates his hero’s stature even more…

In truth, he is no villain and knowing him, he will probably shun the acclimations being made by us common folk as being our hero.  In his eyes, he was just doing what needed to be done because no one else was there at that very moment to do it, and as that task swelled, it took a lot out of him….

Capitalists always need a villian.  But it was the “truth” which actually is what killed this deal.  Kinder Morgan WAS going to cut back on jobs, and their change of heart and blaming Julius instead of others, points exactly to the core of their problem with our port… …

People in Texas, do not understand unions.  They simply can’t fathom or understand how there can be an actual law that lets people strike and shut you down, whenever you try to pay them less..  In their eyes, you work for what they want to give you and if it is too little, ..humph.  go elsewhere….

The second culprit (after the “truth”),  was our office of economic development.  We gave Kinder Morgan too many “eager” signals that set us up as being seen as an easy pick.  They truly thought they could waltz in, pick up a top notch East Coast Port for a song, and we would eagerly give it up…  Again, that was because everything was done in secret.  Had a meeting been forthcoming in the very beginning,  Kinder Morgan might have moved on earlier when it became readily apparent, that southern Texas practices do not bode well in the Northeast…

Of course, being a corporation, they will blame the whistle blower.  (Ironic since the whistle blower of Enron works for them)..   Of course.  It is not like they find anything immoral in taking a state asset for a song, in firing those skilled dock workers, and replace them with some Spanish speaking Texans who never even heard of a union….

And Julius did blow that whistle. .  Like Rose on the Titanic, he took the whistle off of Jack (pun intended), and blew softly at first, then harder, and harder.   Gradually the sound registered on others ears….

Without Julius, Bob Marshall would not have pushed through Senate Bill 3.  Without Julius, most of the links showing up in everyone’s blog, would have not been found.  Without Julius, the case for protecting workers would not have even made the rounds of the Norman Oliver show….

There were many helpers. Bob Marshall, Nancy Willing, Norman Oliver, Norinda, Helene Keeley, Al Mascitti, Liz Allen, John Kowalko, and (an other blogger too shy to be mentioned here). When one looks back through all of them one sees from everywhere, there in the center of the universe,  stands a normal human being just like us, known to most … as Julius.

There will come a time when a better deal will arrive.  Could even be this year. There will come a time when a suitor who does care about Delaware, who does care about unions, about human beings, about those businesses on the outside, and who will want to upgrade the port for everyone’s interest, not just their own… And that suitor in this day and age, could even come from abroad.  Germany is very committed to union labor, to the environment, to being a good neighbor…. There are a great many possibilities out there that are immeasurable…. We definitely dodged a Texas bullet with this one….

When that suitor arrives… Julius’s stature will be set in cement….  For he did nothing really Herculean, except argue the truth…  He didn’t lie.  He didn’t connive,  He didn’t threaten….

That was done by our office of economic development.  Instead and unlike them, Julius told the truth.  He told the truth to anyone who would listen.  He told the truth enough, so many “did” listen….

And that is why, he  deserves this nomination as Delaware’s Man of the Year.  I know it is early into 2013, but great things just do not wait!!….

You will hear smears that Julius tubed the deal… I saw the letter and it is already out on WDEL and the Delawareonline’s News Journal… But as an impartial blogger, I can tell you exactly what killed this deal.

It was “the truth”.  The truth of what this deal would cost us Delawareans….. is what turned the tide and caused the outcry that rose up against it….

If Kinder Morgan really wanted this deal, they could have easily said… “we are expanding and putting 5 new berths out into the river.  We are buying the port for the bargain price of $5 billion.   We need those businesses outside the fence because the jobs we get, will soon be too big, we can’t do it ourselves.  We will keep the union just as it is;  Wilmington needs good jobs and we are going to do our part….  We are also going to contribute into an emergency fund to be used for any spill or environmental accident that takes place under our tenure….

Kinder Morgan could have done any of those things, … and didn’t…. The blame doesn’t lie with Julius after all…. Especially when you consider the following…

This Economic Council erred on Fisker Automotive.  Then it erred on Bloom Energy.  Then it tried to Kinder Morgan us out of our port…..   Someone rushed in  with a save to make sure that last one didn’t happen.

That person is now hereby nominated for Delaware’s Person of the Year…….


