Photo Courtesy of David Wojnarowicz
Romney has vowed that if elected he will push the United States of America over the fiscal cliff. It is his medicine for everything. Just like letting Detroit go bankrupt.
There are three options after the election. (borrowed from Moody’s Analytics)
“In our “Cliff” scenario, which we believe has a 15% probability, policymakers
would decide to stick to the current law and let the nation go over the fiscal cliff. This would
cause real GDP to fall 2.8 percentage points below what it would be if current policies were
extended in 2013 and lead to a new recession, pushing unemployment up to 9.2% by year’s
In Moody’s Analytics “No Cliff” scenario, which has a 30% probability,
policymakers would avoid the fiscal cliff by extending current policy so that there would be
no changes to taxes and spending in 2013. While the U.S. economy would improve next
year, under this scenario…
Moody’s Analytics baseline scenario, which is the most likely scenario with a 55%
probability, states that policymakers will agree to a middle ground between the “Cliff” and
“No Cliff” scenarios…..
My plug…. (The US Fiscal Cliff scenarios are available for the US, all states and metropolitan areas
through subscription to the US Macro/Financial Forecast Database or Regional Alternative