Courtesy of Wikipedia

There are no universal rules about how long the life of a concession should be. Economic theory on regulation indicates that the longer the life-span, the more incentives the private concessionaire has to make adequate investments to enhance the assets, since profitability will be dependent on the state of the facilities.

However, the longer the period between two concessions, the less information the regulator may have on cost and demand conditions. Therefore, there is a trade-off between incentives and information for regulating a concessionaire optimally…..

50 years is a long time.   Most people over 50, won’t see the end of the lease.  Only 6% of those now between 40 and 50 years old, will be around go see it revert back to the state.   An egg, fertilized tonight, will be moving around as a 50 year old when this port lease expires…..

Can a lot change in 50 years?   Let’s look back… 50 years ago was 1963… Let that sink in….  If our ancestors had leased the port in 1963, while John F. Kennedy was president, while Lyndon Baines Johnson was Vice President, while Robert Kennedy was Attorney General, it would still be in the lessor’s control….  What would it be?   Would it have grown as it did as as public entity?   Kinder Morgan is an energy company…  How many of these are still around?   Amoco, Getty, Esso, Sinclair, Atlantic, Texaco, Gulf, Pure, Phillips 66, ….

A quick reminder of our local refinery may drive home the point.   Originally Delaware City refinery was started in 1956 and as of 1963 was owned by Getty… In these 50 years past, it has gone through a progression of Texaco, Star Enterprises, Motiva, Premcor, Valero, and after a brief shut down, it is now run by PBF Enterprises…  I wonder how many of the original promises that Getty made to get approval and the refinery built, are still edified in the practices of the current owner?

Kinder Morgan says it has no plans for Liquid Natural Gas…  but, what about its third owner, its fourth, its fifth?   The only thing constant is change….  When people tell me Kinder Morgan is going to be around a long time,  I tell them that early last year, El Paso Gas was saying exactly the same thing….

Bottom line, none of us would lease our house out for 50 years locked at today’s low rent prices, yet that is what we are doing with Kinder Morgan.  We are giving them a cut throat bottom rate for 50 years with no  renegotiations….. And speaking strictly for myself, if I were Kinder Morgan, … those last 15 years I would put as few pennies as I could into my investment, knowing full well, I’d soon just be turning it over to the state in 2064…

Which means, that after the end of 50 years the State receives an beat down, unmarketable entity, and not the same shining port we are giving up today:  the number two largest fruit port of the entire world…..

So, what do other ports lease for?

http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/64583/2181seaport.pdf

As one can see, only one port is leased out for 50 years:  La Harve in  France. The average lease on the chart above, is 23.3 years. Furthermore, in such agreements it is very common to have penalties and fines to guarantee adequate compliance with the terms of a concession agreement… Concession contracts have long lives, and therefore it is important that port authorities are able to establish strong positions from the start of the concession, and be allowed to perform regular inspections to verify assets are being kept in top condition. The potential threat of fines must be written into the contract to ensure compliance.

It is because concession contracts have long lives that it is important the port authorities are able to establish strong positions from the start of the concession. Re-negotiation of a concession contract is probably the rule and not the exception, and should not be perceived as a failure. Since concession contracts are typically long-life documents, it is impossible that at the moment of drafting the contract the parties can foresee all possible future contingencies….

Bottom line, the excessive length of this contract for this small port is odd, and is definitely laid out in the favor of the renter, who in this case will be Kinder Morgan.  At this point, without balance embedded deep within the contract, we are really doing nothing more than selling our first born daughter to the very first man who comes along….

There are thousands of reasons why this union is a bad idea. Some are classified under categories of labor, some under categories of environment, and some under categories of finance. But as much as the Governor’s office is infatuated with this union, when it comes down to it, we are really nothing more than a cocktail waitress who happens to catch George Clooney’s eye at one of many events,and become infatuated with the prospects.

Bottom line, Kinder Morgan bought El Pass Oil for $36 billion. If the Delaware Port deal goes through, they will pay $18 million up front and then a little under $3 million a year after that….

The first purchase was a private company. The second is our public entity. We are being propositioned to give up one of our most prized possessions, for something amounting to only five hundredths of one percent, of what our proposer, just gave another suitor….

All of us would silently scream “NOOOOOOOOO” if cinematically forced to watch a young girl willingly give up her virginity to a famous actor she happens to meet at his own bachelor party….

We can’t sit silently and let Delaware do the same.

Fix the Deficit Yourself With This Handy Dandy Deficit Fixer Upper
Courtesy of New York Times

Here is the sight where you can fix the deficit yourself... Let me know how long it took and what you found to be your biggest surprise?

Indirect link:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/11/13/weekinreview/deficits-graphic.html?choices=012vn5qj

The standard mantra of any insurance company is to “deny, deny, deny. They can always appeal.”

When taxes are too low, there is great incentive on not paying claims, but instead, keeping that money as profit.

You, the claimant probably pay $300 dollars per month for your medical insurance. Your company probably also pays $300 a month for your medical insurance. (Unless your were grandfathered and now have your employer paying the full $600 per month of your contribution).

$600 a month equals $7200 a year.

Your deductible is probably $2000… meaning you have to spend the first $2000 out of pocket before the insurance kicks in… On that $7200 let’s assume the insurance company probably pays 15% in total taxes, meaning that it keeps $6480 to itself.

If tax rates return to 50% as they were during Ronald Reagan’s term…. The insurance company nets $3600 to itself.

Some may cry (boo, hoo, hoo) that higher taxes cost the insurance company $2880… They will raise their rates….

Probably not. Because a wiser insurance competitor will steal you away without costing you more money.

What will most likely happen, is that the insurance company will approve more claims. If the insurance company by lowering or removing its deductible for example, pays out $2000 more in benefits to its recipients, then of that $7200 it took from you, it will make in after tax (50%)profit , … $2600… or a thousand less than if no claims were processed…

But wait.. They paid out $2000 dollars, but the bottom line cost to them, was only $1000?

Exactly. Which is where high taxes on profits, helps you and me and the rest of the middle class… Why risk losing a paying subscriber by denying his claim, when that denial is only going to the Federal government anyway?

“Aww, go ahead, approve it”, the supervisor chimes.

Now you probably can’t use that $2000 coming back to you from what used to be medical expenses, for anything else in your budget, but I sure could…

It’s about time that all America realizes they were guilty of one gigantic scam these past thirty years… All this crying about no higher taxes…

It has reached the silliness of Republicans parading around naked, (not just showing their body parts on Twitter). Each and every Republican pledged that a 10:1… cuts/tax increase ratio was too high of a tax hike…

Which means, they don’t want that $2000 dollars in paid benefits to hit your pocket. They’d rather you pay your $2000 on top of the $7200 your insurance costs you…..

Higher taxes on corporate profits and on investors, solve a lot of the middle classes problems.

Eric Cantor was tipped off early that the firm of Standard and Poors was going to devalue the dollar, irregardless of whatever deal they came up with.

Prior to the devaluation of America’s Treasury bonds, Eric Cantor had sent a letter (how did he know…), warning the Tea Party Republicans that pressure to raise taxes would be ratcheted up by the upcoming Standard and Poor’s devaluation….

He was right… Thank goodness, after 12 years, with this devaluation, we are finally starting to hear a few of the common sense arguments on the main stream media, that illustrate for all… that raising taxes to “now” be our best economy grower.. .

If you read Standard and Poors correctly, their report implies that the Tea Parties line (the one about NOT raising taxes), IS the primary obstacle that prevents the fixing of America’s debt problems… By implication, that makes the election of Tea Party candidates, the sole reason our bonds were devalued. (On the other hand, according to the ratings agencies, Obama receives high marks for his part in trying to make a better life for all Americans.)

In a secret email, Eric Cantor says…..

“Over the next several months, there will be tremendous pressure on Congress to prove that S&P’s analysis of the inability of the political parties to bridge our differences is wrong. In short, there will be pressure to compromise on tax increases. We will be told that there is no other way forward. I respectfully disagree.” Eric Cantor

He knew well in advance…

He continues….

“We have said from the beginning of the year, the new Republican Majority was elected to change the way Washington does business. We were not elected to raise taxes or take more money out of the pockets of hard working families and business people. People understand Washington can’t keep spending money that it doesn’t have. They want to see less government – not more taxes.

Back up: we were not elected to…. take more money out of the pockets of hard working families and business people……..

No one said anything about more taxes for the 99% on the bottom… At issue is how much to tax the 1% on the top…

Taxing the top 1% at a marginal rate of 40% and increasing capital gains taxes to a rate of 40%…… actually PUTS MORE MONEY BACK INTO THE POCKETS OF HARD WORKING FAMILIES AND THOSE BUSINESS PEOPLE RUNNING THE ESTABLISHMENTS THOSE FAMILIES CHOOSE TO PATRONIZE……..

So you see, Mr. Cantor.. Raising taxes on the top 1% is not a conflict of interest for you… You said so yourself….. We’ll support you in not raising taxes on the bottom 99%…

Raising taxes on just the top 1%, is good.. WHAM!!!!! It jump-starts the economy…. Whereas,….

Cutting taxes for the top 1%, is bad… We all know this is fact. You don’t need me to explain it; you know just from living through the past 12 years of the Bush Tax cuts… The last 12 years have made the Clinton Tax Hike Years in comparison, seem like the true Guilded Age..Gosh, it seems like so, so long ago, when everything was perfect.

The Bush Tax cuts, collapsed the economy…..

Tax Cuts kill jobs. Always have… always will….

(but what is really, truly, profoundly sad, is this exhortation from Eric Cantor) “When given the choice between bettering the American economy, and getting more Republicans in power, you better vote for getting more Republicans in power…Our new motto: F*ck the economy!”)

Definition: Where American spending was brought up to the level where it should be, without the necessary revenue to support it.

(As evidenced by 154,000 private sector jobs being created in July.)

The problem is not with spending. The problem is the lack of taxing of the top 1%. The spending seems to be doing its job.

There are two choices before us:

One, we tax the top 1% and live the quality of life we deserve…..

Two, we continue the tax cuts, allowing the top 1% to not pay their fair share in taxes, and continue the quality of life we’ve suffered since 2001..

Simple microcosmic view: find a pothole in today’s state road system… You can’t, it’s covered up with stimulus funded new pavement… Nice, crisp, sharply painted blacktop, as far as the eye can see….

Compare that to the Bush Era… Potholes galore and getting them fixed was like pulling teeth…

Now pull back and look at your entire lifestyle with all it’s moving parts…. first see one where everything outside your control is operating smoothly like clockwork ( a Visa commercial comes to mind), and the other where it is all cacophonous and catastrophic…..

So, in which type of lifestyle do you prefer to live?

Decide and vote.

It has always been a dream of mine, ever since Gingrich destroyed the camaraderie of Congress with his bombastic attacks, that one day, both sides would give the press a collective F*ck You and begin to work together……..

The press instigates many of the adversarial relationships… Framing questions, reporting sound bytes without mentioning the context in which they were uttered.

So, as you know, the two principal players were Eric Cantor, and President Obama. Obama’s role was mostly filled by Delaware’s own Joe Biden…. affectionately known in here, as Seabiscuit.

Personal relationships are how things happen. That doesn’t make good copy, so the press tries to find differences and drive wedges in to split them further…..

On would be shocked, shocked to hear something like this went on….

“I think the success of these talks thus far is due to the vice president and the way he has conducted the meetings,” Cantor explained.

“it’s been a great, pleasant surprise” to work with Cantor. “The guy’s as smart as hell,” Biden said, adding that Cantor has “been totally, completely straightforward and sincere.”

(Btw, just how smart is hell? On Google, I can find no reference!)

Elsewhere in the House majority leader’s comments on deficit-reduction talks he praised to the Times-Dispatch, the panel led by Vice President Delaware’s Joe Biden.

The commission had identified a possible $1 trillion in cuts. Cantor cited the seriousness of the endeavor and the civility of the tone mentioning “this is how the political realm ought to function”.

Remember Dick Cheney?

I’m printing this article in full: tell me, where in America can you find journalism this “fair and balanced”?

Another crisis in the horizon?

A | A | A |
Winarno Zain, Jakarta | Tue, 07/19/2011 7:00 AM A | A | A |

It seems the world economy has faced endless threats preventing it from sailing smoothly into a strong recovery this year.

First there was the Greek debt crisis that jolted several major banks, and then a political uprising in the Middle East that pushed up oil prices, and then a tsunami in Japan that disrupted manufacturing activities in many countries.

The world economy has not fully dusted off the adverse impacts of these three events. Yet another headwind is looming large on the horizon. This time it is the possible default of the US government of its debt on Aug. 2, if the US Congress fails to approve an increase to its debt ceiling as requested by President Barack Obama. By that date, the US government debt would have reached its maximum allocated limit of US$14.3 trillion.

The current negotiation between representatives of Democratic and Republican parties on the US budget deficit has run into a deadlock, and so the possibility is real that there won’t be any substantial agreements reached, since the dateline is nearing. Major rating agencies such as Standard and Poor, and Moody’s have warned they are ready to downgrade the US government debt rating from top grade AAA.

This would be the first time in 90 years that the US government debt has been downgraded.

It is not hard to imagine what will happen if by Aug. 2 the US government has exhausted its credit ceiling and can not get additional debt to pay for its spending needs.

The US government would have to curb its spending, and because some of these relate to payments to government employees, pensioners and other social benefits, this would strike a severe blow to the consumer spending that is so essential to the US economic recovery.

With debt default and credit rating downgrades, it would be difficult for the US government to get loans. Faced with increasing risk, investors would ask for higher returns for US government bonds. This would push interest rate higher, further depressing the economic recovery.

The US dollar would plunge, triggering a surge in commodity prices and another round of inflation around the world. A deadly combination of inflation and economic stagnation could spin the world economy into a tailspin as happened in the early 1970’s.

How would this worst case scenario affect the Indonesian economy? As capital flows out of the US, investors have tended to seek safe havens elsewhere. Commodities, especially gold and oil, would be their first targets. Emerging markets could be the next destination of this capital flight, depending on the assessment of investors on the strength of its economy and their vulnerability and exposure to the US economic fallout.

But financial crises always result in a loss of confidence and produce negative sentiments in the financial markets. They put financial markets into disarray, and as investors panic, capital starts flowing out of emerging economies.

During the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, capital moved out from emerging economies back to the advanced economies. At that time, the US government bonds and commodities like gold were considered safe havens.

If the US government defaults on its debt payment this time, the question is will the situation change? Will the US government bonds still be considered a safe haven for investors? If not, then where else will they put their money? Or maybe they would prefer to keep their money in the same place and not move it anywhere. If so, the Indonesian economy could get some benefit and may not have to face another shock.

In the longer term, however, the situation may change. No country is immune to the negative ripples of a US economic crisis. As US imports plunge from weakening domestic demand, exports from emerging countries will also suffer. The extent to which these negative impacts affect each country will depend on their trading and banking exposure to the US economy.

What is disturbing about this debt talk is the use of this debate as a political game. This is especially apparent in the Republican stance.

Economist, market analyst and CEOs of financial institutions and even the IMF itself have warned that if Congress fails to raise the ceiling of the US government debt, the world economy would slip into deep recession.

The Republicans did not fully accept Obama’s proposal to raise the debt ceiling. They only agree on a smaller number, but even it was given with some conditions. The Republicans asked Obama not to raise taxes, especially for the wealthy, and Obama should cut social spending, a sacred cow for the Democrats.

By using tit for tat tactics in the negotiation and by seemingly ignoring the impending consequences and dangers, the Republicans were trying to push Obama into an intricate political dilemma.

If the US economy slip into another crisis, economic contraction would be inevitable. Corporate bankruptcies would spread, and jobless rate would surge.

A presidential election is still slightly more than one year away, and Obama’s reelection prospects are solid. But his popularity rating is highly dependent on the unemployment rate. That is why the Republicans think the only way for them to erode Obama’s popularity now is by pushing the US economy into crisis.

As the stakes are high, the two political parties should temporarily set aside their ideologies and adopt a pragmatic stance for the interests of saving the world economy from another catastrophe.

President Obama demonstrated his willingness to compromise his political ideology during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Being a Democrat, Obama’s political inclination is generally anti-big business.

Obama realized that it was reckless lending by some big banks on Wall Street that triggered the financial crisis. But he also realized that saving these banks from bankruptcy was key to saving the world economy from further disaster.

His decision to pour $800 billion of taxpayer’s money to bail out these banks was hard to swallow by his fellow party members, but it worked. Now it is expected that the Republicans will be willing to do likewise.

The writer is an economist.

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